{"id":421742,"date":"2026-01-17T13:27:43","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T12:27:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421742"},"modified":"2026-01-17T17:55:49","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T16:55:49","slug":"global-tropical-cyclone-landfalls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421742","title":{"rendered":"Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Satellite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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From The Honest Broker<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Roger Pielke Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Satellite
Category 5 Melissa in the Gulf. Image: NOAA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Back in 2012, Jessica Weinkle<\/a>, Ryan Maue<\/a>, and I published the first peer-reviewed paper<\/a> presenting a time series of global tropical cyclone landfalls of hurricane strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that paper we concluded:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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From currently available historical TC records, we constructed a long-period global hurricane landfall dataset using a consistent methodology. We have identified considerable interannual variability in the frequency of global hurricane landfalls; but within the resolution of the available data, our evidence does not support the presence of significant long-period global or individual basin linear trends for minor, major, or total hurricanes within the period(s) covered by the available quality data. Therefore, our long-period analysis does not support claims that increasing TC landfall frequency or landfall intensity has contributed to concomitantly increasing economic losses. Because of documented multidecadal variations in TC frequency and intensity on global and basin scales, our findings strongly support the usage of long-period historical landfall datasets for trend analysis (cf. Liebmann et al. 2010<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there is continued uncertainty surrounding future changes in climate (Knutson et al. 2010<\/a>), current projections of TC frequency or intensity change may not yield an anthropogenic signal in economic loss data for many decades or even centuries (Crompton et al. 2011<\/a>). Thus, our quantitative analysis of global hurricane landfalls is consistent with previous research focused on normalized losses associated with hurricanes that have found no trends once data are properly adjusted for societal factors (e.g., Pielke et al. 2008<\/a>; Crompton and McAneney 2008<\/a>; Neumayer and Barthel 2011<\/a>; Barthel and Neumayer 2012<\/a>; Bouwer 2011<\/a>; Raghavan and Rajesh 2003<\/a>).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

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\"Map
Global landfalls 1970 to 2010 from\u00a0Weinkle et al. 2012<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Since 2012, Ryan and I have updated the dataset every January. With 13 years of additional data, the conclusions of our 2012 paper remain current.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figure below shows the updated time series for the period of available data at the global scale, 1970 to 2025. Last year was a fairly typical year, with 19 total landfalls, of which 7 were major hurricanes. Overall tropical cyclone activity<\/a> in the Northern Hemisphere was below average and above average in the Southern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total includes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n