{"id":421483,"date":"2026-01-15T16:38:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-15T15:38:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421483"},"modified":"2026-01-15T16:38:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T15:38:54","slug":"measuring-and-analysing-sea-levels-using-satellites-during-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421483","title":{"rendered":"Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites during 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"359\" data-attachment-id=\"421508\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421508\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?fit=1495%2C741&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1495,741\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0Screenshot 2026-01-15 162341\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?fit=723%2C359&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=723%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph showing cumulative sea level change in inches from 1880 to 2020, highlighting a rise of about 8 inches over the last century, with trends based on tide gauges and satellite measurements.\" class=\"wp-image-421508\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=1024%2C508&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=300%2C149&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=768%2C381&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=640%2C317&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?resize=1200%2C595&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?w=1495&amp;ssl=1 1495w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2026\/01\/14\/measuring-and-analysing-sea-levels-using-satellites-during-2025\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>By Dr. Alan Welch FBIS FRAS<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This report presents and analyses the sea level data for 2025.&nbsp; It was a roller coaster year for sea level data that turned into a \u201cHunt the Data\u201d exercise.&nbsp; As a consequence, the analyses main purpose is to link the new data to the old and produce a new methodology so that changes to sea levels in 2026 can be more easily judged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NOAA site:&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov\/socd\/lsa\/SeaLevelRise\/LSA_SLR_timeseries.php\">https:\/\/www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov\/socd\/lsa\/SeaLevelRise\/LSA_SLR_timeseries.php<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">gave data for the end of January then no more for the rest of the year.&nbsp; Does anyone know why and\/or if the data is available any other way?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NASA site:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/explore\/earth-indicators\/sea-level\">https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/earth\/explore\/earth-indicators\/sea-level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">produced data for&nbsp;<a>January, April<\/a>,&nbsp;<a>July, August, September, November and December&nbsp;<\/a>but in July 2025 NASA changed dramatically the amount of data being provided.&nbsp; Up to April 2025 the data consisted of 13 columns giving number of readings, standard deviations and results with and without a 60-day Gaussian type filter applied, with and without GIA not applied and with and without annual and semi-annual signal removed.&nbsp; The data analysed was from COLUMN 12 which was for smoothed (60-day Gaussian type filter) GMSL (GIA not applied) variation (mm);&nbsp;<a>annual and semi-annual signal&nbsp;<\/a>removed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whereas in July only 3 columns of data appear:-<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">HDR 1 year+fraction of year<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">HDR 2 GMSL (cm)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">HDR 3 GMSL with 60-day smoothing applied (cm)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">with the 3<sup>rd<\/sup>&nbsp;column being used in the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, up to April 2025 data appeared on a roughly 10-day cycle but in July this changed to a 7- day cycle.&nbsp; To add more misery the U.S. Government shut down stopped any data at all being provided for a couple of months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To show he differences in the data used for the analyses Figures 1 and 2 give the diagrams provided by NASA for April and July 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"313\" data-attachment-id=\"421485\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421485\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?fit=700%2C313&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,313\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?fit=700%2C313&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?resize=700%2C313&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph comparing satellite data from 1993 to present showing steady increase in sea level observations, labeled Figure 1 with a value of 99.5 millimeters.\" class=\"wp-image-421485\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?resize=300%2C134&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-260.png?resize=640%2C286&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How to proceed?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Up to April 2025, after 7 years of studying the NASA data, several standard Excel spreadsheets had been created producing plots of the Full Data with best fit Linear, Quadratic and Sinusoidal curves with the associated equations and plots of residuals, measured from the linear line, with best fit Quadratic and Sinusoidal curves.&nbsp; Also, statistical results have been produced and historical plots of how the so called \u201caccelerations\u201d had changed with time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One approach would be to use the data as it is with the old spreadsheets, but this would lead to very \u201cbumpy\u201d plots.&nbsp; The annual and semi-annual signal vary from -4.33 to 5.46mm which is quite large when compared with an annual average increase of about 3.3mm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A second method would be to do a moving annual average which would eliminate the bumps but would also lose a lot of the El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a effects which are useful to show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a>annual and semi-annual signal&nbsp;<\/a>is a regular variation that repeats year in year out with the same shape, so the amount involved only depends on the date in the year.&nbsp; Using this fact the signal\u2019s value at any time in the year can be ascertained from the readings with and without it included.&nbsp; This was done using the difference between columns 11 and 12 of the April 2025 data, creating a list of dates and differences then subtracting the year value from the date.&nbsp; This leaves 2 columns for the partial year date and the annual and semi-annual signal which is shown in figure 3.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" data-attachment-id=\"421487\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421487\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-261.png?fit=600%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,400\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-261.png?fit=600%2C400&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-261.png?resize=600%2C400&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph showing the annual and semi-annual signal from NASA for April 2025, plotting signal in mm against the fraction of a year.\" class=\"wp-image-421487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-261.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-261.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An 8-order polynomial curve was fitted to the graph in figure 3 using the LINEST Function in Excel, resulting in<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">y = -6643.928484 x<sup>8<\/sup>&nbsp;+ 25497.575242 x<sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 37890.084128 x<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;+ 27118.787657 x<sup>5<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 9446.372672 x<sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp;+<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1420.212996 x<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 37.494970 x<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 18.784928 x + 0.200699&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Equation 1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The order and accuracy may look excessive, but a 6-order was found to be too inaccurate at the extreme ends of the graph and although 2 less significant figures only changed the graph slightly it was decided to stay with this equation.&nbsp; Figure 4 shows a plot of the actual and fitted curves indicating only a small inaccuracy at the extreme ends of about 0.1mm.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"386\" data-attachment-id=\"421488\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421488\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?fit=700%2C386&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,386\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?fit=700%2C386&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?resize=700%2C386&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A line graph comparing an actual signal (blue line) and an 8-order polynomial fit (red line) over the fraction of a year. A detailed inset graph shows a close-up of the signals between 0.9 and 1 fraction of a year.\" class=\"wp-image-421488\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?resize=300%2C165&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-262.png?resize=640%2C353&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new data with annual and semi-annual signals can now be processed by taking the sea level and calculate the part year by using a calculation in Excel<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Part year = year \u2013 INT(year)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">and then calculating the annual and semi-annual signal using Equation 1.&nbsp; This can then be taken off the listed sea level and the normal processing carried out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>I wish life was that easy.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This process was applied to the NASA Aug 2025 data which only had data with the signal included.&nbsp; The result was not satisfactory with the Aug data having a seemingly larger variation than what was shown in previous data releases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another source of readings is from our friends at the University of Colardo. Their site&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/sealevel.colorado.edu\/data\">https:\/\/sealevel.colorado.edu\/data<\/a>&nbsp;is a useful source of information even if you don\u2019t like the conclusions they reach like extrapolated sea levels in 2100.&nbsp; The site has 2 sets of processed data shown in figures 5 and 6.&nbsp; The \u201cacceleration\u201d indicated is 0.071mm\/year<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;which is line with other estimations.&nbsp; Strangely this site has removed several figures for analyses carried out between 2020 and 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"306\" data-attachment-id=\"421490\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421490\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?fit=700%2C306&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,306\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?fit=700%2C306&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?resize=700%2C306&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 5: Graph illustrating mean sea level (MSL) changes from 1995 to 2025, showing data from various satellite missions including TOPEX, Jason-1, Jason-2, Jason-3, and Sentinel-6, highlighting average rates and acceleration.\" class=\"wp-image-421490\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?resize=300%2C131&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-263.png?resize=640%2C280&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Repeating the process shown in Figure 3 resulted in<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"449\" data-attachment-id=\"421491\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421491\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?fit=600%2C449&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,449\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?fit=600%2C449&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?resize=600%2C449&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph showing the annual and semi-annual signal from the University of Colorado for August 2025, with the x-axis labeled 'Fraction of a Year' and the y-axis labeled 'Signal mm'.\" class=\"wp-image-421491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?resize=400%2C300&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-264.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The equation for an eight-order polynomial is given by Equation 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">y = -7765.207058 x<sup>8<\/sup>&nbsp;+ 32631.342618 x<sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 54125.59435 x<sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;+ 44768.098468 x<sup>5<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 19273.077711 x<sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp;+<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">4111.056244 x<sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 321.22496 x<sup>2<\/sup>&nbsp;\u2013 25.210076 x + 1.282815&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Equation 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The comparison of this eight-order polynomial with the actual values is shown in Figure 8.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"421493\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421493\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?fit=700%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,405\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?fit=700%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?resize=700%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph comparing the actual signal and an 8-order polynomial over a fraction of a year, with an inset showing a close-up of the signal behavior near the end of the timeframe.\" class=\"wp-image-421493\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?resize=300%2C174&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-265.png?resize=640%2C370&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shows a similar form with some small differences in shape and is generally about 30% more than in Figure 3.&nbsp; The best option therefore is to use the data as supplied by NASA and accept that any graphs will be affected by the annual signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sets of data analysed are therefore January and April 2025 with the full data and July, August, September , November,&nbsp; and December 2025 with the reduced data.&nbsp; The data for April 2025 and December 2025 will both be processed for comparison.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 9 and 10 show the linear and quadratic best fits of the full data.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"283\" data-attachment-id=\"421494\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421494\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?fit=700%2C283&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,283\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?fit=700%2C283&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?resize=700%2C283&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph displaying NASA sea level readings up to April 2025, featuring a linear trend line and data points plotted over time after 1993.\" class=\"wp-image-421494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?resize=300%2C121&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-266.png?resize=640%2C259&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The differences in the equation\u2019s coefficients seem larger than would be expected but it is more revealing the change year on year with consistent sets of data so 2026 data will be more revealing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The residuals are plotted in Figures 11 and 12 together with the quadratic best fit curves and the standard deviations of the errors added.&nbsp; To check this process is carried out correctly the quadratic terms are compared with that for the full data and the linear fits checked as being given by y = 0 x + 0.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"260\" data-attachment-id=\"421496\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421496\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,260\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?resize=700%2C260&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 11: Residuals plotted against time, showing a quadratic fit with a red curve and a standard deviation of 1.58.\" class=\"wp-image-421496\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?resize=300%2C111&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-267.png?resize=640%2C238&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Next in Figures 13 and 14, the residuals are plotted together with a sinusoidal curve having an amplitude of 4.2 mm and a period of 29 years.\u00a0 The value of 29 years has been used for a couple of years having been originally eyed in and is probably not quite the best fit curve but not far off.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"260\" data-attachment-id=\"421497\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421497\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,260\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?resize=700%2C260&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 13: Plot showing residuals to a straight line from a sinusoidal fit over time since January 1983, featuring a red curve and blue data points, with a standard deviation of 1.00.\" class=\"wp-image-421497\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?resize=300%2C111&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-268.png?resize=640%2C238&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The standard deviations of errors with the sinusoidal curve are lower than the quadratic for both the April and December analyses.&nbsp; The inclusion of the annual and semi-annual signal greatly increases the standard deviation for both curves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 15 to 18 show histogram plots of errors for the two analyses.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"475\" data-attachment-id=\"421499\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421499\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-269.png?fit=600%2C475&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,475\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-269.png?fit=600%2C475&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-269.png?resize=600%2C475&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 15: Histogram titled 'Quadratic - Residual' showing data distribution with standard deviation S.D = 3.16.\" class=\"wp-image-421499\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-269.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-269.png?resize=300%2C238&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"483\" data-attachment-id=\"421500\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421500\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-270.png?fit=600%2C483&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,483\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-270.png?fit=600%2C483&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-270.png?resize=600%2C483&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 17: Histogram displaying 'Sinusoidal - Residual' data with a standard deviation of 3.00.\" class=\"wp-image-421500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-270.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-270.png?resize=300%2C242&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 15 and 17 show more normal distributions whereas in Figures 16 and 18 the shape of the&nbsp;<a>annual and semi-annual signal&nbsp;<\/a>makes them slightly skew.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 19 and 20 shows the result of the spectral analysis for the full data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"260\" data-attachment-id=\"421502\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421502\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,260\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?fit=700%2C260&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?resize=700%2C260&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 19: Spectral analysis graph for full data of April 2025, displaying amplitude against period years.\" class=\"wp-image-421502\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?resize=300%2C111&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-271.png?resize=640%2C238&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both show that there is a very long-term variation and in figure 20 the annual and semi-annual signal appears as a spike at a period of 1 year.&nbsp; On this plot it appears very small&nbsp; compared with other peaks due to Solar and Lunar cycles but is better judged on the residual spectral analysis shown in figure 22 below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 21 and 22 shows the result of the spectral analysis for the residuals in the NASA analysis.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"270\" data-attachment-id=\"421503\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421503\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?fit=700%2C270&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,270\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?fit=700%2C270&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?resize=700%2C270&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graphs titled 'Spectral Analysis of Residuals - Apr 2025' and 'Spectral Analysis of Residuals - Dec 2025', showing amplitude values against period years, with annotations indicating peak amplitudes at specific periods.\" class=\"wp-image-421503\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?resize=300%2C116&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-272.png?resize=640%2C247&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 23 and 24 plot the \u201cacceleration\u201d values against the date they were determined based on the data from the start of 1993 up to that date.\u00a0 The effect of El Ni\u00f1os and the annual and semi-annual signal can be seen. If the residuals had followed a sinusoidal variation based on the 29-year sinusoidal curve an equivalent set of \u201caccelerations\u201d could have been determined.\u00a0 Remember the curve labelled \u201csinusoidal\u201d is\u00a0<strong>NOT<\/strong>\u00a0a sinusoidal curve but a curve of \u201caccelerations\u201d based on the residuals having a sinusoidal variation.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"473\" data-attachment-id=\"421505\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421505\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?fit=700%2C473&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,473\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?fit=700%2C473&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?resize=700%2C473&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph comparing acceleration (mm\/yr\u00b2) predictions for the years ending April 2025 (Figure 23) and December 2025 (Figure 24). Both graphs display blue dot markers for NASA readings and a sinusoidal red curve fitting the data. The x-axis represents years from 2012 to 2028, while the y-axis shows acceleration values. Annotations indicate the title and analysis results.\" class=\"wp-image-421505\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?resize=300%2C203&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-273.png?resize=640%2C432&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Figures 25 and 26 show the \u00a0\u201caccelerations\u201d as at the end of Jan 2025 with the long term predicted \u00a0\u201caccelerations\u201d up to the 2060\u2019s calculated using quadratic curve fitting to a set of data obtained from a 29-year curve.\u00a0 The validity or not of the curve will be seen earlier by about 2034 when, if correct, \u201caccelerations\u201d will be approaching values seen in the long-term Tidal Gauges i.e. values of about 0.01 mm\/year<sup>2<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"287\" data-attachment-id=\"421506\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=421506\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?fit=700%2C287&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"700,287\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?fit=700%2C287&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?resize=700%2C287&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Figure 25: Graph displaying acceleration (in mm\/yr) over time, with data points representing NASA readings and Total Tide Gauge readings. Includes trend lines and annotations.\" class=\"wp-image-421506\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?w=700&amp;ssl=1 700w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?resize=300%2C123&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-274.png?resize=640%2C262&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No conclusions about sea levels during 2025 have been deduced.&nbsp; The comparisons between April 2025 and December 2025 show no major differences and so the ongoing work must turn to the changes during 2026.&nbsp; Figure 26 is considered the most revealing graph, now somewhat complicated by the annual and semi-annual signal, which masks the El Ni\u00f1o variations, but assuming no more complications with data presentation by NASA there should be a steady drop in \u201caccelerations\u201d throughout 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If any readers have stayed the course, I wish them all the best for 2026 and hopefully I\u2019ll be reporting on 2026 in twelve months\u2019 time .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><strong># # # # #<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This report presents and analyses the sea level data for 2025.\u00a0 It was a roller coaster year for sea level data that turned into a \u201cHunt the Data\u201d exercise.\u00a0 As a consequence, the analyses main purpose is to link the new data to the old and produce a new methodology so that changes to sea levels in 2026 can be more easily judged.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":421508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMVwvMFNjcmVlbnNob3QtMjAyNi0wMS0xNS0xNjIzNDEtMTAyNHg1MDgucG5nIiwidHh0IjoiTWVhc3VyaW5nIGFuZCBBbmFseXNpbmcgU2VhIExldmVscyB1c2luZyBTYXRlbGxpdGVzIGR1cmluZyAyMDI1IiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE1NTgxMjQ0OX0.S6p2b2TKGhi4S2Ok0OmBtmUHLQfK_LWKmG2-QRFr-yMMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840735,691820093,691840736],"class_list":["post-421483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-nasa-data","tag-sea-level","tag-university-of-colardo","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1LE7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":414935,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414935","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":0},"title":"NOAA Sea Levels","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/27\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"This study consists of two parts: - Part 1 \u2013 Variation of NOAA Sea Levels globally and for the 24 sub-areas. Part 2 \u2013 Variation of NOAA Sea Level data based on individual satellites. Most of the figures can be found in 2 Google Drive files details of which can\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)\"","block_context":{"text":"NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPSLNvp4_kbB7uSwjaeL5Mp9ciqFK6L_mxJuoAmAj6mEIjBpkjfH99Oc60rtOvY5m4dk4hjrgPAa-mT5R7Ed90RnkHvcRkEa6R5iHsSqAnLw5OBVtSeoCktixviBqmc-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPSLNvp4_kbB7uSwjaeL5Mp9ciqFK6L_mxJuoAmAj6mEIjBpkjfH99Oc60rtOvY5m4dk4hjrgPAa-mT5R7Ed90RnkHvcRkEa6R5iHsSqAnLw5OBVtSeoCktixviBqmc-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPSLNvp4_kbB7uSwjaeL5Mp9ciqFK6L_mxJuoAmAj6mEIjBpkjfH99Oc60rtOvY5m4dk4hjrgPAa-mT5R7Ed90RnkHvcRkEa6R5iHsSqAnLw5OBVtSeoCktixviBqmc-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPSLNvp4_kbB7uSwjaeL5Mp9ciqFK6L_mxJuoAmAj6mEIjBpkjfH99Oc60rtOvY5m4dk4hjrgPAa-mT5R7Ed90RnkHvcRkEa6R5iHsSqAnLw5OBVtSeoCktixviBqmc-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPSLNvp4_kbB7uSwjaeL5Mp9ciqFK6L_mxJuoAmAj6mEIjBpkjfH99Oc60rtOvY5m4dk4hjrgPAa-mT5R7Ed90RnkHvcRkEa6R5iHsSqAnLw5OBVtSeoCktixviBqmc-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255812,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255812","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":1},"title":"30 Years of Measuring and Analysing Sea Levels using Satellites","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I find Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses interesting and feel strongly that Dr. Welch\u2019s analyses deserve to be seen and discussed.","rel":"","context":"In \"NASA\"","block_context":{"text":"NASA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=nasa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0359500989.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416071","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":2},"title":"Does the Global Sea-Level Rise Have a Sinusoidal Variation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The question \u201cWhy does the Global Sea Level Rise have a sinusoidal variation with a period of about 26 years?\u201d was asked in the comments to one of my papers in 2023. My reply pointed out that the satellite coverage was only 95% and so what was happening in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"NOAA data\"","block_context":{"text":"NOAA data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=noaa-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426873,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426873","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":3},"title":"WUWT Leads The Way Again","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/18\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"So \u2026 can we put this question to bed?\u00a0 There is no evidence of acceleration in the actual tide gauge sea level data, and the apparent acceleration in the satellite data is merely an artifact of splicing disparate satellite records.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0-Sea-levels-town.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":298252,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=298252","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":4},"title":"Maine Sea Level Panic","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"So I open my electronic window onto the world this morning, and I find lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth about a projected sea level rise in the US state of Maine.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0PortlandHeadLight.jpg?fit=1200%2C748&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0PortlandHeadLight.jpg?fit=1200%2C748&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0PortlandHeadLight.jpg?fit=1200%2C748&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0PortlandHeadLight.jpg?fit=1200%2C748&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0PortlandHeadLight.jpg?fit=1200%2C748&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":453706,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=453706","url_meta":{"origin":421483,"position":5},"title":"Technical Note on the Possible Variation in Sea Level Rise \u201cAccelerations\u201d over the Next 5 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"(WARNING \u2013 this paper contains images of 5-year projections in sea levels that some readers may find disturbing.) The next 5 years may be a good opportunity to judge how the \u201cglobal\u201d sea level rises are changing, especially with respect to the perceived \u201caccelerations\u201d. The terms \u201cglobal\u201d and \u201caccelerations\u201d are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Technical-Note-on-the-Possible-Variation-in-Sea-Level-Rise-Accelerations-over-the-Next-5-Years.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Technical-Note-on-the-Possible-Variation-in-Sea-Level-Rise-Accelerations-over-the-Next-5-Years.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Technical-Note-on-the-Possible-Variation-in-Sea-Level-Rise-Accelerations-over-the-Next-5-Years.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Technical-Note-on-the-Possible-Variation-in-Sea-Level-Rise-Accelerations-over-the-Next-5-Years.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Technical-Note-on-the-Possible-Variation-in-Sea-Level-Rise-Accelerations-over-the-Next-5-Years.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-162341.png?fit=1495%2C741&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=421483"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":421510,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/421483\/revisions\/421510"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/421508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=421483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=421483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=421483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}