{"id":418738,"date":"2025-12-26T21:03:32","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T20:03:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418738"},"modified":"2025-12-26T21:03:34","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T20:03:34","slug":"meteorologist-dr-ryan-maue-warns-germany-wont-make-it-if-winter-turns-severe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418738","title":{"rendered":"Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue Warns \u201cGermany Won\u2019t Make It\u201d If Winter Turns Severe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Ryan Maue has warned that if the winter of 1962-1963 occurred with today’s European energy system, Germany would not be able to make it. The country is currently facing “exceptional energy shortfalls” and the weather models are indicating severe winter conditions across Europe for early January.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meteorologist\u00a0Dr. Ryan Maue warns at X<\/a>\u00a0that\u00a0if the winter of 1962-1963 happened again\u00a0with today\u2019s European energy system, then \u201cGermany\u00a0won\u2019t make it\u201d. The country has \u201cexceptional energy shortfalls.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A
Image genrated by Grok AI<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

And, suddenly, the weather models are hinting<\/a> at severe winter conditions across Europe for early January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maue\u2019s claim leans on a paper titled: \u201cOn the Link Between Weather Regimes and Energy Shortfall During Winter for 28 European Countries<\/a>,\u201d published in Meteorological Applications<\/em> (2025) by Emmanuel Rouges, Marlene Kretschmer, and Theodore G. Shepherd. The authors examine how specific atmospheric patterns affect the balance between energy demand and renewable energy production across Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study focuses on energy shortfall, defined as periods when electricity demand significantly exceeds renewable energy production (specifically wind and solar). It analyzes 28 European countries using a \u201cfixed electricity system\u201d model (based on current infrastructure) and historical weather data (reanalysis) to see how past weather would affect today\u2019s grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The researchers found that the primary driver of shortfall varies by region. In cold-climate, low-windd capacity countries, a shortfall is primarily demand-driven (e.g., increased heating needs during cold snaps).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In warm climate, high wind capacity countries, a shortfall is primarily production-driven (e.g., periods of low wind speed or \u201cDunkelflaute\u201d).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study categorized winter weather into six specific \u201cregimes.\u201d Only a subset of these\u2014primarily those involving atmospheric blocking (which brings cold, still air)\u2014are responsible for the majority of high-shortfall days. These critical weather regimes often affect large portions of the continent simultaneously, meaning many European countries experience energy stress at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a high level of spatial correlation in energy shortfalls. If one country is experiencing a shortfall, its neighbors are highly likely to be in the same situation. This highlights a potential challenge for \u201csharing\u201d energy across borders during extreme weather events, as many potential exporters might also be facing deficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors simulated what would happen if the 1962\/1963 winter (the coldest of the 20th century in Europe) occurred with today\u2019s energy system. They concluded that the persistent blocking conditions of that winter would lead to extreme and prolonged energy shortfalls across almost all of Europe, far exceeding the stress seen in more recent decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper emphasizes that as Europe transitions to renewable energy, understanding the meteorological drivers of shortfall is critical. It suggests that energy planners must account for the fact that extreme weather events can cause simultaneous, continent-wide energy crises that current interconnected grids may struggle to mitigate through simple cross-border trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Ryan Maue has warned that if the winter of 1962-1963 occurred with today’s European energy system, Germany would not be able to make it. The country is currently facing “exceptional energy shortfalls” and the weather models are indicating severe winter conditions across Europe for early January. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":418747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Dr. Ryan Maue warns of severe winter impacts on Germany's energy system, highlighting risks of energy shortfalls amid harsh conditions.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Germany Faces Severe Winter Energy Crisis: Expert Warning","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMlwvMEFRTTd4OHdtMEJjWnZZOXdNRXMxTVlpQVBvZ3dlY1AwcGFVNE83Q04zblFOWUpUOFVwSkRQMk81NmM0ZUMyR0VjbzlZc3VFV2dCZUhTMGR6a2xoMlptWTNQXy1QaDJ1d2xVdzJ6M21yZ3VDOS1JWHBXWGhwYTFTeDI5bmFzQS0xLTEwMjR4NTcyLmpwZWciLCJ0eHQiOiJNZXRlb3JvbG9naXN0IERyLiBSeWFuIE1hdWUgV2FybnMgXHUyMDFjR2VybWFueSBXb25cdTIwMTl0IE1ha2UgSXRcdTIwMWQgSWYgV2ludGVyIFR1cm5zIFNldmVyZSIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.ETVE45dhOMGcz7RrgEXwDwXZkmKvI57E3KllRgSHV-4MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840346,691840345,691840344,691822868,691818051,691819094,691840343],"class_list":["post-418738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-sharing-energy","tag-energy-shortfall","tag-european-energy-system","tag-extreme-weather-events","tag-germany","tag-renewable-green-energy","tag-winter-of-1962-1963","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQM7x8wm0BcZvY9wMEs1MYiAPogwecP0paU4O7CN3nQNYJT8UpJDP2O56c4eC2GEco9YsuEWgBeHS0dzklh2ZmY3P_-Ph2uwlUw2z3mrguC9-IXpWXhpa1Sx29nasA-1.jpeg?fit=1641%2C917&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KVQ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":419034,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419034","url_meta":{"origin":418738,"position":0},"title":"Winter weather and electricity in Europe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Hardly any reader will remember the winter of 1962\/63. 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