{"id":424074,"date":"2026-01-31T22:19:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T21:19:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424074"},"modified":"2026-01-31T22:19:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T21:19:19","slug":"yale-360-we-briefly-crossed-1-5c-but-we-still-have-time-to-reverse-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424074","title":{"rendered":"Yale 360: We Briefly Crossed 1.5C But We Still Have Time to Reverse Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Four<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by<\/strong> Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What does it take to properly cross one of these tipping points?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Overshoot: The World Is Hitting Point of No Return on Climate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With warming set to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, scientists are warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences \u2014 from the melting of ice sheets to the death of the Amazon rainforest \u2014 that could not be reversed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BY FRED PEARCE<\/a> \u2022 JANUARY 28, 2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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The world is poised to overshoot the goal of limiting average global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as for the first time, a three-year period, ending in 2025, has breached the threshold. And climate scientists are predicting devastating consequences, just as the world\u2019s governments appear to have lost their appetite for tackling the emissions that are causing the warming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are rapidly approaching multiple Earth system tipping points that could transform our world with devastating consequences for people and nature,\u201d says British global-systems researcher Tim Lenton, of the University of Exeter. If he and other scientists are right, then hopes currently being expressed of a temperature reset by reducing emissions after overshoot may be fanciful. Before we know it, there may be no way back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A three-year breach of 1.5 degrees does not mean we have broken the Paris limit, which is framed as a long-term average. Conventionally, scientists measure this over 20 years, to smooth out year-on-year aberrations caused by natural cycles such as the El Ni\u00f1o oscillation. Using this method, it will be several more years before researchers can say for certain if warming has reached 1.5 degrees. But according to two studies<\/a> published last year, the world has likely already surpassed this critical threshold. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without an abrupt change of course, the warming will only accelerate. James Hansen, the Columbia University climatologist who first put climate change on the world\u2019s front pages during testimony to Senate hearings in 1988, believes<\/a> we could hit 2 degrees C as soon as 2045, a forecast based on several climate models under a high-emissions scenario. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/e360.yale.edu\/features\/1.5-degrees-tipping-points<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I have a theory about 1.5C. Climate scientists appeared to be building up to a big dramatic tipping point crossed media frenzy, then the world spoiled the media campaign by abruptly jumping above their doomsday limit, likely due to the Hunga Tonga eruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Hunga Tonga volcano: impact on record warming<\/a><\/blockquote>