{"id":418046,"date":"2025-12-21T13:53:20","date_gmt":"2025-12-21T12:53:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418046"},"modified":"2025-12-23T14:08:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T13:08:59","slug":"noaa-deploys-new-generation-of-ai-driven-global-weather-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418046","title":{"rendered":"NOAA deploys new generation of AI-driven global weather models\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"418051\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418051\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A top-down view of Earth, showcasing rippling water waves in blue and red, suggesting a dynamic environmental phenomenon. 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The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cNOAA\u2019s strategic application of AI is a significant leap forward in American weather model innovation,\u201d said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., NOAA administrator. \u201cThese AI models reflect a new paradigm for NOAA in providing improved accuracy for large-scale weather and tropical tracks, and faster delivery of forecast products to meteorologists and the public at a lower cost through drastically reduced computational expenses.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new suite of AI weather models includes three distinct applications:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZFZQ4JJKFB6zjCUZcLPwZA4vFJB0ohYqraWiTqYsWsUp5Pl-2FQiCCgv-2FQEkurTJSq11tCk4eBR2e4vQ9zxIyITZk-3Dcg0Q_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3NN0e4ESLMegM6c9BtqBcNYc6O-2FfGo3R-2FGpCBiUH5GRQHqB1uhdmJ94VfCowB1Q92-2F117AsBpnU89D6pMzuNT4lpOF7L-2FvM5mlUuu-2BhYBbeR-2FYSSbIBZ62N8NtPkI2JiLIlT91WRAVdPMzxYiKQKcVItH9BTwbOye366UrKldJJIXIg4rtJGi-2BIwQEYTMmxBGw-3D-3D\"><strong>AIGFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Forecast System)<\/strong><\/a><strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0A weather forecast model that implements AI to deliver improved weather forecasts more quickly and efficiently (using up to 99.7% less computing resources) than its traditional counterpart.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZFZQ4JJKFB6zjCUZcLPwZA4vFJB0ohYqraWiTqYsWsUpNQnj8agEUmvZn1Dlb5Se7WeLNhu3ZC7Er77aetD-2BYFE-3D016v_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3NpkQOUP7YDR801afZeCJgCJqi4BImFbohsTdDs5-2BkGmyrDsKhoViDqAzlCHOjm4yMkmLA-2B42l-2Fp5IAt-2FPsuSsP3aEnRoo1uC-2B0oI2V6I2MsKUVzVzT1LnaAx1iN-2FE4DF3sZffZnAai03PpRVP-2F0cxURTnlijCTbFM-2FGj6IaxJJIR7AmI8QTuGZ0wPBffciUrw-3D-3D\"><strong>AIGEFS (Artificial Intelligence Global Ensemble Forecast System)<\/strong><\/a><strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0An AI-based ensemble system that provides a range of probable forecast outcomes to meteorologists and decision-makers. Early results show improved performance over the traditional GEFS, extending forecast skill by an additional 18 to 24 hours.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZFZQ4JJKFB6zjCUZcLPwZA4vFJB0ohYqraWiTqYsWsUpXRnFYgpwPEf106XHvPVpjr-2Bhb2LPkMEpNhMAWd53kYI-3Dnae__oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3KJuIxeUMZrFV6HneatpMr1aMkd46iAeuXFPnx0lyVx4uaf8dgldiRoOssjc2MegcqUWzcE7O86LR1pr-2B0YRf1NyP6betzRBgHhosdiAvZKYTqtPGfsJILQ4-2FffSKomoZCH1ApmdoSU-2Fo4forHYhNlUzJeOTp78Yn4nKzsLAW89NYHBfUWsCj-2BUoyQH4y5UINw-3D-3D\"><strong>HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS)<\/strong><\/a><strong>:<\/strong>\u00a0A pioneering, hybrid \u201cgrand ensemble\u201d that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA\u2019s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"635\" data-attachment-id=\"418048\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=418048\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?fit=720%2C635&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,635\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?fit=720%2C635&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?resize=720%2C635&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A color-coded weather forecast map showing predicted precipitation levels in millimeters over the Pacific Northwest region of the United States for December 10, 2025, generated by the AIGFS model.\" class=\"wp-image-418048\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?resize=300%2C265&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-318.png?resize=640%2C564&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>AIGFS Forecast map from Dec 10 showing the heavy precipitation from an Atmospheric River hitting the Pacific Northwest. AI Models will protect life and property by improving forecast accuracy and timeliness for events such as the catastrophic flooding that impacted the Northwest. (Credit: NOAA)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>More about the new AI operational models<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AIGFS&nbsp;<\/strong>\u2014 a new AI-based system that uses a variety of data sources to generate weather forecasts comparable to those produced by traditional weather prediction systems, such as GFS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Performance: shows improved forecast skill over the traditional GFS for many large-scale features. Notably, it demonstrates a significant reduction in tropical cyclone track errors at longer lead times.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Efficiency: AIGFS\u2019s most transformative feature. A single 16-day forecast uses only 0.3% of the computing resources of the operational GFS and finishes in approximately 40 minutes. This reduced latency means forecasters get critical data more quickly than they do from the traditional GFS.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Area for future improvement: Though track forecasts are better, v1.0 shows a degradation in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts, which future versions will address.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AIGEFS&nbsp;<\/strong>\u2014 an AI-based 31-member ensemble, similar to the GEFS, that provides a range of possibilities for weather forecasters and decision-makers rather than a single forecast model solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Performance: forecast skill is comparable to the operational GEFS.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Efficiency: requires only 9% of the computing resources of the operational GEFS.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Area for future improvement: developers continue to improve the ensemble\u2019s ability to create a range of forecast outcomes.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>HGEFS&nbsp;<\/strong>\u2014 the most innovative application in the new suite. The HGEFS is a 62-member \u201cgrand ensemble\u201d created by combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with the 31 members of the AI-based AIGEFS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Performance: by combining two different modeling systems (one physics-based, one AI-based), the HGEFS creates a larger, more robust ensemble that more effectively represents forecast uncertainty. As a result, the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the GEFS and the AIGEFS across most major verification metrics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A NOAA first: to our knowledge, NOAA is the first organization in the world to implement such a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Area for future improvement: NOAA continues its work to improve HGEFS\u2019s hurricane intensity forecasts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A NOAA and industry-wide effort<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This initial model suite is an outgrowth of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZOA-2BEs84dcWLc-2F9CG8AIgn-2BhgZX2T13J-2Fv8VCSAJ6j-2Fkes9rlIeWKn0AmG8MqaLbng-3D-3DMtbh_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3LLCVzLdkWNio1Goq-2FJ9pagvUtNtRAHVZ9v95vdElC749tLqEOQ-2B9K2bi0Q8QIERXVudGy4Hbs4cy901GuJkBst9WgrV6jWA7-2BVz1jWWyPw5Sq2HXtlGFrnAVvxzjmO6FBIG61EIZYPQ7TksdM-2FESQplC53H-2BfrMGz1JrFxRFInmGxYuvfLbiYSNsiqCqYQf1w-3D-3D\"><strong>Project EAGLE<\/strong><\/a>, a joint initiative between NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research labs, the Environmental Modeling Center in NOAA\u2019s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cUsing Project EAGLE and the Earth Prediction Innovation Center, NOAA scientists continue to work with members of academia and private industry on more advancements in forecasting technology,\u201d added Jacobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The team leveraged Google DeepMind\u2019s GraphCast model as an initial foundation and fine-tuned the model using NOAA\u2019s own Global Data Assimilation System analyses. This additional training with NOAA data improved the Google model\u2019s performance, particularly when using GFS-based initial conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/icm-production-mpress-images.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com\/icm-production-mpress-images\/2014\/8\/11\/1509951407752332496.png?w=1110&amp;quality=75&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Climate, weather, and water affect all life on our ocean planet. NOAA\u2019s mission is to understand and predict our changing environment, from the deep sea to outer space, and to manage and conserve America\u2019s coastal and marine resources. See how NOAA science, services, and stewardship benefit your community: Visit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZNBg-2BNFYcMlbG565cZUYW9I-3DeODd_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3HZZP7wfEsPfvX3f2CKXfjwthAUE2DY7Q656HsBE8dWU0t3pUmCRmN8c4BzhjlIKUFs6NV2ne-2F-2BAm7WiGDE74dmvpFQDVdAP4p0WAVJUihYRiyE1F4Q-2FfKvuL-2Fi10JzVNCfZ2iJScYi7NTmmjbjVcEUIE34Fz-2BvXXCzO9nsvt-2BlOs18s4Atigq8ORhCb3BLb1g-3D-3D\">noaa.gov<\/a>\u00a0for our\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZK7dJmB0X-2FthFJVNyiLSTlsmeDcT1jrvMeyLO8gV7zMERbWn_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3Gzy4V5NeAITbHKz3kra0TrY-2BUHihuVEh08fum7g7qZ3ncPZKDipcs9vJ7BC3bDYfjgttPtF6WIFKfdnu58x36EptHfEtAuMNIFwlaeoFUvLKKsHue-2B5nHFThukl2-2FHTpZqZpcMPqBQNzpYaVIAIJxqKIVwe1n2dv9dU-2BauT7YcOZ42M0btMzNrwEdg0vep57Q-3D-3D\">latest news and features<\/a>, and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/link.mediaoutreach.meltwater.com\/ls\/click?upn=u001.rLWQltqwDexXafFwhTzwZMlr3IJ-2BMmV8G2ywiaEDayRtA4esjVBFJTVqJ4dYSShm-eo5_oG3oTjJDMuy8xXebpkcNpEVN7T4yWodcriXZQq0ZcpzEXKvnS2FphTK8kO2-2BfIJieMnd2wqxeAy4j4WNvJP7HvctrTupoxss-2FTXjDcM5Il8HuUGDm0gVWmMlCPcyqdjCBOurYmhjblXgD5uE7II-2BTfJQZ2kfe6mE-2ByK0B-2FK8FamPX-2FZDxKQsCk7d9tVhB2tMCDWBdKuuq0cBdE1KOoXA3KJiW8inMZLezdvcxKvkB-2BFSWI7sPAKgKjtCaxbg3hOOjRynlhS-2FjtoYlUjZC45wWbhIGZvblhNT0Yai9DhMi-2ByeiJ-2FIDCGWPWCXmRPvvS861UWVujfuWVG7RL0iveLo8QtnOVlFYBDfYMjvDGEW8-2BmCW0P7JCPUBsOBkLx9HTJwURycpBxXxRTlUo1rupjQgA-3D-3D\">join us on social media<\/a>.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NOAA has launched a groundbreaking new suite of operational, artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global weather prediction models, marking a significant advancement in forecast speed, efficiency, and accuracy. The models will provide forecasters with faster delivery of more accurate guidance, while using a fraction of computational resources.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":418051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover NOAA's revolutionary AI-driven weather models enhancing forecast speed, accuracy, and efficiency for better weather predictions.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"NOAA Unveils AI-Driven Weather Models for Accurate Forecasting","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.eRO67UcT0tJIgoU5kc7kOWXEL-fFhUyZjeVFr8zV5csMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840239,691840238,691822666,691836015,691840237,691840240,691833237],"class_list":{"0":"post-418046","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-aigefs-artificial-intelligence-global-ensemble-forecast-system","9":"tag-aigfs-artificial-intelligence-global-forecast-system","10":"tag-artificial-intelligence-ai","11":"tag-forecasting","12":"tag-global-weather-prediction-models","13":"tag-hgefs-hybrid-gefs","14":"tag-noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQO6K46xuENC17Rg4g1OXBaskwTJhHjNzIc_o6kDDOH5agHhLlIimiDaZfe0QtUtLYUfdMLbR5Grvz3XLpNGqCmlZErCwBDd2s8vHCT3eRDiMKReMBPt6C9ulMIp7t_QYAMeaHYksOr7gp5ckHWUhjQzC174DA.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KKG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":377982,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377982","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":0},"title":"NOAA&#8217;s Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.\u00a0 \u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"European model\"","block_context":{"text":"European model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=european-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0xyakAi0.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":388156,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388156","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":1},"title":"NOAA\u2019s 2020 Prediction Bust: \u201cU. S. Winter Outlook: Cooler North, Warmer South\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"If climate change causes everything, it causes nothing.","rel":"","context":"In \"Attribution studies\"","block_context":{"text":"Attribution studies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=attribution-studies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-24.-Mai-2025-20_11_24.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":351259,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351259","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":2},"title":"To President-Elect Trump: Recommendations for NOAA and the National Weather Service","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"I wish to offer suggestions to President-Elect Trump pertaining to NOAA and the National Weather Service (NWS) as vital changes are required in going forward. Some types of NWS forecasts are getting less accurate and we have fallen to 4th place in terms of the quality of our meteorological computer\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0imagesabout172707_WFO_lg.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0imagesabout172707_WFO_lg.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0imagesabout172707_WFO_lg.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0imagesabout172707_WFO_lg.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419226,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419226","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":3},"title":"NOAA deploys a new generation of AI-driven global weather models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I am watching them. So far, they are a joke.","rel":"","context":"In \"AI (artificial intelligence\"","block_context":{"text":"AI (artificial intelligence","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ai-artificial-intelligence"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Earth-globe-from-space-weather-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Earth-globe-from-space-weather-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Earth-globe-from-space-weather-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Earth-globe-from-space-weather-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Earth-globe-from-space-weather-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330090,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330090","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":4},"title":"NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371058,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371058","url_meta":{"origin":418046,"position":5},"title":"Did AccuWeather Write the Project 2025 NOAA Section?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Back in 2005, AccuWeather, possibly along with other commercial weather companies, convinced former senator Rick Santorum to introduce a\u00a0bill, S.786, 109th Congress, to prevent NOAA and the NWS from sharing data that was available from commercial vendors. The only support came from the weather companies.","rel":"","context":"In \"AccuWeather\"","block_context":{"text":"AccuWeather","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accuweather"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00noaa_MISSION_facebook_coverphoto.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00noaa_MISSION_facebook_coverphoto.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00noaa_MISSION_facebook_coverphoto.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00noaa_MISSION_facebook_coverphoto.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/00noaa_MISSION_facebook_coverphoto.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=418046"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418046\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":418053,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/418046\/revisions\/418053"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/418051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=418046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=418046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=418046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}