{"id":420929,"date":"2026-01-11T13:30:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T12:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420929"},"modified":"2026-01-11T14:29:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T13:29:43","slug":"surface-air-temperature-trends-climate-models-vs-observations-1979-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420929","title":{"rendered":"Surface Air Temperature Trends, Climate Models vs Observations, 1979-2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Bar<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Roy Spencer, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

January 9th, 2026 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is just a short update regarding how global surface air temperature (Tsfc) trends are tracking 34 CMIP6 climate models through 2025. The following plot shows the Tsfc trends, 1979-2025, ranked from the warmest to the coolest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cObservations\u201d is an average of 4 datasets: HadCRUT5, NOAAGlobalTemp Version 6 (now featuring AI, of course), ERA5 (a reanalysis dataset), and the Berkeley 1\u00d71 deg. dataset, which produces a trend identical to HadCRUT5 (+0.205 C\/decade).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I consider reanalyses to be in the class of \u201cobservations\u201d since they are constrained to match, in some average sense, the measurements made from the surface, weather balloons, global commercial aircraft, satellites, and the kitchen sink.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Bar<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The observations moved up one place in the rankings since the last time I made one of these plots, mainly due to an anomalously warm 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is just a short update regarding how global surface air temperature (Tsfc) trends are tracking 34 CMIP6 climate models through 2025. The following plot shows the Tsfc trends, 1979-2025, ranked from the warmest to the coolest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":420933,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvaTAud3AuY29tXC9jbGltYXRlLXNjaWVuY2UucHJlc3NcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjZcLzAxXC8wUmFua2VkLUNNSVA2LXZzLU9icy1Uc2ZjLXdhcm1pbmctdHJlbmRzLTE5NzktMjAyNS0xNTM2eDEyODMtMS5qcGc_Zml0PTcyMyUyQzYwNCZzc2w9MSIsInR4dCI6IlN1cmZhY2UgQWlyIFRlbXBlcmF0dXJlIFRyZW5kcywgQ2xpbWF0ZSBNb2RlbHMgdnMgT2JzZXJ2YXRpb25zLCAxOTc5LTIwMjUiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.3SpD2VTcpF0mO7tKq2HYjdyyw8ZGqrBkPTTIq77NjYkMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840649,691840650,691840648],"class_list":{"0":"post-420929","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-tsfc-trends","9":"tag-1979-2025","10":"tag-global-surface-air-temperature-tsfc","12":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Ranked-CMIP6-vs-Obs-Tsfc-warming-trends-1979-2025-1536x1283-1.jpg?fit=1536%2C1283&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Lvb","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":421404,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421404","url_meta":{"origin":420929,"position":0},"title":"Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends, 1979-2025: The Epic Climate Model Failure Continues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"As a follow-on to my\u00a0recent post\u00a0regarding global surface air temperature trends (1979-2025) and how they compare to climate models, this is an update on a similar comparison for tropical tropospheric temperature trends, courtesy of tabulations made by John Christy. It also represents an update to my popular\u00a0\u201cepic fail\u201d blog post\u00a0from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-greenhouse-gas-ghg"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0Screenshot-2026-01-15-101000.png?fit=1200%2C602&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":299670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299670","url_meta":{"origin":420929,"position":1},"title":"U.S.A. Temperature Trends, 1979-2023: Models vs. Observations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For the summer season, there are 26 models exhibiting warmer trends than the observations, and only 1 model with a weaker warming trend. The satellite tropospheric temperature trend is weakest of all.","rel":"","context":"In \"CMIP6 climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"CMIP6 climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cmip6-climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Landscape.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301114,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301114","url_meta":{"origin":420929,"position":2},"title":"Proof that the Spencer & Christy Method of Plotting Temperature Time Series is Best","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The goal here is to plot multiple temperature time series on a single graph in such a way the their different rates of long-term warming (usually measured by linear warming trends) are best reflected by their placement on the graph, without hiding those differences.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model data\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0Screenshot-2024-02-10-205706.png?fit=1128%2C897&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420006,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420006","url_meta":{"origin":420929,"position":3},"title":"UAH v6.1 Global Temperature Update for December 2025: +0.30 deg. 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