{"id":417267,"date":"2025-12-13T18:07:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-13T17:07:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417267"},"modified":"2025-12-13T18:07:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-13T17:07:25","slug":"wrong-phys-org-faulty-thermometers-arent-evidence-of-a-climate-roller-coaster","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417267","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Phys.org, Faulty Thermometers Aren\u2019t Evidence of a \u2018Climate Roller Coaster\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Map<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Phys.org recently published \u201c<\/em>Global warming amplifies extreme day-to-day temperature swings, study shows<\/em><\/a>,\u201d<\/em> reporting on a new study in Nature Climate Change<\/em> which claims that human-caused warming is intensifying rapid day-to-day temperature fluctuations, in the process creating a new category of climate hazard. This is false. The underlying study not only relies almost entirely on notably flawed climate-model assumptions, but astonishingly also ignores well-documented, real-world factors that directly affect short-term temperature variability, such as the urban heat island effect (UHI) and temperature-station siting biases. These omissions fatally undermine the study\u2019s conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Phys.org\u2019s press release asserts that \u201cextreme day-to-day temperature changes have become more frequent and intense across low- to mid-latitude regions,\u201d with researchers\u2019 \u201coptimal fingerprinting\u201d methods confirming greenhouse gases as the primary cause. It further claims this daily volatility creates \u201ca climate roller coaster\u201d harmful to public health. The underlying Nature Climate Change<\/em> study echoes this framing, presenting global maps of amplified temperature swings but never addresses the integrity\u2014or contamination\u2014of the surface data employed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the study\u2019s central flaw: Urban Heat Island (UHI) contamination<\/strong><\/a> artificially raises nighttime minimum temperatures<\/strong>, causing next-day temperatures to begin from an already elevated baseline. Artificial surfaces\u2014pavement, buildings, vehicles, heat-retaining infrastructure\u2014release stored heat overnight, pushing lows upward and exaggerating the apparent magnitude of day-to-day variations. Yet the terms \u201curban heat island\u201d or UHI do not appear even once<\/strong> in the Nature Climate Change<\/em> publication or the press release. Nor does the paper mention temperature-station placement, metadata quality, microsite compliance with quality control, or any discussion of observational uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These omissions are inexcusable, because, as the linked Heartland Institute report Corrupted Climate Stations: The Official U.S. Temperature Record Remains Fatally Flawed<\/strong><\/a> demonstrates, approximately 96% of NOAA climate stations fail to meet the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s (NOAA) own siting requirements<\/strong>, and are corrupted by localized heat sources such as asphalt, rooftops, HVAC exhaust, machinery, or reflective surfaces. Heartland\u2019s report shows that compliant stations\u2014those free of artificial heat contamination\u2014exhibit about half of the warming trend<\/strong> found in the corrupted network. See the figure below. Note the difference between the blue line (the uncorrupted stations) and the orange and red lines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These findings are backed by NOAA\u2019s own siting standards and confirm that station bias, not climate physics, drives much of the exaggerated warming in the U.S. record, and by extension, much of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the observational foundation is distorted, the derived conclusions\u2014such as \u201cincreasing day-to-day temperature volatility\u201d\u2014are also distorted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, the Nature Climate Change<\/em> authors use global reanalyses and model-based \u201coptimal fingerprinting\u201d to attribute these amplified swings to greenhouse gases. But a model in which biased data serves as a foundation will simply reinforce or exacerbate those biases. None of the physical mechanisms the authors propose\u2014soil moisture changes, pressure variability, drought feedbacks\u2014can be meaningfully evaluated if the input dataset contains systematic nighttime warming caused by UHI and faulty station placement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is precisely why the U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN),<\/a> which avoids artificial heat sources by design, shows smaller warming trends<\/strong> than the older, urban-contaminated networks. See the USCRN figure below showing maximum temperatures in the U.S. since 2005. Note the lack of increased temperature extremes (peaks) today compared to 20 years ago, or any obvious upward trend in the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Source: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) here:\u00a0<\/em>https:\/\/www.ncei.noaa.gov\/access\/monitoring\/national-temperature-index\/time-series\/anom-tmax\/1\/0<\/em><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yet the current study never references USCRN data\u2014or any equivalent bias-free baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even their health-risk findings rely on heat-biased data. If nighttime temperatures are artificially elevated due to urbanization and poor siting, the apparent \u201croller-coaster swings\u201d reflect local land-use change, not global climate physics. Any claimed health correlations with mortality data would therefore be mixing genuine weather effects with measurement artifacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s missing, in other words, is climate science\u2019s most basic requirement: separating real climate signal from non-climatic noise.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UHI, land-use change, asphalt expansion, vegetative loss, waste heat emissions, and the explosive growth of built environments all elevate nighttime minimums and increase apparent variability. The study treats all variability as atmospheric in origin, ignoring the man-made thermal reservoirs embedded in modern cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rigorous scientific analysis would have:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Examined UHI contamination explicitly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Segregated rural high-quality stations from urban or microsite-compromised ones.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Compared modeled projections to USCRN\u2019s pristine, bias-free observational network.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Quantified the effect of siting violations documented in my 2022 Corrupted Climate Stations study.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Instead, the authors rely on global models and \u201cfingerprinting\u201d techniques that simply assume the data are valid. That assumption is not supported by the evidence, and the report\u2019s conclusions cannot be meaningfully distinguished from the biases embedded in the underlying data. This is not \u201ca new extreme climate hazard\u201d\u2014it is the predictable result of modeling data with errors<\/strong>, then attributing those errors to greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Phys.org does its readers a disservice by not fact checking the Nature study and examining other possible causes for its conclusions. Instead of a thoughtful scientific examination of the novel claims made in the study it is reporting on, Phys.org\u2019s readers got a fawning, uncritical summary of the flawed Nature<\/em> study, which exaggerates day-to-day variability based on the well-documented role of UHI and siting flaws. That\u2019s not inquisitive journalism, that\u2019s promotion; in reality no better than a press release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Phys.org recently published \u201cGlobal warming amplifies extreme day-to-day temperature swings, study shows,\u201d reporting on a new study in Nature Climate Change which claims that human-caused warming is intensifying rapid day-to-day temperature fluctuations, in the process creating a new category of climate hazard. This is false. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":417275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore why claims about increased temperature volatility may be flawed, neglecting critical real-world factors like the urban heat island effect.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Flawed Study Claims Warming Causes Temperature Swings","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.gHnVY8dzdlsY72GRjyRiXCy2TN4d3NnL3kAnAho6YO0MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691821072,691819743,691840143,691828892,691839154,691824536,691833461,691828654],"class_list":{"0":"post-417267","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-model","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-corrupted-climate-stations","12":"tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administrations-noaa","13":"tag-nature-climate-change","14":"tag-phys-org","15":"tag-u-s-climate-reference-network-uscrn","16":"tag-urban-heat-island-effect-uhi","18":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Ky7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":392429,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=392429","url_meta":{"origin":417267,"position":0},"title":"Attribution Studies Don\u2019t Prove Anything About South Africa\u2019s Floods, Phys.org","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent post at Phys.org claims that a recent attribution study shows that climate change made April 2022\u2019s flooding in South Africa, \u201csignificantly\u201d worse. This is an unfalsifiable (not able to be proven or disproven experimentally or observationally) claim that ignores the complexities of weather and relies on distinctly unreliable\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"11\u201312 April 2022\"","block_context":{"text":"11\u201312 April 2022","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=11-12-april-2022"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNKT13URel4CFwcDX7JAOpIepYLrdg6DF596xOaRWZ6iWh1V6I-1P751jmny7no9Wi8LNgec44WgmJE2eZBga9qKmotQvI-6GbZIczfedT-uwTWM73Ed4evesuYo6pXj0h15XP2y-oIoej-4bOx-M7M7Xgi3g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNKT13URel4CFwcDX7JAOpIepYLrdg6DF596xOaRWZ6iWh1V6I-1P751jmny7no9Wi8LNgec44WgmJE2eZBga9qKmotQvI-6GbZIczfedT-uwTWM73Ed4evesuYo6pXj0h15XP2y-oIoej-4bOx-M7M7Xgi3g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNKT13URel4CFwcDX7JAOpIepYLrdg6DF596xOaRWZ6iWh1V6I-1P751jmny7no9Wi8LNgec44WgmJE2eZBga9qKmotQvI-6GbZIczfedT-uwTWM73Ed4evesuYo6pXj0h15XP2y-oIoej-4bOx-M7M7Xgi3g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNKT13URel4CFwcDX7JAOpIepYLrdg6DF596xOaRWZ6iWh1V6I-1P751jmny7no9Wi8LNgec44WgmJE2eZBga9qKmotQvI-6GbZIczfedT-uwTWM73Ed4evesuYo6pXj0h15XP2y-oIoej-4bOx-M7M7Xgi3g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNKT13URel4CFwcDX7JAOpIepYLrdg6DF596xOaRWZ6iWh1V6I-1P751jmny7no9Wi8LNgec44WgmJE2eZBga9qKmotQvI-6GbZIczfedT-uwTWM73Ed4evesuYo6pXj0h15XP2y-oIoej-4bOx-M7M7Xgi3g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377615,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377615","url_meta":{"origin":417267,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Phys.org, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing A Rise in Lost School Days","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a\u00a0recent editorial published by Phys.org, researchers claim that climate change is driving more powerful and frequent hurricanes, which in turn are causing widespread school closures labeling it an \u201coverlooked consequence\u201d of our supposedly worsening climate. This narrative is false. The available data shows no trend of increasing hurricane frequency\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-102.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-102.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-102.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-102.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186028,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186028","url_meta":{"origin":417267,"position":2},"title":"Contra, The Hill, Climate Change Is Not Causing a Coral Catastrophe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A story in\u00a0The Hill\u00a0is publicizing research which claims most coral reefs are doomed because of climate change induced warmer oceans. This is false. Most coral reefs are thriving, having evolved during periods when oceans were warmer than at present. Research indicates that recent coral reef bleaching events have been the\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0coast-g68c707f9b_1920-pixabay-2.3.22-1024x558-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0coast-g68c707f9b_1920-pixabay-2.3.22-1024x558-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C558&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0coast-g68c707f9b_1920-pixabay-2.3.22-1024x558-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C558&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0coast-g68c707f9b_1920-pixabay-2.3.22-1024x558-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C558&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186630,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186630","url_meta":{"origin":417267,"position":3},"title":"Contra, The Hill, Climate Change Is Not Causing a Coral Catastrophe","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A story in\u00a0The Hill\u00a0is publicizing research which claims most coral reefs are doomed because of climate change induced warmer oceans. This is false. Most coral reefs are thriving, having evolved during periods when oceans were warmer than at present. 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Most news outlets covering the story, like\u00a0CBC,\u00a0France 24, and the\u00a0New York Post, only mentioned climate change\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0new-coral-Screenshot-2022-01-21.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0new-coral-Screenshot-2022-01-21.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0new-coral-Screenshot-2022-01-21.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/0new-coral-Screenshot-2022-01-21.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":191877,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=191877","url_meta":{"origin":417267,"position":5},"title":"Ancient El Ni\u00f1os reveal limits to future climate projections","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/03\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Unravelling the assumptions and the strange cause\/effect logic suggested by the article is a challenge here. They say they\u2019re looking for \u201eclues on how sensitive El Ni\u00f1o is to changes in climate\u201c, but \u201eif there\u2019s another big El Ni\u00f1o, it\u2019s going to be very hard to attribute it to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00elninoconditions7180443_6ab92480be_o.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00elninoconditions7180443_6ab92480be_o.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00elninoconditions7180443_6ab92480be_o.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00elninoconditions7180443_6ab92480be_o.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/00elninoconditions7180443_6ab92480be_o.jpg?fit=1200%2C923&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=417267"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417267\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":417277,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417267\/revisions\/417277"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/417275"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=417267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=417267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=417267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}