{"id":422787,"date":"2026-01-24T09:57:42","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T08:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422787"},"modified":"2026-01-24T09:57:45","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T08:57:45","slug":"wrong-peace-news-even-political-conflict-hasnt-stopped-mali-from-thriving-amid-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422787","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Peace News, Even Political Conflict Hasn\u2019t Stopped Mali from Thriving Amid Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From The Climate Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By H. Sterling Burnett<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Peace News ran a story attempting to link political conflict in Mali to, particularly drought and flooding, which it says are caused by climate change. This is false. There are myriad factors contributing to the internal, devastating strife in Mali, but climate change is not among them because the climate has not measurably changed from its historical pattern of repeated droughts punctuated by flooding during irregular rainy seasons. Also, despite Mali\u2019s problems, its economy and agricultural sector, which accounts for about 80 percent of the country\u2019s workforce, have grown substantially across the period during which climate change has become a cause of international concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Peace News\u2019 story, \u201cCombating Climate Change for Peace in Mali<\/a>:\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mali is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Between 1970 and 2020, the country experienced at least 40 major climate shocks, with drought affecting around 400,000 people each year and reducing crop revenues by US$9.5 million annually, according to the World Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Mali, climate change is a major factor in conflict, according to an August 2025 report by the UN Sustainable Development Group. Due to the degradation of grazing lands from declining soil fertility, the report says, farmers are expanding their cultivation into traditional herding routes. This has led to violent conflicts between farmers and herders.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Almost every statement made in those two paragraphs is false or misleading. First, to understand if climate change has affected Mali significantly, one must understand its geography and climate history. Mali is now and has historically been an extremely arid country, lying along the thermal equator in the region commonly referred to as the torrid zone. It is among the hottest countries in the world with the Southern Sahara Desert dominating the vast majority of its territory. In recent decades, Mali\u2019s temperatures have not appreciably increased, so warming can\u2019t be driving any changes in extreme weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, evidence suggests that Mali<\/a>, like the Earth in general<\/a>, has greened extensively during the recent period of climate change with hundreds of square miles of the Sahara Desert in the country being reclaimed by vegetation, both crops intentionally planted and forests and grasslands naturally springing up (see the image, below).<\/p>\n\n\n

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This image shows the change in leaf area across the globe from 1982-2015 detected by satellite. Credits: Boston University\/R. Myneni. Image source: NASA<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Any conflicts between herders and farmer in Mali is due to land now becoming suitable for farming that wasn\u2019t previously, and the lack of secure property rights \u2013 an institutional failure of government \u2013 for the herders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To the extent that some areas have declining soil fertility, that is due to the types of cash crops that dominate in Mali. Cotton, Mali\u2019s top cash crop, is a mineral and water intensive crop to grow. Decades of monocropping cotton depletes the soil. If minerals are not added back through the application of modern fertilizers, traditional fertilizes, or by rotating crops, the soil becomes depleted. Absent secure, defined, and legally defensible property rights, farmers are likely to move on to more fertile ground. In Mali, this is common, creating conflict. But climate change is not the cause of this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both\u00a0droughts and periodic floods<\/a>\u00a0have been common throughout Mali\u2019s history, including during the 1960s and 1970s when carbon dioxide concentrations and the global average temperature were both lower than today. The Peace News article presents no evidence or data indicating either type of weather-related event have become more frequent or severe in recent years because they haven\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the hard data about Mali\u2019s agricultural<\/a> and economic growth refutes claims that recent climate change has left Mali\u2019s population worse off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mali\u2019s main crops have all increased significantly. Thus, it is not surprising that because 80 percent of Mali\u2019s workforce is involved with agriculture, the country\u2019s GDP has grown dramatically over the past 30 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization<\/a> show that in Mali, from 1994 to 2024, amid global warming:<\/p>\n\n\n\n