{"id":417662,"date":"2025-12-18T10:39:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417662"},"modified":"2025-12-18T10:39:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:39:13","slug":"new-study-reopens-questions-about-our-ability-to-meaningfully-assess-global-mean-temperature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417662","title":{"rendered":"New Study Reopens Questions About Our Ability to Meaningfully Assess Global Mean Temperature"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"World<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTemperature is an intensive property that is defined only in equilibrium systems and cannot be meaningfully averaged across non-equilibrium systems.\u201d \u2212 Cohler, 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2007 math proofs study<\/a><\/strong> that asserted a global mean temperature does not exist in reality (because a temperature average can only be defined in equilibrium systems) has never been disproved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, determining whether a cup of coffee is warming or cooling \u2013 and by how much \u2013 is entirely dependent on the averaging formula one arbitrarily chooses. In the study 4 averaging methods were chosen to assess change in the average coffee temperature over time. All four were shown to yield different warming vs. cooling results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Image Source:\u00a0Essex et al., 2007<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A new study reopens this debate by reasserting there are \u201cinfinite ways to average temperature.\u201d The averaging method chosen in modern \u201cclimate science\u201d is arbitrary, non-physical, and yields fundamentally different results vs. other methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEach method produces different numerical results and different [average temperature] trends over time.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Journal
Image Source:\u00a0Cohler, 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A 2020 study<\/a><\/strong> illustrating this unheralded statistical problem fundamental to modern \u201cclimate science\u201d pointed out that a large volume of scientists had calculated the global average surface temperature as ranging from 14.0 to 15.1\u00b0C from 1877 to 1913, or approximately 14.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet according to calculations from HadCRUT4, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth, the global mean temperature was 14.4\u00b0C, 14.5\u00b0C, and 14.5\u00b0C, respectively, from 1991-2018. In other words, it can be shown that there has been \u201cno change for the past 100 years\u201d in the global mean temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Academic
Image Source:\u00a0Kramm et al., 2020<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A 2007 math proofs\u00a0study\u00a0that asserted a global mean temperature does not exist in reality (because a temperature average can only be defined in equilibrium systems) has never been disproved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":417669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how averaging methods impact the assessment of global mean temperature in climate science. Discover why real averages might not exist.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Revisiting Global Mean Temperature: A Critical Analysis","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMlwvMEFRTTl0MHNPZHRTX0NRbXI1OHlIaXppZjMxOXJWckJWVlZ3RVlvWElSbEdLMDgwVDQwVlVEMHhLZEdKd1VrMTV5WXg1S3JWWUZlNl9oQ3BPMkpjYV84Q0kwdGpmb0tnUHBoQW55MXJhb2M1VU1Hc0ZGVW03SXowb0NOMjB4X2E4LTEtMTAyNHg2MDkuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6Ik5ldyBTdHVkeSBSZW9wZW5zIFF1ZXN0aW9ucyBBYm91dCBPdXIgQWJpbGl0eSB0byBNZWFuaW5nZnVsbHkgQXNzZXNzIEdsb2JhbCBNZWFuIFRlbXBlcmF0dXJlIiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE1NTgxMjQ0OX0.UR3hOfdzWXlSOwb-5a-Nlog1BPChgAdO-xrwyDfOPjQMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840189,691840187,691836232,691840190],"class_list":{"0":"post-417662","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-warmer-or-cooler","9":"tag-climate-science-3","10":"tag-global-mean-temperature-gmt","11":"tag-zonal-averages-of-temperature","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQM9t0sOdtS_CQmr58yHizif319rVrBVVVwEYoXIRlGK080T40VUD0xKdGJwUk15yYx5KrVYFe6_hCpO2Jca_8CI0tjfoKgPphAny1raoc5UMGsFFUm7Iz0oCN20x_a8-1.jpeg?fit=1570%2C933&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KEu","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":320404,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=320404","url_meta":{"origin":417662,"position":0},"title":"Evaluating The Model Projections","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Someone on the web was touting the abilities of the early climate models by referencing the study Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections by Zeke Hausfather, Henri F. Drake, Tristan Abbott, and Gavin A. Schmidt. And yes, per their study, the climate models are just wonderful in their\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate models\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0IMAGE-numerical-weather-modeling-050216-1120x534-landscape.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0IMAGE-numerical-weather-modeling-050216-1120x534-landscape.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0IMAGE-numerical-weather-modeling-050216-1120x534-landscape.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0IMAGE-numerical-weather-modeling-050216-1120x534-landscape.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0IMAGE-numerical-weather-modeling-050216-1120x534-landscape.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":380952,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=380952","url_meta":{"origin":417662,"position":1},"title":"Not All That Sensitive","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The sensitivity of the surface to changes in absorbed radiation is a central, critical question in climate science. 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The ECS is assumed to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"absorbed radiation\"","block_context":{"text":"absorbed radiation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=absorbed-radiation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0ChatGPT-Image-30.-Mai-2025-19_08_36.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":388648,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388648","url_meta":{"origin":417662,"position":2},"title":"Moving, But Not In A Straight Line","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m reminded of this by what I see as a ludicrous claim\u2014that regarding the climate, one of the more complex systems we\u2019ve ever tried to analyze and understand, mainstream climate scientists say that there is a straight-line linear relationship between changes in the radiation balance at the top of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ChatGPT-Image-8.-Juni-2025-18_50_51-1.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":329036,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329036","url_meta":{"origin":417662,"position":3},"title":"Modeling The Mysteries","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Well, every time I go to look at the climate models, I come away more confused. 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Scientific advance at the cutting edge has always been the most important aim of this blog, and I think this paper truly is\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417662","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=417662"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417662\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":417671,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417662\/revisions\/417671"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/417669"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=417662"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=417662"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=417662"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}