{"id":424932,"date":"2026-02-06T15:42:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T14:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424932"},"modified":"2026-02-06T15:42:11","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T14:42:11","slug":"climate-alarmists-are-often-wrong-but-never-in-doubt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424932","title":{"rendered":"Climate Alarmists Are Often Wrong But Never in Doubt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Gary Abernathy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

January 30, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was orginally published at The Empowerment Alliance<\/a> and is re-published here with permission. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the most annoying things about climate doomsayers is the certainty with which they make their dire predictions, while simultaneously making excuses for all their past prognostications that failed to materialize. Let\u2019s revisit a few.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the early to mid-1970s, several magazine articles and a number of scientists predicted that cooling trends could usher in a new \u201cmini-ice age\u201d beginning within a few short years. Didn\u2019t happen. In fact, new crystal balls went from cold to hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A June 1989 Associated Press story quoted \u201ca senior U.N. environmental official\u201d who claimed that \u201centire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, insisted that \u201cgovernments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.\u201d Without action \u201cocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At last report, the Maldives continue to thrive \u2013 thanks largely to growing tourism! According to CBS News, in 2009 former Vice President Al Gore (always good for a chuckle) \u201ctold a U.N. climate conference that new data suggests the Arctic polar ice cap may disappear in the summertime as soon as five to seven years from now,\u201d meaning 2016 at the latest. Didn\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2000, the UK Independent ran an article quoting a scientist who suggested that within a decade, thanks to global warming, British children \u201cwon\u2019t know what snow is.\u201d Don\u2019t tell that to the British youngsters and others who experienced the severe winters of 2010, 2013, 2018, etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enough? Let\u2019s do a couple more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were numerous predictions in the early 2000s that all glaciers in Glacier National Park would disappear by 2020 or, if we were lucky, by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLater predictions delayed the glaciers\u2019 inevitable demise to 2050,\u201d according to a December 2025 article in the Daily Inter Lake. \u201cNow, researchers say there is reason to believe some of the park\u2019s perennial ice formations will persist into the 2100s.\u201d Glaciers are famously stubborn. Several news stories over the years have quoted scientists and climate alarmists predicting that New York City would disappear under water thanks to flooding due to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For instance, in 2011, on the heels of Hurricane Irene, The Guardian produced the headline, \u201cMajor storms could submerge New York City in next decade,\u201d and a subhead, \u201cSea-level rise due to climate change could cripple the city in Irene-like storm scenarios, new climate report claims.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, the only tsunami facing New York City is the flood of debt coming under socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite a track record that should discourage even the most ardent true believer, the predictions keep flying, fast and furious, most centered these days around slightly rising temperatures that will allegedly increase rainfall, create more wicked storms, and lead to drought, flood (they always cover both possibilities) or other catastrophes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimate change is real, it\u2019s happening and unless we do something about it soon, the consequences will be severe,\u201d according to Martin Krause, director of the United Nations Environment Programme\u2019s Climate Change Division. Second verse, same as the first.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While most believers in manmade climate change are part of the \u201cLet\u2019s Come Up With the Worst Case Scenario and Hope it Scares Everyone Into Action\u201d school of alarmism, it\u2019s refreshing to occasionally come across someone with a more reasonable approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fitting that bill might be Noah Kaufman, former senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers during the Biden administration, currently a senior research scholar at Columbia University\u2019s Center on Global Energy Policy and a co-director of the Resilient Energy Economies Initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a \u201clet\u2019s all calm down a minute\u201d article appearing earlier this month in The Atlantic, Kaufman \u2013 while making it clear that he personally is firmly aboard the manmade climate change bandwagon \u2013 laments the specific time-and-date panic predictions that have helped lose respect and credibility for his cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFew economists embrace these all-or-nothing views on climate policy,\u201d Kaufman writes. Kaufman points out that \u201cquantitative estimates of aggregated global damages over centuries lie far beyond our analytical capabilities. Small changes in assumptions \u2026 can yield results that appear tojustify virtually any policy response.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of the day, \u201cthese models can display a pessimistic worldview in which climate damages accelerate to catastrophic levels, or a more optimistic one in which human progress keeps damages relatively modest. They offer little help in determining which of these futures is coming.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kaufman concludes by acknowledging that \u201cthe full effects of climate change are unknowable, and a more constructive public discussion about climate policy will require getting more comfortable with that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I recommend Kaufman\u2019s article. Even though I will likely remain among those who agree that the climate routinely changes but remain skeptical about the extent of mankind\u2019s impact, I don\u2019t mind discussing it and listening to different viewpoints. Such conversation is much more palatable with someone who is not exhibiting a holier-than-thou attitude or demeaning the intelligence of anyone who disagrees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More manmade climate change believers who take a respectful, calmer and non-accusatoryapproach to the naysayers could go a long way in lowering the temperature \u2013 and don\u2019t we all agree on that objective?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gary Abernathy is a longtime newspaper editor, reporter and columnist. He was a contributing <\/em>columnist for the Washington Post from 2017-2023 and a frequent guest analyst across numerous media platforms. He is a contributing columnist for The Empowerment Alliance, which advocates for realistic approaches to energy consumption and environmental conservation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the most annoying things about climate doomsayers is the certainty with which they make their dire predictions, while simultaneously making excuses for all their past prognostications that failed to materialize. Let\u2019s revisit a few.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":424937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the certainty of climate predictions gone wrong and why a balanced conversation is essential for future climate discussions.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Debunking Climate Alarmism: Predictions vs. Reality","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMlwvQVFPVFZBQkwyTU5qSVZnV204VVdvQ2lGUk45TXZ1ZTVwMTRYbXJFQzJycmtKR2lQV3hYdFM5dWhiU2dDMHhhVXNuN2lHaHZYM2FWakxqSi0xZi05OE1pNFlpVVd1c2VJdFlhQmhtOVVzY3E1Yll2eDM1aGluX251X0h5VWliNG9uaERXUVpoX2EyeFFERDJsc3VuY0VvYnZkX1ZpSlEtMTAyNHgxMDI0LmpwZWciLCJ0eHQiOiJDbGltYXRlIEFsYXJtaXN0cyBBcmUgT2Z0ZW4gV3JvbmcgQnV0IE5ldmVyIGluIERvdWJ0IiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE1NTgxMjQ0OX0.u8CjYNlmzY-aXfqXJumPuvRjI7BtFhzA1TtY8GisFP4MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819079,691818245,691818056,691818955,691819743,691818087,691841227],"class_list":{"0":"post-424932","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-al-gore","9":"tag-catastrophic-predictions","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-climate-doomsayers","12":"tag-climate-propaganda","13":"tag-global-warming","14":"tag-quoted-scientists","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MxK","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":216548,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=216548","url_meta":{"origin":424932,"position":0},"title":"Arctic Ice at Decade-High Level: Can Doomsayers Explain?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"31\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Why were internationally acclaimed climate scientists unable to predict this marked increase in the extent of summer sea ice?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-1437.png?fit=1024%2C535&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-1437.png?fit=1024%2C535&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-1437.png?fit=1024%2C535&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/0image-1437.png?fit=1024%2C535&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":332185,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332185","url_meta":{"origin":424932,"position":1},"title":"Climate Policy Should Not Be Used to Determine Limits on Hospital Emissions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The turbulence that caused a Singapore Airlines flight to drop 6,000 feet in minutes was blamed on climate change by a hysterical media. 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