{"id":418358,"date":"2025-12-23T12:27:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T11:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418358"},"modified":"2025-12-23T12:27:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T11:27:24","slug":"the-climate-risk-industrial-complex-and-the-manufactured-insurance-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418358","title":{"rendered":"The Climate-Risk Industrial Complex and the Manufactured Insurance Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"530\" data-attachment-id=\"418378\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418378\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?fit=1356%2C994&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1356,994\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?fit=723%2C530&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=723%2C530&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Aerial view of a flooded area with submerged roads and signs, surrounded by trees under overcast skies.\" class=\"wp-image-418378\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=1024%2C751&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=300%2C220&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=768%2C563&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=640%2C469&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?resize=1200%2C880&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?w=1356&amp;ssl=1 1356w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-invention-of-climate-risk-politically\"><\/a>From <a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-climate-risk-industrial-complex\">The Honest Broker<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@rogerpielkejr\">Roger Pielke Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"720\" data-attachment-id=\"418362\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418362\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?fit=720%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,720\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?fit=720%2C720&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=720%2C720&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A surreal machine labeled 'CLIMATE RISK' featuring gears, pipes, and a pressure gauge, with cash flowing out of a spout.\" class=\"wp-image-418362\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=640%2C640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-379.png?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A new THB series &#8211; Part 1, Origins of a &#8220;Crisis&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve all seen the headlines \u2014 such as the below \u2014 loudly proclaiming that due to climate change the insurance industry is in crisis, and even that\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.epw.senate.gov\/public\/index.cfm\/2025\/1\/whitehouse-statement-on-new-treasury-report-confirming-climate-change-driven-insurance-affordability-availability-crisis\">total economic collapse may soon follow<\/a>. For instance, since 2019, the\u00a0<em>New York Times,\u00a0<\/em>one of the primary champions of this narrative, has published more than 1,250 articles on climate change and insurance.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"636\" height=\"263\" data-attachment-id=\"418365\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418365\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-381.png?fit=636%2C263&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"636,263\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-381.png?fit=636%2C263&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-381.png?resize=636%2C263&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A New York Times article headline discussing the intersection of climate change and the insurance industry, emphasizing the impact on home insurers and economic stability.\" class=\"wp-image-418365\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-381.png?w=636&amp;ssl=1 636w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-381.png?resize=300%2C124&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 636px) 100vw, 636px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Climate advocates have embraced the idea of a climate-fueled insurance crisis as it neatly ties together the hyping of extreme weather and alleged financial consequences for ordinary people. The oft-cited remedy to the claimed crisis is, of course, to be found in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/yalelawjournal.org\/essay\/the-uninsurable-future-the-climate-threat-to-property-insurance-and-how-to-stop-it\">energy policy<\/a>: \u201cThe only long-term solution to preserve an insurable future is to transition from fossil fuels and other greenhouse-gas-emitting industries.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, it is not just climate advocates promoting the notion that climate change is fundamentally threatening the insurance industry. A climate-risk industrial complex has emerged in this space and a lot of money is being made by a lot of people. The virtuous veneer of climate advocacy serves to discourage scrutiny and accountability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this series, I take a deep dive into the \u201ccrisis,\u201d its origins, its politics, and its tenuous relationship with actual climate science.<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-climate-risk-industrial-complex#footnote-1-180981808\">1<\/a>&nbsp;Today, I kick things off by sharing three fundamental, and perhaps surprising, facts that go a long way to explaining why insurance prices have increased and who benefits:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Property\/casualty insurance is raking in record profits;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Insurance underwriting returns vary year-to-year but show no trend;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u201cClimate\u201d risk assessments are unreliable and a cause of higher insurance prices.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Grab a cup of coffee, settle in, and let\u2019s go . . .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Property\/casualty insurance is raking in record profits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year is shaping up to be an extremely profitable year for the property\/casualty (P\/C) insurance industry. In a report covering the first six months of 2025, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/content.naic.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-mid-year-property-casualty-and-title-insurance-industries-analysis-report.pdf\">National Association of Insurance Commissioners<\/a>&nbsp;(NAIC) shares the good news (emphasis added):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite heavy catastrophe losses, including the costliest wildfires on record, the U.S. Property &amp; Casualty (P&amp;C) industry recorded its<strong>&nbsp;best mid-year underwriting gain in nearly 20 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the second half of 2025, returns got even better for the P\/C industry. According to a new report from S&amp;P Market Intelligence, as reported by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carriermanagement.com\/news\/2025\/11\/25\/281805.htm\">Carrier Management<\/a>&nbsp;(emphases added):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For U.S. P\/C insurers, it just doesn\u2019t get any better than this<\/strong>. . . With a combined ratio of 89.1 for third-quarter 2025, t<strong>he U.S. property\/casualty insurance industry had its best quarter in at least a quarter of a century\u2014and maybe longer<\/strong>, S&amp;P Market Intelligence said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taking a longer view, the extremely profitable 2025 follows significant industry profitability in 2023 and 2024, according to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/content.naic.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-annual-property-casualty-and-title-insurance-industries-analysis-report.pdf\">National Association of Insurance Commissioners<\/a>&nbsp;(NAIC), as shown in the figure below.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"482\" height=\"385\" data-attachment-id=\"418368\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418368\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-383.png?fit=482%2C385&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"482,385\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-383.png?fit=482%2C385&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-383.png?resize=482%2C385&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A bar chart illustrating profitability in the property\/casualty insurance industry from 2015 to 2024, with net income shown in blue bars and return on revenue (ROR) in a red line, indicating a significant increase in profitability in 2023 and 2024.\" class=\"wp-image-418368\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-383.png?w=482&amp;ssl=1 482w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-383.png?resize=300%2C240&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 482px) 100vw, 482px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What accounts for the high profits?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/content.naic.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-annual-property-casualty-and-title-insurance-industries-analysis-report.pdf\">NAIC<\/a>&nbsp;explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strong premium growth, driven largely by rate increases, coupled with abating economic inflation . . . Net income nearly doubled compared to last year, attributed to the underwriting profit and healthy investment returns.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below, I\u2019ll pick up the issue of rate increases and explore one big reason why they have occurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there is a P\/C insurance crisis, it may be in figuring out how to explain its impressive returns at the same time that the climate lobby is telling everyone that the industry is collapsing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Insurance underwriting returns vary year-to-year but show no trend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The P\/C industry makes money primarily in two ways \u2014 underwriting of insurance policies and investment income. Typically, insurance companies seek to break even, or lose little, on insurance underwriting and earn profits on investment income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warren Buffet, in his 2009&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/2009ltr.pdf\">letter<\/a>&nbsp;to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, explained concisely how the P\/C industry works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our property-casualty (P\/C) insurance business has been the engine behind Berkshire\u2019s growth and will continue to be. It has worked wonders for us. We carry our P\/C companies on our books at $15.5 billion more than their net tangible assets, an amount lodged in our \u201cGoodwill\u201d account. These companies, however, are worth far more than their carrying value\u2013 and the following look at the economic model of the P\/C industry will tell you why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Insurers receive premiums upfront and pay claims later. In extreme cases, such as those arising from certain workers\u2019 compensation accidents, payments can stretch over decades. This collect-now, pay-later model leaves us holding large sums\u2013 money we call \u201cfloat\u201d\u2013 that will eventually go to others. Meanwhile, we get to invest this float for Berkshire\u2019s benefit. Though individual policies and claims come and go, the amount of float we hold remains remarkably stable in relation to premium volume. Consequently, as our business grows, so does our float.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If premiums exceed the total of expenses and eventual losses, we register an underwriting profit that adds to the investment income produced from the float. This combination allows us to enjoy the use of free money\u2013 and, better yet, get paid for holding it. Alas, the hope of this happy result attracts intense competition, so vigorous in most years as to cause the P\/C industry as a whole to operate at a significant underwriting loss. This loss, in effect, is what the industry pays to hold its float. Usually this cost is fairly low, but in some catastrophe-ridden years the cost from underwriting losses more than eats up the income derived from use of float.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure below, using data from the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iii.org\/table-archive\/21113\">Insurance Information Institute<\/a>, shows the underwriting performance of the P\/C industry from 2004 to 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"442\" data-attachment-id=\"418369\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418369\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?fit=1988%2C1215&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1988,1215\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?fit=723%2C442&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=723%2C442&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bar graph depicting the net gain\/loss of property casualty underwriting from 2004 to 2024, with dollar amounts in billions and a fluctuating trend over the years.\" class=\"wp-image-418369\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=1024%2C626&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=300%2C183&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=768%2C469&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=1536%2C939&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=640%2C391&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?resize=1200%2C733&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?w=1988&amp;ssl=1 1988w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-384.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iii.org\/table-archive\/21113\">III<\/a>, adjusted to 2025 dollars via\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.minneapolisfed.org\/about-us\/monetary-policy\/inflation-calculator\/consumer-price-index-1913-\">CPI<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The time series shows lots of ups and downs, but no trend \u2014 by design, as Buffet explained. There are certainly no signs of an underwriting crisis, much less indications of a coming collapse. The P\/C industry looks both well-managed and healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cClimate\u201d risk assessments are unreliable and a cause of higher insurance prices<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"251\" data-attachment-id=\"418372\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418372\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?fit=740%2C257&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"740,257\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?fit=723%2C251&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?resize=723%2C251&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A line graph depicting the average commercial premium pricing from 2004 to 2024, showing fluctuations with a notable increase in recent years.\" class=\"wp-image-418372\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?w=740&amp;ssl=1 740w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?resize=300%2C104&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-386.png?resize=640%2C222&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/content.naic.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2024-annual-property-casualty-and-title-insurance-industries-analysis-report.pdf\">NAIC<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If profits are high and underwriting is steady, then what then accounts for increasing insurance prices \u2014 which, as of the end of 2024, increased 29 consecutive quarters in a row (above)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A big part of the answer is&nbsp;<em><strong>Climate Change<\/strong><\/em>. But not how you might think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A decade ago, Mark Carney \u2014 then Governor of the Bank of England and today Prime Minister of Canada \u2014 gave an influential speech titled,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/speech\/2015\/breaking-the-tragedy-of-the-horizon-climate-change-and-financial-stability\">Breaking the Tragedy of the Horizon \u2013 climate change and financial stability<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Carney argued that the insurance industry was at risk due to changes in the climatology of extreme events that were not properly understood by experts in the industry:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[T]here are some estimates that currently modelled losses could be undervalued by as much as 50% if recent weather trends were to prove representative of the new normal. . . Such developments have the potential to shift the balance between premiums and claims significantly, and render currently lucrative business non-viable.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coincident with Carney\u2019s 2015 speech, the Bank of England released a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/prudential-regulation\/publication\/2015\/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-the-uk-insurance-sector\">report on the impacts of climate change on the insurance industry<\/a>, and noted that conventional catastrophe modeling did not effectively consider a changing climate. The Bank of England kicked off a longstanding campaign to convince people that extreme weather events were changing dramatically in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Subsequently, in 2019, the Bank of England&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/prudential-regulation\/publication\/2025\/april\/enhancing-banks-and-insurers-approaches-to-managing-climate-related-risks-consultation-paper\">required firms<\/a>&nbsp;to assess their \u201cclimate risks.\u201d This guidance was updated&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankofengland.co.uk\/prudential-regulation\/publication\/2025\/december\/enhancing-banks-and-insurers-approaches-to-managing-climate-related-risks-policy-statement\">last week<\/a>. In (a coordinated) parallel effort, national and international organizations focused on \u201cclimate risk\u201d to the financial sector started multiplying \u2014 such as the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fca.org.uk\/cfrf\">Climate Financial Risk Forum<\/a>&nbsp;and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ngfs.net\/en\">Network for Greening the Financial System<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The climate-risk industry was born circa 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is an incredible story to be told here (and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/jessicaweinkle.substack.com\/\">Jessica Weinkle<\/a>&nbsp;is the go-to expert), but for today, the key takeaways are that (a) the notion of \u201cclimate risk\u201d to finance, including insurance, led to the creation of a \u201cclimate risk\u201d industry, and (b) within this industry, a new family of risk assessment vendors emerged, promising to satisfy the new demands for climate risk disclosure and risk modeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fca.org.uk\/publication\/corporate\/risk-professionals-guide-physical-risk-assessments-garp-benchmarking-study-13-vendors.pdf\">Global Association of Risk Professionals<\/a>&nbsp;(GARP) explains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As this [\u201cclimate risk\u201d] was a new discipline for most financial firms, many turned to third party providers (\u201cvendors\u201d) to help them with different areas of expertise. There are now many physical risk data vendors, which offer a variety of services to financial institutions. While vendor offerings often sound alike \u2014 providing projections of how physical risk could evolve for locations across a range of risks and climate scenarios \u2014 they can differ significantly in terms of features, approach, or suitability for specific needs, and the underlying models that these providers use differ in methodology and assumptions.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GARP just published an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fca.org.uk\/publication\/corporate\/risk-professionals-guide-physical-risk-assessments-garp-benchmarking-study-13-vendors.pdf\">incredibly important study<\/a>&nbsp;that assessed how 13 different \u201cclimate risk\u201d vendors modeled physical risk and risk of loss across 100 individual structures around the world.<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-climate-risk-industrial-complex#footnote-2-180981808\">2<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The results are shocking \u2014 given how they are used in industry but should not be surprising \u2014 given what we know about modeling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is absolutely no consensus across vendors about \u201cclimate risk\u201d in terms of either physical risks or risks of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure below shows, for 100 different properties around the world, the differences in modeled 200-year flood risk across the 13 vendors, as reflected in modeled flood heights. The maximum difference among the properties across vendors is about 12 meters and the median difference is about 2.7 meters \u2014 These are huge differences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"268\" data-attachment-id=\"418374\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418374\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?fit=3690%2C1365&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"3690,1365\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?fit=723%2C268&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=723%2C268&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bar graph showing the modeled 200-year flood height difference across 13 climate risk vendors for 100 properties, measuring the maximum height difference between vendors in meters.\" class=\"wp-image-418374\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=1024%2C379&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=300%2C111&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=768%2C284&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=1536%2C568&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=2048%2C758&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=640%2C237&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?resize=1200%2C444&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-387.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fca.org.uk\/publication\/corporate\/risk-professionals-guide-physical-risk-assessments-garp-benchmarking-study-13-vendors.pdf\">GARP 2025<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of risk of loss, the models have an even greater spread. The figure below shows that for a modeled 200-year flood, 10 properties are modeled by at least one vendor to have total losses (100%) while another vendor models the same properties to have no losses, under the exact same event. The median difference between minimum and maximum modeled loss ratio is 30% \u2014 Another huge number.<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-climate-risk-industrial-complex#footnote-3-180981808\">3<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"289\" data-attachment-id=\"418375\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418375\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?fit=3412%2C1367&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"3412,1367\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?fit=723%2C289&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=723%2C289&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bar graph illustrating the 200-year floor loss ratio difference among 13 climate risk vendors for 100 properties, showing significant variations in percentage loss.\" class=\"wp-image-418375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=1024%2C410&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=300%2C120&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=768%2C308&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=1536%2C615&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=2048%2C821&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=640%2C256&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?resize=1200%2C481&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-388.png?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.fca.org.uk\/publication\/corporate\/risk-professionals-guide-physical-risk-assessments-garp-benchmarking-study-13-vendors.pdf\">GARP 2025<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Insurance pricing does not scale linearly with increasing modeled loss ratios. Consider that the difference between a modeled 10% loss ratio and a 40% loss ratio (i.e., the 30% median difference across vendors from above) might result in a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1057\/s10713-020-00051-2.pdf\">10x increase<\/a>&nbsp;in insurance rates. Risk adverse insurers have&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1057\/s10713-020-00051-2\">incentives to price at the most extreme modeled loss<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Model inaccuracies, uncertainties, spread, and ambiguity are features not flaws when it comes to making money. \u201cClimate risk\u201d modeling has resulted in a financial windfall not just for the newly created climate analytics industry, but also for insurers and reinsurers who have seen the envelope of modeled losses expand. The need for new models, of questionable fidelity, are necessary to satisfy industry guidance and government regulators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The net result has been a seemingly scientific justification for increasing insurance rates.<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/the-climate-risk-industrial-complex#footnote-4-180981808\">4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are of course real changes in physical risk, exposure, and vulnerability as well as the regulatory and political contexts within which the P\/C industry must operate. The discipline of catastrophe modeling has long integrated these factors to assess risks. As insurance policies and reinsurance contracts are typically implemented on a one-year basis, and thus well-positioned to incorporate changing perceptions of risk, this series will explore why a new \u201cclimate risk\u201d assessment industry was even needed in the first place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What about that \u201cclimate risk\u201d? THB readers will be very familiar with the science of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/class-is-in\">extreme events and climate change<\/a>, which, as reported here, happens to be consistent with both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and those in the legacy catastrophe modeling community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of those modeling firms,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.verisk.com\/4a4fa4\/siteassets\/extreme-event-solutions\/modeling-insured-catastrophe-loss-a-global-perspective-for-2025.pdf\">Verisk<\/a>, gets the last word for today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We estimate about 1% of year-on-year increases in AAL [Average Annual Loss] are attributable to climate change. Such small shifts can easily get lost behind other sources of systematic loss increase discussed in this report, such as inflation and exposure growth. The random volatility from internal climate variability also dwarfs the small positive climate change signal.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Climate advocates have embraced the idea of a climate-fueled insurance crisis as it neatly ties together the hyping of extreme weather and alleged financial consequences for ordinary people. The oft-cited remedy to the claimed crisis is, of course, to be found in\u00a0energy policy: \u201cThe only long-term solution to preserve an insurable future is to transition from fossil fuels and other greenhouse-gas-emitting industries.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":418378,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how the climate risk narrative influences insurance prices and profits, revealing the complexities behind the alleged insurance crisis.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding the Insurance Crisis Linked to Climate Change","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMlwvQVFPamVPZU0xaklBSGhZOWdhTUpsOElIUDB3aS13VFljY251WDZSN0FsX25NOF95Vk9ZTUdGOUt6NUtwV0dNTUx4OVVtTkc3dFdmRW8wdHBjcEhweGFsVmlJbzdPQzZFUTM1QTFydmNjVW5qbXp0N0tmaWFpc1RLeFljZTdGb3YtMTAyNHg3NTEuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IlRoZSBDbGltYXRlLVJpc2sgSW5kdXN0cmlhbCBDb21wbGV4IGFuZCB0aGUgTWFudWZhY3R1cmVkIEluc3VyYW5jZSBDcmlzaXMiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.o9Q5uicXtyLXx0y4tJjGB0v8lXdw1AHGl4XV7eRgihoMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840293,691818153,691840292,691818514,691840295,691840294,691833987,691840291],"class_list":["post-418358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-risk-assessments","tag-climate-models","tag-climate-risk-industrial-complex","tag-extreme-weather","tag-global-association-of-risk-professionals-garp","tag-insurance-prices","tag-modeling","tag-national-association-of-insurance-commissioners-naic","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQOjeOeM1jIAHhY9gaMJl8IHP0wi-wTYccnuX6R7Al_nM8_yVOYMGF9Kz5KpWGMMLx9UmNG7tWfEo0tpcpHpxalViIo7OC6EQ35A1rvccUnjmzt7KfiaisTKxYce7Fov.jpeg?fit=1356%2C994&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KPI","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":249015,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249015","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":0},"title":"Senate Budget Committee Hearing Today","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/22\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Insurance markets are influenced by our perceptions of climate risk. Referring to climate change as a \u201ccrisis\u201d is at odds with professional judgments of climate risk.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-896.png?fit=1200%2C693&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-896.png?fit=1200%2C693&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-896.png?fit=1200%2C693&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-896.png?fit=1200%2C693&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-896.png?fit=1200%2C693&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":374100,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374100","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":1},"title":"Claim: The Climate Crisis is On Track to Destroy Capitalism","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c\u2026 Action urgently needed to save the conditions under which markets \u2013 and civilisation itself \u2013 can operate \u2026\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Allianz Insurance\"","block_context":{"text":"Allianz Insurance","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=allianz-insurance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0NEWS_170219850_AR_0_TBVBUPLKQZBY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0NEWS_170219850_AR_0_TBVBUPLKQZBY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0NEWS_170219850_AR_0_TBVBUPLKQZBY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0NEWS_170219850_AR_0_TBVBUPLKQZBY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0NEWS_170219850_AR_0_TBVBUPLKQZBY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":373741,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373741","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":2},"title":"Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top\u00a0insurer","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Beware insurers wanting to increase premiums! The Guardian\u2019s Damian Carrington has fallen for the old trick!","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate crisis\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate crisis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-crisis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-362-1024x591-1.webp?fit=1023%2C591&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-362-1024x591-1.webp?fit=1023%2C591&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-362-1024x591-1.webp?fit=1023%2C591&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/image-362-1024x591-1.webp?fit=1023%2C591&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":435715,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435715","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":3},"title":"Wrong, Chicago Sun Times, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing High Insurance Cost in Illinois","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/30\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article at the Chicago Sun Times (CST) claims that \u201cClimate change is fueling a surge in Illinois home insurance premiums,\u201d via increases in severe weather. This is false. Severe weather is not getting worse in Illinois, so it cannot be the driver for insurance costs. Other factors, like\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Chicago Sun Times (CST)\"","block_context":{"text":"Chicago Sun Times (CST)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=chicago-sun-times-cst"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/012019-chicago-1791002.jpg?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/012019-chicago-1791002.jpg?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/012019-chicago-1791002.jpg?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/012019-chicago-1791002.jpg?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/012019-chicago-1791002.jpg?fit=1200%2C738&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":403002,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403002","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":4},"title":"Realtor.com and Yahoo News Are Wrong: Insurance Is Not Rising Due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Yahoo News reposted an article from Realtor.Com titled \u201cWould You Drop Insurance To Stay Put in Your Neighborhood? Most Owners Say Yes,\u201d claims that increasing \u201cclimate risk\u201d is forcing people to go without insurance and insurers to pull out of high risk areas. This is only partially true, insurers are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cclimate risk\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cclimate risk\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-risk-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN_ZHrEdKxIKWOnZDeymjtnxvyY4TY14qwVGjqDY_7q5qiXe5mFfntXsH0xDgUd-ByB391eCNxE_xbEzRSYCYHMN7tUT90fAEfPFi_ttPTzeGGDCadd8xLSVlw4ht0i-254-4Q-N8hA-R0Tshw83HKz-mk9w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN_ZHrEdKxIKWOnZDeymjtnxvyY4TY14qwVGjqDY_7q5qiXe5mFfntXsH0xDgUd-ByB391eCNxE_xbEzRSYCYHMN7tUT90fAEfPFi_ttPTzeGGDCadd8xLSVlw4ht0i-254-4Q-N8hA-R0Tshw83HKz-mk9w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN_ZHrEdKxIKWOnZDeymjtnxvyY4TY14qwVGjqDY_7q5qiXe5mFfntXsH0xDgUd-ByB391eCNxE_xbEzRSYCYHMN7tUT90fAEfPFi_ttPTzeGGDCadd8xLSVlw4ht0i-254-4Q-N8hA-R0Tshw83HKz-mk9w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN_ZHrEdKxIKWOnZDeymjtnxvyY4TY14qwVGjqDY_7q5qiXe5mFfntXsH0xDgUd-ByB391eCNxE_xbEzRSYCYHMN7tUT90fAEfPFi_ttPTzeGGDCadd8xLSVlw4ht0i-254-4Q-N8hA-R0Tshw83HKz-mk9w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN_ZHrEdKxIKWOnZDeymjtnxvyY4TY14qwVGjqDY_7q5qiXe5mFfntXsH0xDgUd-ByB391eCNxE_xbEzRSYCYHMN7tUT90fAEfPFi_ttPTzeGGDCadd8xLSVlw4ht0i-254-4Q-N8hA-R0Tshw83HKz-mk9w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":379415,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379415","url_meta":{"origin":418358,"position":5},"title":"CNN\u2019s Climate Con: How Real Estate, Not Storms, Drives Insurance Costs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a recent article, titled \u201cWhy climate risk could affect your credit score for buying a home,\u201d CNN\u2019s Andrew Freedman describes a new report by FirstStreet that claims to show how \u201cclimate risk\u201d could impact credit scores and mortgage lending due to an alleged increase in the frequency and severity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Freedman\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Freedman","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-freedman"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d-2.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418358","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=418358"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418358\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":418379,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418358\/revisions\/418379"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/418378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=418358"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=418358"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=418358"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}