{"id":422975,"date":"2026-01-24T19:23:01","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T18:23:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422975"},"modified":"2026-01-24T19:33:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T18:33:13","slug":"wrong-mainstream-media-a-brief-1-4c-global-temperature-spike-isnt-evidence-of-climate-doom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422975","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Mainstream Media, A Brief 1.4\u00b0C Global Temperature Spike Isn\u2019t Evidence of \u2018Climate Doom\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Climate Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Screenshot<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Several media outlets including National Public Radio (NPR) and Politico recently\u00a0published stories lamenting \u201cwarnings\u201d from climate scientists about the current state of global temperature.<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politico published \u201cGlobal warming reaches 1.4C after third-hottest year on record<\/a>,\u201d by Zia Weise, while NPR posted\u00a0\u201cScientists call another near-record hot year a \u2018warning shot\u2019 from a shifting climate.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both of these articles claim that the planet has effectively reached 1.4\u00b0C of warming above pre-industrial levels, with temperatures on the Earth accelerating along an unavoidable path toward breaching the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C target, which will result in escalating risks and looming \u201ctipping points.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the data does demonstrate this spike in temperature, the framing of both articles is highly misleading, leading to a false conclusion not supported by other temperature datasets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Politico article states that \u201caverage global temperatures are now around 1.4C higher than during the pre-industrial era,\u201d and warns that \u201cpassing 1.5C risks triggering so-called tipping points,\u201d citing Copernicus Climate Change Service data<\/a> and some comments from scientists suggesting that overshoot is now inevitable. It treats the 1.4\u00b0C figure as both climatically decisive and globally unprecedented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NPR article goes even further saying,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Rising global temperatures intensify heat waves and other extreme weather, endangering people and causing billions of dollars in damage. The weather monitoring teams warn that the 2025 temperature increase is a dangerous sign of worsening storms, heat, floods and fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Samantha Burgess, strategic climate lead of the Copernicus service, said the overwhelming culprit is clear: the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cClimate change is happening. It\u2019s here. It\u2019s impacting everyone all around the world and it\u2019s our fault,\u201d Burgess told The Associated Press.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

What these outlets fail to tell readers is that Europe, with the longest and densest instrumental temperature records in the world, has already significantly exceeded 1.4\u00b0C of warming without experiencing the cascade of irreversible impacts long predicted at or near that threshold. See Figure 1 below.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
Figure 1. Berkeley Earth average European temperature showing a 2.0\u00b0C rise since about 1820. Source: http:\/\/berkeleyearth.lbl.gov\/regions\/europe<\/a> Annotated by Anthony Watts<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Long before recent headlines, European temperature series showed regional warming above global averages, yet society, infrastructure, agriculture, and public health have all continued to improve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The notion that 1.4\u00b0C or even brief excursions above 1.5\u00b0C represent a physical cliff is not supported by observational evidence. As\u00a0Climate at a Glance<\/em>\u00a0explains in\u00a0\u201cTipping Point: 1.5 Degrees Celsius Warming,\u201d<\/a>\u00a0the 1.5\u00b0C number was a politically selected policy target, not a scientifically established threshold beyond which the climate system abruptly destabilizes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, there is no evidence or data indicating any dangerous impacts from exceeding 1.5\u2103 or even 2.0\u2103 of warming above pre-industrial levels. Global average temperatures have been higher in the past during periods when human civilization flourished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article also glosses over a major short-term driver of the recent temperature spike: the January 2022\u00a0Hunga Tonga\u2013Hunga Ha\u02bbapai volcanic eruption<\/a>, which\u00a0injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor directly into the stratosphere<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas, and multiple studies have noted that this injection temporarily increased Earth\u2019s radiative forcing, contributing to unusually warm global temperatures in 2023\u20132025.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em>\u00a0has documented this effect and the media\u2019s failure to account for it in coverage collected under\u00a0its reporting on the Hunga Tonga eruption<\/a>. As the excess stratospheric water vapor gradually dissipates, its warming influence is expected to decline, undermining claims that recent warming represents a new, permanent baseline driven solely by CO\u2082.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is highly evident in Figure 2 below, with the accurate UAH satellite record<\/a> showing the plunge clearly falling from a peak in early 2024, to end the year 2025 at just 0.3\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Figure 2. The Version 6.1 global area-averaged linear temperature trend (January 1979 through December 2025) remains at +0.16 deg\/ C\/decade (+0.22 C\/decade over land, +0.13 C\/decade over oceans). Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Huntsville.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Politico\/NPR\u2019s heavy reliance on Copernicus data also deserves scrutiny. Copernicus\u2019 flagship ERA5 temperature product is not a simple thermometer-based record. It is a reanalysis, combining sparse and uneven observations with climate models to infill vast regions of the globe, especially oceans and polar areas.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em>\u00a0has repeatedly pointed out that reanalysis datasets are model-heavy reconstructions, not direct measurements, and can amplify warming signals depending on model assumptions, a problem discussed across articles indexed at\u00a0Climate Realism<\/em>\u2019s coverage of Copernicus and reanalysis datasets<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Treating such outputs as precise, definitive indicators of long-term climate thresholds gives readers a false impression of precision and certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article further implies that each additional tenth of a degree inevitably brings more danger, yet it offers little observational evidence to support that claim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), while often invoked rhetorically, is far more cautious in its actual findings, assigning low confidence to many asserted global trends in extremes and emphasizing regional variability and uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long-term outcomes that matter most to people tell a different story.\u00a0Climate at a Glance<\/em>\u00a0shows in\u00a0\u201cDeaths from Extreme Weather\u201d<\/a>\u00a0that climate-related mortality has declined dramatically over the past century, even as temperatures have risen. That reality is difficult to reconcile with claims that the world is now entering an unprecedented danger zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Politico\/NPR ultimately present is a narrative built on short-term averages, model-influenced datasets, and policy-driven thresholds, while ignoring historical context, natural variability, and known transient factors such as volcanic water vapor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Briefly touching or approaching 1.4\u00b0C or even 1.5\u00b0C does not validate years of dire predictions, especially when those predictions have repeatedly failed to materialize in regions that have already experienced comparable warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By portraying a model-reconstructed temperature figure as proof that the world is on the brink of irreversible climate danger, both Politico and NPR are grossly misleading their readers by flatly misrepresenting the evidence about the true state of the climate based upon real-world data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe has already passed the threshold portrayed by NPR and Politico as tipping points for disaster and yet no catastrophic consequences have resulted. The recent spike in warming has identifiable short-term contributors and is now fading. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Copernicus temperature reanalysis are fictions of computer models, not direct measurements of temperature. With regards to the recent spike in temperature and \u201ctipping points,\u201d the mainstream media\u2019s climate doom narrative is long on rhetoric, and short on proof \u2013 unsurprisingly, since hard data and historical evidence refutes claims of disaster.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Several media outlets including National Public Radio (NPR) and Politico recently published stories lamenting \u201cwarnings\u201d from climate scientists about the current state of global temperature. Politico published \u201cGlobal warming reaches 1.4C after third-hottest year on record,\u201d by Zia Weise, while NPR posted \u201cScientists call another near-record hot year a \u2018warning shot\u2019 from a shifting climate.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":422987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.VnIxiL06yXsCpTjH_TXuTPNQnWm97AQ9pgUw-snFlUAMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691819743,691819102,691818514,691818087,691840917,691823164,691824770,691820424,691820106],"class_list":["post-422975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-computer-models","tag-extreme-weather","tag-global-warming","tag-model-influenced-datasets","tag-national-public-radio-npr","tag-politico","tag-temperatures","tag-tipping-points","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPxogAc74LLoka44Y6LJz3BPU2ouMFh-dH4ydcFErjU4kQ2chiV3AO0nXqbm3NF_67-nalaa22WnmC8U0GcM8sldmhQHJX-BxSmKaMk9Rrtypp2UIx2lZAQcvhes72V.jpeg?fit=1436%2C791&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1M2b","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":418336,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418336","url_meta":{"origin":422975,"position":0},"title":"No, 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