{"id":419411,"date":"2026-01-01T21:18:02","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T20:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419411"},"modified":"2026-01-01T21:18:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T20:18:04","slug":"no-yale-climate-connections-dramatic-photos-dont-prove-climate-change-effects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419411","title":{"rendered":"No, Yale Climate Connections, Dramatic Photos Don\u2019t Prove Climate Change Effects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Historical
The Dust Bowl<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Climate Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The recent article in Yale Climate Connections, \u201cSix photos show how climate change shaped our world in 2025<\/a>,\u201d by Samantha Harrington, presents a photo-driven narrative asserting that wildfires, floods, heat waves, hurricanes, and droughts in 2025 were \u201cmade more devastating and deadly by climate change.\u201d This is outright false. The piece relies on striking images and rapid attribution claims to imply a climate causation but offers no hard evidence to support such claims and measured trends refute such claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article states that these images \u201cshow the consequences of our warming climate in action,\u201d and repeatedly asserts that climate change \u201cmade\u201d specific events more intense or likely, citing groups such as World Weather Attribution and Climate Central. The emotional power of the photographs is undeniable. But photographs are snapshots in time; they say nothing about the 30-year trends<\/strong> required to establish climate<\/a>, nor do they substitute for long-term observational evidence. More importantly, climate is a statistical construct, an average of weather over 30 years, not a force of nature. Only weather is a force of nature, and weather events are what do the damage in these photos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A single fire scar, a flooded living room, or a satellite image of storm damage cannot establish a climate trend any more than a single cold snap disproves warming. This basic standard is precisely why meteorological agencies use 30-year normals. By presenting six isolated events\u2014each framed as \u201cmade worse\u201d by climate change\u2014Yale Climate Connections collapses weather into climate and invites readers to infer trends that the evidence does not demonstrate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you step away from photos and examine history and measurements, the story becomes far more nuanced. For hurricanes, long-term records summarized at Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes<\/strong><\/a> show no clear upward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or accumulated cyclone energy that would justify claims of steadily worsening storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For floods, Climate at a Glance: Floods<\/strong><\/a> documents the lack of a consistent global increase in flood frequency or magnitude, a conclusion echoed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For wildfires, Climate at a Glance: Wildfires<\/strong><\/a> explains that fire extent is heavily influenced by land management, ignition sources, and fuel loads, not temperature alone, with long-term trends varying widely by region. Heat waves<\/a> and heavy rain events likewise show mixed regional behavior rather than a uniform global escalation, as summarized across the Climate at a Glance extreme-weather pages<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article leans heavily on rapid-attribution claims\u2014statements that climate change made a given event \u201ctwo to four degrees hotter\u201d or \u201c700 times more likely.\u201d These claims are derived from models comparing a simulated present world to a simulated counterfactual world without added greenhouse gases. They are not direct measurements. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)<\/strong><\/a> makes clear that attribution confidence varies widely by event type and region, and that uncertainties remain substantial. Later references to IPCC AR6 often disappear from media coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em> has repeatedly debunked World Weather Attribution\u2019s and Climate Central\u2019s attribution claims, showing both that the factual claims of an impact between climate change and specified extreme weather events can\u2019t be discovered in the data and that the methodology used to make such a connection is flawed, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equally important is what the article ignores. Disasters are driven by exposure and vulnerability as much as by weather. Population growth in floodplains, development in fire-prone landscapes, inadequate drainage, poor forest management, and aging infrastructure all magnify damage. A flooded Texas home photographed in July reflects zoning decisions, river engineering, or warning systems\u2014or lack thereof\u2014that determine outcomes, not, in this case, a changed climate. A burned hillside in California says is indicative of fuel buildup after decades of fire suppression and inaction to prevent fuel buildup, not worsening drought or heat \u2013 neither of which are in evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s the key point: photos can capture damage, but they cannot diagnose causes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Case in point, below is a photo from the year 1900:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Historic<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By looking at it, you can\u2019t determine the cause of that damage. It might be an earthquake, a tornado, hurricane, or some other high wind event. It might even be a demolition in progress. You just can\u2019t tell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without the context of the event, any attribution of cause is purely speculative. That context is provided here: THE HISTORY OF GALVESTON AND THE 1900 STORM<\/a>, which was a hurricane believed to be of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the same storm happened today, rest assured that experts and media armed with rapid response \u201cattribution science\u201d would rush to use those same pictures to assert that climate change was somehow responsible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em> has repeatedly documented how photo-centric storytelling and rapid attribution are used to oversell certainty. Readers can see a catalog of critiques of wildfire, flood, hurricane, and heat-wave attribution claims at its coverage of extreme weather<\/strong><\/a>, where media assertions are compared against observational records and IPCC findings. Likewise, Climate Realism\u2019s many analyses of so called \u201cattribution science\u201d<\/strong><\/a> shows how model-based probability statements are routinely presented as settled fact, even when underlying data are sparse or contradictory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps most telling, the article never asks whether these kinds of images would have been possible in earlier decades. The answer is yes. History is filled with devastating floods, fires, storms, and droughts long before modern CO\u2082 emissions rose. What has changed most is not the existence of extremes, but the ubiquity of cameras, drones, satellites, and social media\u2014ensuring that every disaster is now documented in high resolution but falsely and instantly framed as evidence of \u201cclimate change\u201d by narrative driven media outlets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By substituting photographs for trends and models for measurements, Yale Climate Connections misleads readers into believing that six images can \u201cshow how climate change shaped our world.\u201d They cannot. Climate is measured over decades, not captured in a frame. Until media reporting consistently distinguishes weather from climate and imagery from evidence, readers will keep getting a powerful yet false visual narrative. Only long-term trends can suggest that climate change is making weather worse and photographs can\u2019t capture trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The recent article in Yale Climate Connections, \u201cSix photos show how climate change shaped our world in 2025,\u201d by Samantha Harrington, presents a photo-driven narrative asserting that wildfires, floods, heat waves, hurricanes, and droughts in 2025 were \u201cmade more devastating and deadly by climate change.\u201d This is outright false. The piece relies on striking images and rapid attribution claims to imply a climate causation but offers no hard evidence to support such claims and measured trends refute such claims.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":419416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the Dust Bowl's impact on climate narratives and how media misuse imagery to assert climate change correlations without evidence.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Debunking Climate Change Claims: The Dust Bowl Perspective","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMVwvQVFNRUo4eFFvZkNZUnZmaEdjQzZNY3YyUHRKSVNzUTZ1LVgxTDNQeXpENWRnZS13SE5FZGtLaG5WcG1saFUwVmcxWUxHZjRmRWJJZlliSlVxRUQzMnNzd080dlhIclNPb0pXWWFaWDB3WG1YU3g3MGVwTFFzSEI2MVRKU2E1cWIuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6Ik5vLCBZYWxlIENsaW1hdGUgQ29ubmVjdGlvbnMsIERyYW1hdGljIFBob3RvcyBEb25cdTIwMTl0IFByb3ZlIENsaW1hdGUgQ2hhbmdlIEVmZmVjdHMiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.hjRCOR2gpPPJHfeuxMmueL7GKyXYQH05tdyztFH7_eEMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834120,691818056,691820525,691819070,691818104,691840455,691839922,691818913,691840454],"class_list":{"0":"post-419411","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-central-cc","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-trends","11":"tag-floods","12":"tag-hurricanes","13":"tag-samantha-harrington","14":"tag-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-ar6","15":"tag-wildfires","16":"tag-yale-climate-connections","18":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQMEJ8xQofCYRvfhGcC6Mcv2PtJISsQ6u-X1L3PyzD5dge-wHNEdkKhnVpmlhU0Vg1YLGf4fEbIfYbJUqED32sswO4vXHrSOoJWYaZX0wXmXSx70epLQsHB61TJSa5qb.jpeg?fit=1000%2C608&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1L6H","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":417826,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417826","url_meta":{"origin":419411,"position":0},"title":"Why Waste Money on a Climate Health Forecasting Tool, Yale, When Climate Related Health Issues Are Declining?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at Yale Climate Connections (YCC) titled \u201cClimate change is boosting health care costs\u201d discusses a new online forecasting tool that tells employers extreme weather is getting worse due to climate change and will impact health more and thus raise insurance costs in the future. This is false.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO3dO3vt9IE0MDl_jD7q9PYtJniiyWItO-KVDzlMj-X1nphghTBPCNCI1Ygygax1Ec31aZGxStMceC_KSwbufJVBd31PAAeE9XrI0JdITZ0aZ0lrQVMZ6qDyd84yjdQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO3dO3vt9IE0MDl_jD7q9PYtJniiyWItO-KVDzlMj-X1nphghTBPCNCI1Ygygax1Ec31aZGxStMceC_KSwbufJVBd31PAAeE9XrI0JdITZ0aZ0lrQVMZ6qDyd84yjdQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO3dO3vt9IE0MDl_jD7q9PYtJniiyWItO-KVDzlMj-X1nphghTBPCNCI1Ygygax1Ec31aZGxStMceC_KSwbufJVBd31PAAeE9XrI0JdITZ0aZ0lrQVMZ6qDyd84yjdQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO3dO3vt9IE0MDl_jD7q9PYtJniiyWItO-KVDzlMj-X1nphghTBPCNCI1Ygygax1Ec31aZGxStMceC_KSwbufJVBd31PAAeE9XrI0JdITZ0aZ0lrQVMZ6qDyd84yjdQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO3dO3vt9IE0MDl_jD7q9PYtJniiyWItO-KVDzlMj-X1nphghTBPCNCI1Ygygax1Ec31aZGxStMceC_KSwbufJVBd31PAAeE9XrI0JdITZ0aZ0lrQVMZ6qDyd84yjdQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":422125,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422125","url_meta":{"origin":419411,"position":1},"title":"Where Are the Climate-Related Disasters?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"For decades, the climate crisis narrative has rested on a single, emotionally powerful claim: As the planet warms, extreme weather will become more frequent and more intense.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-354.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-354.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-354.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408403,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408403","url_meta":{"origin":419411,"position":2},"title":"False, Santa Fe New Mexican, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing Higher Insurance Rates or Dropped Coverage","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article posted at the\u00a0Santa Fe New Mexican\u00a0(SFNM), \u201cClimate change and the coming real estate calamity,\u201d claims that climate change is causing an increase in extreme and damaging weather, which then causes homes to be uninsurable. 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Wildfires caused by arson Atlantic Ocean\u2019s \u201cconveyor belt\u201d is NOT on the verge of collapse \u2013 Fossil fuels saving lives.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0November-2025-summary.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0November-2025-summary.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0November-2025-summary.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0November-2025-summary.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0November-2025-summary.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279931,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279931","url_meta":{"origin":419411,"position":4},"title":"Climate of Alarm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"22\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Many people take the connection between climate change and extreme weather events \u2014 wildfires, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. \u2014 for granted. 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