{"id":417662,"date":"2025-12-18T10:39:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:39:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417662"},"modified":"2025-12-18T10:39:13","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T09:39:13","slug":"new-study-reopens-questions-about-our-ability-to-meaningfully-assess-global-mean-temperature","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417662","title":{"rendered":"New Study Reopens Questions About Our Ability to Meaningfully Assess Global Mean Temperature"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"World<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTemperature is an intensive property that is defined only in equilibrium systems and cannot be meaningfully averaged across non-equilibrium systems.\u201d \u2212 Cohler, 2025<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A 2007 math proofs study<\/a><\/strong> that asserted a global mean temperature does not exist in reality (because a temperature average can only be defined in equilibrium systems) has never been disproved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, determining whether a cup of coffee is warming or cooling \u2013 and by how much \u2013 is entirely dependent on the averaging formula one arbitrarily chooses. In the study 4 averaging methods were chosen to assess change in the average coffee temperature over time. All four were shown to yield different warming vs. cooling results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Image Source:\u00a0Essex et al., 2007<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A new study reopens this debate by reasserting there are \u201cinfinite ways to average temperature.\u201d The averaging method chosen in modern \u201cclimate science\u201d is arbitrary, non-physical, and yields fundamentally different results vs. other methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEach method produces different numerical results and different [average temperature] trends over time.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Journal
Image Source:\u00a0Cohler, 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A 2020 study<\/a><\/strong> illustrating this unheralded statistical problem fundamental to modern \u201cclimate science\u201d pointed out that a large volume of scientists had calculated the global average surface temperature as ranging from 14.0 to 15.1\u00b0C from 1877 to 1913, or approximately 14.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet according to calculations from HadCRUT4, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth, the global mean temperature was 14.4\u00b0C, 14.5\u00b0C, and 14.5\u00b0C, respectively, from 1991-2018. In other words, it can be shown that there has been \u201cno change for the past 100 years\u201d in the global mean temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Academic
Image Source:\u00a0Kramm et al., 2020<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A 2007 math proofs\u00a0study\u00a0that asserted a global mean temperature does not exist in reality (because a temperature average can only be defined in equilibrium systems) has never been disproved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":417669,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how averaging methods impact the assessment of global mean temperature in climate science. Discover why real averages might not exist.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Revisiting Global Mean Temperature: A Critical Analysis","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMlwvMEFRTTl0MHNPZHRTX0NRbXI1OHlIaXppZjMxOXJWckJWVlZ3RVlvWElSbEdLMDgwVDQwVlVEMHhLZEdKd1VrMTV5WXg1S3JWWUZlNl9oQ3BPMkpjYV84Q0kwdGpmb0tnUHBoQW55MXJhb2M1VU1Hc0ZGVW03SXowb0NOMjB4X2E4LTEtMTAyNHg2MDkuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6Ik5ldyBTdHVkeSBSZW9wZW5zIFF1ZXN0aW9ucyBBYm91dCBPdXIgQWJpbGl0eSB0byBNZWFuaW5nZnVsbHkgQXNzZXNzIEdsb2JhbCBNZWFuIFRlbXBlcmF0dXJlIiwidGVtcGxhdGUiOiJoaWdod2F5IiwiZm9udCI6IiIsImJsb2dfaWQiOjE1NTgxMjQ0OX0.UR3hOfdzWXlSOwb-5a-Nlog1BPChgAdO-xrwyDfOPjQMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840189,691840187,691836232,691840190],"class_list":["post-417662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-warmer-or-cooler","tag-climate-science-3","tag-global-mean-temperature-gmt","tag-zonal-averages-of-temperature","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KEu","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":463904,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=463904","url_meta":{"origin":417662,"position":0},"title":"Comparing Equilibrium, Kinetic, and Non-Equilibrium Temperatures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/18\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"There are a number of unique conditions required to measure a thermodynamic equilibrium temperature and a separate set of conditions to measure a kinetic (or thermometer) temperature, and they are not the same. 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NMRs have a spin temperature. Electronic circuits have a noise temperature. 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