{"id":419344,"date":"2026-01-01T15:16:54","date_gmt":"2026-01-01T14:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419344"},"modified":"2026-01-01T15:16:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-01T14:16:57","slug":"hiding-the-pea-revisited-remove-the-scenario-keep-the-result","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419344","title":{"rendered":"Hiding the Pea, Revisited: Remove the Scenario, Keep the Result"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A recent\u00a0Nature Climate Change<\/em>\u00a0paper titled\u00a0\u201cPeak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century<\/a>\u201d<\/em>\u00a0presents itself as a careful, policy-relevant analysis of global glacier loss under a range of future warming levels. Rather than framing its projections around emissions pathways, the authors organize their results around four temperature outcomes by 2100: +1.5\u2009\u00b0C, +2.0\u2009\u00b0C, +2.7\u2009\u00b0C, and +4.0\u2009\u00b0C. This choice lends the paper a contemporary appearance, suggesting a move beyond the controversies that surrounded earlier scenario-based impact studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Screenshot
https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41558-025-02513-9<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It is important to state clearly at the outset: the paper does not explicitly claim to avoid or correct for RCP 8.5<\/strong>. It does not present itself as a methodological advance over earlier work on those grounds, nor does it acknowledge the debates surrounding the plausibility of that scenario. RCP 8.5 simply does not appear by name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That silence, however, is precisely what makes the paper instructive. While the scenario label has been removed, the high-end assumptions once associated with RCP 8.5 quietly re-enter the analysis under a different framework. The paper\u2019s most dramatic conclusions\u2014those concerning peak glacier extinction rates approaching 4,000 glaciers per year and near-complete loss by century\u2019s end\u2014are driven largely by a +4.0\u2009\u00b0C warming case constructed from SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 simulations. The result is familiar: the scenario is gone, but the signal remains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This approach will be instantly recognizable to anyone who followed the paleoclimate proxy reconstruction debates of the past two decades. Steve McIntyre, writing at ClimateAudit.org, documented a recurring procedural pattern<\/a>. When a particular proxy series was shown to be flawed\u2014often because it was inverted, truncated, obsolete, or otherwise methodologically indefensible\u2014it would be removed. The authors would then announce that the reconstruction was \u201crobust,\u201d because the overall result did not change. What was rarely emphasized was that another proxy, carrying essentially the same statistical signal, had been quietly introduced to take its place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pea had not been removed. It had been moved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The glacier paper follows this same structural logic, translated from proxy networks to scenario construction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RCP 8.5 has become politically and rhetorically inconvenient. Its assumptions about long-term coal use, population growth, and emissions intensity no longer track well with observed energy trends, and its continued use has attracted criticism even within mainstream climate research. Rather than engaging those criticisms directly, the paper sidesteps them. The RCP framework disappears. SSPs take its place. The analysis is reframed around temperature end-states, severing the connection between projected impacts and the socioeconomic assumptions required to produce them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The effect is subtle but consequential. By focusing on warming levels rather than pathways, the paper treats a +4.0\u2009\u00b0C world as a policy-relevant comparator rather than as an extreme conditional outcome. Nowhere does it ask whether such a trajectory remains consistent with observed electricity generation trends, fuel substitution rates, or historical declines in energy intensity. The scenario exists because the model ensemble allows it to exist, not because the real world is demonstrably moving in that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, a reminder is useful: the issue is not what the authors claim, but what the results depend on<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper\u2019s most emotionally potent comparisons\u2014such as equating peak extinction rates to \u201closing the entire glacier population of the European Alps in just one year\u201d\u2014derive their force almost entirely from the high-end warming case. Under +1.5\u2009\u00b0C, the projected peak loss rate is roughly half that value; under +2.7\u2009\u00b0C it is intermediate. The wide spread between these outcomes should invite skepticism about policy inference, yet the paper treats the upper bound as a meaningful guide to decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is especially striking given the authors\u2019 own admissions about metric fragility. Glacier \u201cextinction\u201d is defined not by physical disappearance in any hydrological sense, but by an area threshold of 0.01\u2009km\u00b2 or a volume drop below 1 percent of the initial value. The paper acknowledges that glacier number is highly sensitive to inventory resolution, classification choices, and the treatment of small ice bodies, and that it should be interpreted with more caution than mass or area. These caveats are technically correct\u2014and then largely set aside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a pivot from conditional modeling to normative language. The authors conclude that their results \u201cunderscore the urgency of ambitious climate policy\u201d and that the difference between losing 2,000 versus 4,000 glaciers per year by mid-century is \u201cdetermined by near-term policies and societal decisions taken today.\u201d This is not merely descriptive. It is prescriptive, and it rests squarely on the same high-end assumptions that have been relabeled rather than interrogated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This illustrates a methodological culture that treats contested assumptions as interchangeable components so long as the preferred outcome survives. The glacier models are internally consistent. The statistics are competently executed. But the stability of the headline result under substitution is treated as validation, when it should instead prompt the same question McIntyre asked repeatedly in a different context: robust with respect to what, exactly?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the proxy debates, robustness often meant that removing one criticized series changed nothing because another, functionally similar series had taken its place. In this case, robustness means that removing a discredited scenario label changes nothing because its high-end assumptions reappear under a new framework. The logic is the same. Only the objects have changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pea, once again, has not disappeared. It has simply been moved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as before, the audience is invited to admire the steadiness of the result rather than to examine how carefully the cups have been arranged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A recent\u00a0Nature Climate Change\u00a0paper titled\u00a0\u201cPeak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century\u201d\u00a0presents itself as a careful, policy-relevant analysis of global glacier loss under a range of future warming levels. Rather than framing its projections around emissions pathways, the authors organize their results around four temperature outcomes by 2100: +1.5\u2009\u00b0C, +2.0\u2009\u00b0C, +2.7\u2009\u00b0C, and +4.0\u2009\u00b0C. This choice lends the paper a contemporary appearance, suggesting a move beyond the controversies that surrounded earlier scenario-based impact studies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how a recent study reframes glacier extinction rates by focusing on warming outcomes instead of emissions pathways. Understand the implications!","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Unmasking Glacier Extinction: A New Scenario Analysis","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJ0eHQiOiJIaWRpbmcgdGhlIFBlYSwgUmV2aXNpdGVkOiBSZW1vdmUgdGhlIFNjZW5hcmlvLCBLZWVwIHRoZSBSZXN1bHQiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.Amax94ykYMCjoCR7CVDElETwDoOT6UXW3vIjhohkHM8MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840442,691840441,691818087,691832963,691840444,691840443],"class_list":["post-419344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-glacier-extinction","tag-global-glacier-models","tag-global-warming","tag-rcp-8-5-scenario","tag-science-fiction","tag-ssp5-8-5-and-ssp3-7-0-simulations","has-post-thumbnail","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1L5C","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":239197,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239197","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":0},"title":"Glacial Armageddon! 2\/3 to vanish by 2100!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Glaciers are always advancing or retreating\u2026 The may move at a glacial pace, but they do move. People living in a world with advancing glaciers are not likely to thrive as well as they would in a world of retreating glaciers.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-520.png?fit=618%2C815&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-520.png?fit=618%2C815&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-520.png?fit=618%2C815&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416833,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416833","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":1},"title":"Regional Cooling Since The 1980s Has Driven Glacier Advance in The Karakoram Mountains","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Per a\u00a0new study \u2018s reconstruction of summer temperatures over the last 170 years, this region has cooled dramatically (by nearly 1\u00b0C) since the 1980s. This \u201canomalous\u201d cooling trend has led to glacier stability and even advance over the last several decades.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cKarakoram anomaly\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cKarakoram anomaly\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=karakoram-anomaly"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP4SaUVEbEEPibmOWDBNGqsNfhD6V1obh2MsYA7iwIZJQ-60-L_6z4wZPWHTxsbJqQpc823sZWTgDJ94saT0HIowe2fJSCboFj5TdkYOANpfW-m-DZ18njgYdq2qeNP-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP4SaUVEbEEPibmOWDBNGqsNfhD6V1obh2MsYA7iwIZJQ-60-L_6z4wZPWHTxsbJqQpc823sZWTgDJ94saT0HIowe2fJSCboFj5TdkYOANpfW-m-DZ18njgYdq2qeNP-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP4SaUVEbEEPibmOWDBNGqsNfhD6V1obh2MsYA7iwIZJQ-60-L_6z4wZPWHTxsbJqQpc823sZWTgDJ94saT0HIowe2fJSCboFj5TdkYOANpfW-m-DZ18njgYdq2qeNP-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP4SaUVEbEEPibmOWDBNGqsNfhD6V1obh2MsYA7iwIZJQ-60-L_6z4wZPWHTxsbJqQpc823sZWTgDJ94saT0HIowe2fJSCboFj5TdkYOANpfW-m-DZ18njgYdq2qeNP-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP4SaUVEbEEPibmOWDBNGqsNfhD6V1obh2MsYA7iwIZJQ-60-L_6z4wZPWHTxsbJqQpc823sZWTgDJ94saT0HIowe2fJSCboFj5TdkYOANpfW-m-DZ18njgYdq2qeNP-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426251,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426251","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":2},"title":"Holocene Glacier Records","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Glacier length changes through time, they advance when the local climate around them is colder and retreat when it is warmer (Bray, 1968). Over century and greater time scales glacier length is considered a highly reliable indicator of both regional and worldwide warming trends according to Olga Solomina, Johannes Oerlemans,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/00Screenshot-2026-02-14-220345.png?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/00Screenshot-2026-02-14-220345.png?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/00Screenshot-2026-02-14-220345.png?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/00Screenshot-2026-02-14-220345.png?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/00Screenshot-2026-02-14-220345.png?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":197714,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=197714","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":3},"title":"The Evidence Keeps Piling Up: Iceland Is Not Cooperating with the \u2018Global Warming\u2019 Agenda \u2014","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"If decadal- and century-scale glacier advance and retreat is strongly indicative of a region\u2019s climate, glacier behavior in Iceland saps the narrative that says anthropogenic CO2 is a climate driver. Per a\u00a0new study, many of the northern Icelandic glaciers in existence today had \u201cdisappeared\u201d from about 10,000 to 6,000 years\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Iceland-glaciers-probably-disappeared-during-the-Holocene-Thermal-Maximum-advancing-in-the-1970s-to-1990s-Palacios-2022.jpg?fit=897%2C823&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Iceland-glaciers-probably-disappeared-during-the-Holocene-Thermal-Maximum-advancing-in-the-1970s-to-1990s-Palacios-2022.jpg?fit=897%2C823&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Iceland-glaciers-probably-disappeared-during-the-Holocene-Thermal-Maximum-advancing-in-the-1970s-to-1990s-Palacios-2022.jpg?fit=897%2C823&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0Iceland-glaciers-probably-disappeared-during-the-Holocene-Thermal-Maximum-advancing-in-the-1970s-to-1990s-Palacios-2022.jpg?fit=897%2C823&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":432757,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=432757","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":4},"title":"Wrong, Daily Mail, Antarctica\u2019s Thwaites Glacier Isn\u2019t on the Road to Collapse by 2067","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cAntarctica \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 COLLAPSE by 2067\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. This misleading framing gives a false impression of what science actually says about the issue. Observational data show ongoing ice loss and instability, but they do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":333199,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=333199","url_meta":{"origin":419344,"position":5},"title":"Redressing Antarctic Glacier\u00a0Porn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate alarmists are known to recycle memes to frighten the public into supporting their agenda. The climate news control desk calls the plays and the media fills the air and print with the scare du jour.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=419344"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":419350,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419344\/revisions\/419350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=419344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=419344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=419344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}