{"id":420446,"date":"2026-01-08T10:05:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T09:05:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420446"},"modified":"2026-01-08T10:05:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-08T09:05:17","slug":"energy-transition-meltdown-could-mean-global-bifurcation-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420446","title":{"rendered":"Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

“Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation” is an article published in late December 2025 by Vijay Jayaraj, at the CO\u2082 Coalition.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jayaraj argues that 2025 marked a turning point where major energy companies abandoned aggressive “green” commitments, exposing the net-zero energy transition as an unrealistic “fantasy” driven by bureaucracy rather than economics or science.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He concludes that without heavy subsidies, green megaprojects (e.g., carbon capture) are uneconomical, and corporations are prioritizing shareholder returns over ESG pressures.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The CO2 Coalition\u00b4s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Vijay Jayaraj<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

History will likely remember 2025 as the year energy corporatists finally stopped pretending there is a climate crisis. For a decade, a bizarre theater of the absurd played out as titans of the oil and gas industry apologized for their core business while pledging allegiance to a \u201cgreen transition\u201d that existed mostly in the imaginations of Western bureaucrats. But the curtain has seemingly fallen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ExxonMobil, one of the world\u2019s largest energy producers, has slashed $10 billion<\/a> from its low-carbon investment commitments through 2030. Simultaneously, the company announced that it expects $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 to be powered primarily by increases in oil and gas production, which will push daily output to 5.5 million barrels of oil equivalent by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not a company abandoning climate responsibility but rather at last recognizing what has long been obvious: The path prescribed by the climate industrial complex is economically destructive and operationally impossible \u2013 even with massive government subsidies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, the global energy strategy has been surreal. Companies that built the modern world on the back of energy-dense hydrocarbons indulged those celebrating the arrival of wind turbines and solar panels to power civilization. But reality, stubborn and unforgiving, has interrupted the psychedelic revelry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ExxonMobil\u2019s low-carbon investments will be paced to policy support and customer demand, says the company. That is corporate speak meaning that spending on green projects is paused unless the government \u2013 using our tax dollars \u2013 subsidizes the risk or until a market exists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megaprojects, once heralded as the future, are now in line for deferral. Why? Because without taxpayer handouts, the economics of trying to bury underground a plant food like carbon dioxide simply do not work \u2013 and defy common sense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy sector is pivoting from a strategy of \u201cgrow clean at all costs\u201d to \u201creturns first, transition last.\u201d \u201cGreen\u201d projects are being relegated to a secondary capital bucket \u2013 a token for good PR instead of a core activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s Shell and Aker BP and Canada\u2019s Enbridge have withdrawn from the Science Based Targets initiative<\/a> to establish \u201cscience-based emissions reductions.\u201d This was a retreat from what is described as a \u201ccredible, science-based net-zero framework\u201d because there was neither credibility nor science. It was a political suicide pact. The energy giants looked at the cliff\u2019s edge and refused to jump<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

British multinational BP, having abandoned its promise to go \u201cBeyond Petroleum,\u201d has raised its oil and gas spending and softened its renewable targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ENEOS Holdings, a Japanese refiner, has discarded hydrogen production targets<\/a>, with CEO Tomohide Miyata explaining that \u201cthe shift toward a carbon-neutral society appears to be slowing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These U-turns represent a renaissance in policy realism. Energy needs do not disappear because politicians make speeches at climate summits or corporations allocate funds to ESG programs or governments attempt to control consumption and choices of appliances and automobiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second thoughts about an inevitably doomed \u201cgreen\u201d transition is a victory for the single mother in the U.S. trying to budget for winter heating and for the small business owner in the U.K. whose margins are crushed<\/a> by one of the highest commercial electricity rates in the world. And for the billions of people in developing nations, this pivot could be salvation from generational poverty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question now is whether governments will recognize what corporations have made clear: that the energy transition was a fantasy infused with scientific language and draped in moralistic gingerbread. Or will they continue to increase subsidies and regulations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Very likely, there will be a bifurcation: on the one hand, western bureaucracies, particularly in Europe, continuing an economic decline under mandates and taxes, and on the other, pragmatic governments, many of them in Asia, pursuing prosperity with fuels and technologies that work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This commentary was first published by Daily Caller<\/a> <\/em>on December 25, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vijay Jayaraj is a Science and Research Associate at the CO2<\/sub> Coalition<\/a>, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor\u2019s in engineering from Anna University, India.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s New!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The CO2<\/sub><\/em> Coalition has released its new episode of the Climate Debrief<\/em> Podcast<\/em> featuring Jules de Waart (Part 1). Watch the full video here<\/a><\/em>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation” is an article published in late December 2025 by Vijay Jayaraj, at the CO\u2082 Coalition.
\nJayaraj argues that 2025 marked a turning point where major energy companies abandoned aggressive “green” commitments, exposing the net-zero energy transition as an unrealistic “fantasy” driven by bureaucracy rather than economics or science.
\nHe concludes that without heavy subsidies, green megaprojects (e.g., carbon capture) are uneconomical, and corporations are prioritizing shareholder returns over ESG pressures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":420454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how 2025 marked a shift in energy strategies as companies abandon green commitments for realistic economic practices.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Energy Transition Meltdown: A Shift in Global Energy Strategy","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMVwvQVFNNnVBU0NoNnNZM1ZsOUd6UmJ4TkpsZmFWUWRLaTZGMEFPeFQ1SlVKQzlXYjlublRDU1hxSVU1Tmw4RVFBNTRyQkZkaUllQ1lBTnhTVlJXYUg5d1FUSkFyYU53OFFNRW9OczRydnlJN3Q2WG54N041ZGtFdHhkQnlkWVE3V1ktMTAyNHg2MjMuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IkVuZXJneSBUcmFuc2l0aW9uIE1lbHRkb3duIENvdWxkIE1lYW4gR2xvYmFsIEJpZnVyY2F0aW9uIiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE1NTgxMjQ0OX0.50F7D13meDLbdqLD3eTcdVmuEVrDqA-Xw0THfCMwDZIMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840412,691819194,691819148,691819094,691819831,691821543],"class_list":["post-420446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-green-transition-2","tag-exxonmobil","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-renewable-green-energy","tag-shell","tag-wind-turbines-and-solar-panels","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1447%2C881&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Lno","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":419163,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419163","url_meta":{"origin":420446,"position":0},"title":"Energy Transition Meltdown Could Mean Global Bifurcation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/30\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"History will likely remember 2025 as the year energy corporatists finally stopped pretending there is a climate crisis. 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