{"id":423920,"date":"2026-01-30T16:18:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T15:18:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423920"},"modified":"2026-01-30T16:18:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T15:18:14","slug":"barents-sea-polar-bears-thriving-despite-massive-loss-of-sea-ice-study-confirms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423920","title":{"rendered":"Barents Sea polar bears thriving despite massive loss of sea ice, study\u00a0confirms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Two<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The polarbearscience<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recently published study lead by Norwegian polar bear specialist Jon Aars found that both male and female polar bears were fatter and healthier after 1995 despite the greatest loss of sea ice of any Arctic region. However, no evidence was provided that a greater consumption of walrus and reindeer explain these results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This new paper (Aars et al. 2026) updates and expands to 2019 data for a study I\u2019ve repeatedly cited (e.g.\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>) that reported female bears in better condition between 2005-2017 than during the 1990s, despite dramatic sea ice loss in summer\u00a0and<\/em>\u00a0winter in the 2000s (Lippold et al. 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Map
From Aars et al. 2026 (Fig. 1).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Both studies contradict predictions that sea ice loss always leads to loss of body condition, and eventually, population decline (Amstrup et al. 2007; Crockford 2017; Crockford 2019).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as the authors of this latest study admit, field data from the Chukchi Sea also show polar bears in excellent condition despite sea ice loss, so Barents Sea bears are not the population to contradict the expectation that sea ice loss = loss of body condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their words, \u201cOur findings underline the importance not to extrapolate findings across populations<\/em>,\u201d yet this is exactly what all model predictions do because they use Western Hudson Bay and Southern Beaufort data almost exclusively (and thus ignore Chukchi Sea and Barents Sea data).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, and without any evidence provided, the authors speculate the Barents Sea bears are thriving because they are now eating more walrus and reindeer<\/a> than they used to do:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts think the new findings could be linked to the population recovering from that hunting pressure. That, combined with an increase in the number of walruses \u2013 and of reindeer \u2013 in recent decades, appears to have provided the bears with a temporary boost.  <\/em>[BBC, 29 January 2026<\/a>]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, there is no data provided in this paper to suggest that polar bears around Svalbard are actually consuming more walrus or reindeer. In fact, it\u2019s much more likely that increased primary productivity<\/a> (and thus greater numbers of seals and\/or fatter seals) due to longer ice-free summers is the proximate cause of better body condition in both Barents Sea and Chukchi Sea bears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Aars, J., Ieno, E.N., Andersen, M. et al. 2026.<\/strong> Body condition among Svalbard Polar bears Ursus maritimus<\/em> during a period of rapid loss of sea ice. Scientific Reports<\/em> 16<\/strong>, 2182. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-025-33227-9<\/a> Open access.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amstrup, S.C., Marcot, B.G. & Douglas, D.C. 2007.<\/strong> Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century.<\/em> US Geological Survey. Reston, VA. Pdf here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crockford, S.J. 2017.<\/strong> Testing the hypothesis that routine sea ice coverage of 3-5 mkm2 results in a greater than 30% decline in population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus<\/em>). PeerJ Preprints<\/em> 19 January 2017. Doi: 10.7287\/peerj.preprints.2737v1 Open access. https:\/\/peerj.com\/preprints\/2737\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crockford, S.J. 2019<\/strong>. The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened<\/em>. Global Warming Policy Foundation, London. Available in paperback<\/a> and ebook<\/a> formats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lippold, A., Bourgeon, S., Aars, J., et al. 2019.<\/strong> Temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in Barents Sea polar bears (Ursus maritimus<\/em>) in relation to changes in feeding habits and body condition. Environmental Science and Technolog<\/em>y 53(2):984-995. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1021\/acs.est.8b05416<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recently published study lead by Norwegian polar bear specialist Jon Aars found that both male and female polar bears were fatter and healthier after 1995 despite the greatest loss of sea ice of any Arctic region. However, no evidence was provided that a greater consumption of walrus and reindeer explain these results.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":423927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how polar bears are thriving in the Barents Sea despite sea ice loss, challenging existing predictions about their survival.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Polar Bears Thrive in Barents Sea Despite Sea Ice Loss","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMVwvQ2hhdEdQVC1JbWFnZS0yOS4tTWFpLTIwMjUtMThfMThfMDgucG5nIiwidHh0IjoiQmFyZW50cyBTZWEgcG9sYXIgYmVhcnMgdGhyaXZpbmcgZGVzcGl0ZSBtYXNzaXZlIGxvc3Mgb2Ygc2VhIGljZSwgc3R1ZHlcdTAwYTBjb25maXJtcyIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.4dFA50H8Owf__xisFJk0CcvXfmbiN_rlsvOTXBr4SYAMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691841012,691819302,691841011,691841010,691818251],"class_list":["post-423920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic-region","tag-barents-sea","tag-fatter-and-healthier","tag-jon-aars","tag-polar-bears","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/ChatGPT-Image-29.-Mai-2025-18_18_08.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Mhq","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":424041,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424041","url_meta":{"origin":423920,"position":0},"title":"Polar bears on Norwegian islands fatter and healthier despite ice loss","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/31\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Norwegian Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard have become fatter and healthier despite significant sea ice loss due to climate change. A study published in Scientific Reports on January 29, 2026, analyzed body condition data from 770 adult polar bears between 1992 and 2019.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/OIG-2023-10-23T132101.951.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/OIG-2023-10-23T132101.951.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/OIG-2023-10-23T132101.951.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/OIG-2023-10-23T132101.951.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 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Thriving","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent study published in Scientific Reports on January 29, 2026, titled \"Body condition among Svalbard Polar bears Ursus maritimus during a period of rapid loss of sea ice,\" examines how polar bears in the Svalbard region of the Barents Sea have fared amid accelerating climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate 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wasn\u2019t\u00a0true","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"In the climate change episode of his 2011 BBC\u00a0Frozen Planet\u00a0series \u2018On Thin Ice\u2019,\u00a0Sir David Attenborough told viewers\u00a0that polar bear mothers and cubs across the Arctic were starving because climate change was melting the sea ice, even as he sat beside a fat, healthy Barents Sea female.","rel":"","context":"In \"Barents Sea bears\"","block_context":{"text":"Barents Sea 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of a\u00a0climate change marketing event\u00a0made up by the activist organization Polar Bears International? I doubt it.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/08-polar-bear-eyes-2048x2048-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=423920"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":423930,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/423920\/revisions\/423930"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/423927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=423920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=423920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=423920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}