{"id":417139,"date":"2025-12-12T17:36:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T16:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417139"},"modified":"2025-12-17T22:20:54","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T21:20:54","slug":"deconstructing-the-myth-more-energy-in-the-system-means-more-extreme-weather","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417139","title":{"rendered":"Deconstructing the Myth: \u201cMore Energy in the System Means More Extreme Weather\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"358\" data-attachment-id=\"417156\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417156\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?fit=1726%2C855&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1726,855\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C358&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=723%2C358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A snowy landscape featuring evergreen trees with a white sine wave superimposed over the scene, symbolizing oscillatory climate patterns.\" class=\"wp-image-417156\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=1024%2C507&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=300%2C149&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=768%2C380&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=1536%2C761&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=640%2C317&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?resize=1200%2C594&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?w=1726&amp;ssl=1 1726w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/12\/09\/__trashed-6\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>By Charles Rotter and Anthony Watts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weather and climate both operate through natural oscillations\u2014recurring rises and falls that resemble overlapping sine waves rather than straight-line trends. Daily and seasonal weather patterns are the most familiar examples: temperatures warm and cool, storm tracks shift from north to south and then back, and atmospheric pressure systems migrate in predictable cycles. These regular patterns demonstrate that even the \u201cshort-term\u201d atmosphere is inherently rhythmic, shaped by the Earth\u2019s rotation (<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Coriolis_force\">Coriolis force<\/a>), tilt, and uneven solar heating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On longer time scales, climate is driven by larger oscillatory systems such as El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Each of these produces alternating warm and cool phases with significant impacts on global weather\u2014affecting rainfall, drought, hurricanes, and temperature anomalies. They don\u2019t disappear just because climate discussions focus heavily on greenhouse gases; in fact, these cycles often dominate the year-to-year swings that get labeled as extreme or unprecedented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even broader climate variations, such as those tied to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/science-research\/earth-science\/milankovitch-orbital-cycles-and-their-role-in-earths-climate\/\">Milankovitch cycles<\/a>, show that Earth\u2019s long-term temperature history is a repeating rhythm of warm and cold epochs\u2014ice ages and interglacials\u2014arising from predictable orbital mechanics. Instrumental records reflect similar behavior: warming and cooling phases in the 19th, 20th, and 21st centuries align well with these natural oscillations. Yet models frequently struggle to capture the amplitude and timing of these cycles, leading to misattribution of short-term warming peaks to human-caused forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"356\" data-attachment-id=\"417141\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417141\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?fit=780%2C384&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"780,384\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?fit=723%2C356&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?resize=723%2C356&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph depicting sine-wave components of proxy temperature records, illustrating a dominant millennial sine wave alongside individual centennial and decadal sine waves.\" class=\"wp-image-417141\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?w=780&amp;ssl=1 780w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?resize=300%2C148&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?resize=768%2C378&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-242.png?resize=640%2C315&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recognizing the cyclical nature of both weather and climate isn\u2019t a denial of external influences\u2014it\u2019s an acknowledgment that natural variability is fundamental to how the system works. When such oscillations are ignored instead of acknowledging their significance, we end up with a skewed view of what drives changes in amplitude. The simple point is: yes there are oscillations in the climate system but<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>the climate system is not a simple oscillator.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A large number, perhaps the majority, of people, including many \u201cclimate scientists\u201d, have a subconscious mental model of the climate. Without realizing it, they think about weather (and in the long term, climate) as if it were a giant oscillating mechanism, endlessly swinging above and below some ideal baseline. Every winter, when a deep Arctic blast reaches the mid-latitudes, that picture gets dragged out and surfaces in discourse. It is also usually coupled with the phrase \u201cpolar vortex.\u201d The same claim appears on cue: the polar vortex is \u201cswinging harder\u201d because \u201cextra energy\u201d has been added to the system. The image people carry around is a planetary sine wave being pushed into larger and larger excursions, as if carbon dioxide driven heat were simply turning up the amplitude dial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"522\" data-attachment-id=\"417142\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417142\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?fit=1108%2C800&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1108,800\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?fit=723%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?resize=723%2C522&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"An infographic explaining the polar vortex, illustrating its structure and dynamics, with labels indicating strong and weak jet streams, stable and wavy polar vortex, and the movement of cold and warm air.\" class=\"wp-image-417142\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?resize=1024%2C739&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?resize=300%2C217&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?resize=768%2C555&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?resize=640%2C462&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-243.png?w=1108&amp;ssl=1 1108w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">When the Arctic Oscillation is in a positive phase, the polar vortex is a tight circle of cold air bounded by strong jet stream winds. When the Arctic Oscillation is in a negative phase, the vortex is wavy and bounded by weak jet stream winds.\u00a0\u2014 Credit:\u00a0NOAA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What keeps this idea alive is that very few people ever question the underlying cartoon. A sine wave feels authoritative. It looks analytical. It resembles the kind of sketch someone might make to explain \u201cthe climate,\u201d so it slips into the discussion without challenge. And once climate is imagined as a wiggly line, any increase in energy must, in that mental model, stretch the wiggles vertically. The simplicity is exactly what makes the model appealing \u2014 and exactly what makes it misleading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The climate system is not an oscillator. It has oscillatory components, but the whole system is a gradient-driven heat engine. It moves energy from where there is a lot of it (the tropics) to where there is very little (the poles). If more energy enters the system, the distribution of that energy doesn\u2019t increase the amplitude of some hypothetical wave. Instead, the equator-to-pole gradient changes, because the poles warm more rapidly than the tropics. Meanwhile, tropical thunderstorms act like an atmospheric relief valve that limits how warm the equator can become. The system redistributes energy; it doesn\u2019t behave like a spring someone tightens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This misunderstanding is best handled visually. Most people think in pictures, not equations. So, if we want to clear away the oscillator myth, a sequence of animations helps. The first shows the clean mental model people already carry. The second shows the popular misconception \u2014 the one invoked every time a deep freeze hits Buffalo. And the third shows a more honest cartoon representation of what happens when a heat-engine system warms unevenly across latitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To begin, here\u2019s the animation that matches what most people imagine when they think of the climate, a simple sine wave, calm and predictable, vibrating around a fixed baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Animation 1: The Default Mental Model, A Stable Regular Oscillator<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"160\" data-attachment-id=\"417147\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417147\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-244.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,160\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-244.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-244.png?resize=600%2C160&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A simple sine wave representing a stable regular oscillator, depicted in blue on a grid background.\" class=\"wp-image-417147\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-244.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-244.png?resize=300%2C80&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the picture most people carry around without ever articulating it. A tidy oscillation, always returning to the same average, with peaks and troughs equally spaced in time. You see a smooth world cycling gently between \u201ca little warmer\u201d and \u201ca little colder.\u201d Nothing here suggests that putting more energy into the system would move the baseline. The only available knob is amplitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now we get to the belief that dominates public rhetoric. Whenever extreme cold shows up \u2014 not extreme warmth, which is predictable enough \u2014 we hear that the climate is now \u201cwhiplashing,\u201d \u201cswinging harder,\u201d or \u201coscillating with greater amplitude.\u201d The implication is that adding energy to the system somehow causes bigger deviations, both warm and cold, even though nobody ever explains why a system supposedly getting warmer overall would produce more extreme cold. The intuitive picture silently does the work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To capture that misconception, here is Animation 2. It begins with the same amplitude as Animation 1, then grows dramatically as the cycle progresses. This is the cartoon model behind the claim that \u201cclimate change makes cold extremes more extreme,\u201d which is trotted out with particular enthusiasm during winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Animation 2: The Misconception \u2014 Amplitude Growing With Added Energy<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"160\" data-attachment-id=\"417149\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417149\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-246.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,160\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-246.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-246.png?resize=600%2C160&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A red sine wave oscillation displayed on a grid background, representing a stable and regular oscillatory pattern.\" class=\"wp-image-417149\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-246.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-246.png?resize=300%2C80&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the internal movie millions of people play in their heads without realizing it. In this picture, the climate is a mechanical oscillator. Add energy, and the oscillations stretch vertically. The system doesn\u2019t shift; it spasms. Cold extremes plunge lower; warm extremes shoot higher. This is the \u201cclimate whiplash\u201d graphic in its purest form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The contradiction becomes obvious the moment we compare it with the actual physical pattern associated with a warming world \u2014 specifically, polar amplification and tropical constraint. The tropics don\u2019t warm as freely as the poles because once ocean surfaces reach the upper-20s Celsius, deep convection ramps up. The atmosphere begins exporting heat upward more aggressively, and the resulting anvils and cloud fields reflect more incoming sunlight. The same convective towers that remove moisture also transport energy away from the surface, limiting how far temperatures can rise. These feedbacks aren\u2019t precise or fully quantified, but they do create a regime in which large, sustained increases in tropical sea-surface temperatures become increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, polar regions lack these stabilizing mechanisms entirely, which is why warming, when it occurs, tends to be concentrated at high latitudes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A weaker gradient means the climate engine has less temperature contrast to work with, not more. And in gradient-driven systems, a weaker contrast typically yields a calmer system, not a more volatile one. The public rarely hears this because the oscillator myth is too convenient. It allows every cold event to be reclassified as \u201cfurther evidence\u201d of warming. The sine wave simply expands to absorb all contradictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To correct the picture, the third animation shows what a simplified warming world might look like in cartoon form. The baseline rises \u2014 most noticeably at the low end \u2014 and the amplitude narrows slightly. The upper bound rises a bit, but the lower bound rises much more. The whole wave shifts upward, because the system is warming, but the total vertical range (our cartoon version of the equator-to-pole spread) gets smaller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn\u2019t a forecast. It\u2019s a conceptual picture that at least respects the idea of uneven warming across latitudes. It doesn\u2019t claim the real world behaves like a sine wave; it simply avoids the mistake of treating energy input as amplitude growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Animation 3: Baseline Rising, Gradient Narrowing<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"160\" data-attachment-id=\"417151\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417151\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-248.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"600,160\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-248.png?fit=600%2C160&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-248.png?resize=600%2C160&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A simple sine wave illustration depicting a smooth oscillation pattern, highlighting the cyclical nature of climate variations.\" class=\"wp-image-417151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-248.png?w=600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-248.png?resize=300%2C80&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most readers will grasp the point immediately. The third picture strips away complexity and leaves only the structure of the argument: warming strengthens most at the bottom of the distribution, not the top, and the gradient shrinks. The oscillation does not stretch into a taller oscillation. The entire band narrows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The contrast between Animation 2 and Animation 3 reveals something deeper than a physics correction. It exposes the rhetorical trick used to shoehorn all weather events into a single storyline. When warm extremes happen, they are said to validate the warming trend. When cold extremes happen, they are said to validate the \u201cincreasing amplitude\u201d story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once readers appreciate that the oscillator metaphor itself is flawed, the winter rhetoric loses its mystique. A polar outbreak becomes a weather event, not a metaphysical expression of a stressed climate oscillator. And a warming world with strong polar amplification no longer magically produces more extreme cold while simultaneously claiming credit for eliminating it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The goal of these animations is not to endorse any particular theory of climate behavior. The goal is to remove a seductive but incorrect mental model that quietly, yet powerfully, shapes public debate. The real climate system is complicated enough without adding imaginary springs and oscillators. At the very least, we can stop pretending that a planetary heat engine behaves like a plucked guitar string. And once that picture fades, a number of confident wintertime pronouncements fade with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bookmark this post. Winter is upon us. You&#8217;ll have plenty of use for it. And remember, spring is just around the corner!<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" data-attachment-id=\"417154\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=417154\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?fit=720%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"720,405\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?fit=720%2C405&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?resize=720%2C405&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A coiled metal spring leaning against a gray wall, partially covered in snow.\" class=\"wp-image-417154\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?w=720&amp;ssl=1 720w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?resize=300%2C169&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/image-250.png?resize=640%2C360&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weather and climate both operate through natural oscillations\u2014recurring rises and falls that resemble overlapping sine waves rather than straight-line trends. Daily and seasonal weather patterns are the most familiar examples: temperatures warm and cool, storm tracks shift from north to south and then back, and atmospheric pressure systems migrate in predictable cycles. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":417156,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the cyclical nature of weather and climate, revealing why it\u2019s a complex heat engine, not just an oscillating system.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.q9vEIz7Xaj9wBrW4eY5nV0v7A1VvchLvcaWgdHLnNioMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691832775,691818514,691840135,691818828],"class_list":["post-417139","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","tag-el-nino-la-nina","tag-extreme-weather","tag-natural-oscillations","tag-pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQP2fhnGuY__sd-rHqxy96WeWaakg-3zUZ2iDphmPeuM1vH3eWLSAfcIIgsW6mVmkyl_mztnafRvt0DyY3Q8qYPu-z3OXl6wzfmhy6vd_n3JsClsM9Ygo_1XwMccs8bj-1.jpeg?fit=1726%2C855&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Kw3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":389931,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=389931","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":0},"title":"Climate Oscillations 9: Arctic &amp; North Atlantic Oscillations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also called the Northern Annular Mode or NAM. It is analogous to the Southern Annular Mode or SAM discussed in\u00a0Climate Oscillations 5. However, there is a large difference, whereas SAM is an oscillation over an ocean that surrounds land, NAM is an oscillation over land\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Oscillation (AO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Oscillation (AO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-oscillation-ao"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0figure-3.jpg?fit=1200%2C1029&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393316,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393316","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 12: The Causes &amp; Significance","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"While internal variability may play a role in our observed oscillations, it is possible that gravitational forces and changes in solar output provide the pacing of the oscillations. Since all climate oscillations clearly influence the others through a mechanism named \u201cteleconnections,\u201d if the pacing of a few of the oscillations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"astronomical periods\"","block_context":{"text":"astronomical periods","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=astronomical-periods"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330851,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330851","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":2},"title":"Carbon Dioxide and a Warming Climate are not problems","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The featured image for this post, also shown below, is part of figure 2 from the paper. It shows the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index compared to the detrended HadCRUT4 global average surface temperature record, the similarity is obvious. The AMO is the North Atlantic sea surface temperature record, detrended.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1200%2C491&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1200%2C491&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1200%2C491&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1200%2C491&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0moc_diagram_f.jpg?fit=1200%2C491&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":388923,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388923","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":3},"title":"Climate Oscillations 8: The NPI and PDO","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The North Pacific Index (NPI) is computed from the area-weighted sea level air pressure (SLP) over the region 30\u00b0N-65\u00b0N and 160\u00b0E-140\u00b0W. It measures interannual to multidecadal variations in Pacific atmospheric circulation. As explained in Trenberth and Hurrel, the winter Aleutian low pressure system moves on a decadal time scale and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Oscillations\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Oscillations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-oscillations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0AQOWSRn5VhbxSwehcF5tXVPr9ddSTiFkrViWBwk5l696KUdA-PAJczCvq5PWent90Fs91oBuotw6YvXhCA7u8Hh7fkffSJliTVkjRNbSp0oUEKMoUYmAT4tq0VhjTImYlt0B5eKqSIkaRmzen6lP16GP_F1O7g-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":354072,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354072","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":4},"title":"Michael Mann\u2019s Latest Attempts to Support the \u2018Hockey Stick\u2019 Graph Aren\u2019t Even Convincing Alarmists","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Atlantic hurricane season has come to an end, and the global warming believers have been looking for records to ascribe to global warming. According to a\u00a0NOAA\u00a0news report, the end-of-season flourish of cyclone activity was as predicted, and a record for the period. The\u00a0BBC Weather\u00a0commented that the activity corresponded with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/02024-02-15-17_02_48-mann-thumb-clean.jpg-1800%C3%971013-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C671&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":348355,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=348355","url_meta":{"origin":417139,"position":5},"title":"Naturally Hot, Exaggeration Not","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/22\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cWhat has come to be known as \u2018weather attribution,\u2019 research assigning causation to observed weather events, is fraught with methodological problems. Veteran climate scientist Roger A. Pielke Jr. in his Substack publication The Honest Broker calls it \u2018weather attribution alchemy\u2019.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/428cb5e678da63e8f316391bc0d6116d.jpg?fit=1200%2C695&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417139","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=417139"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417139\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":417159,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417139\/revisions\/417159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/417156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=417139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=417139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=417139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}