{"id":416664,"date":"2025-12-09T08:39:42","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T07:39:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416664"},"modified":"2025-12-09T08:39:45","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T07:39:45","slug":"exclusive-uk-office-of-budget-responsibilitys-latest-climate-fear-mongering-claims-based-on-junk-findings-from-retracted-nature-paper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416664","title":{"rendered":"EXCLUSIVE: UK Office of Budget Responsibility\u2019s Latest Climate Fear Mongering Claims Based on Junk Findings from Retracted Nature Paper\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Chris Morrison<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

One of the biggest scandals so far in climate science publishing has suckered in a number of government policy advisers around the world including the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Last July, the British Budget-leaking<\/a> bunglers estimated that the country\u2019s Gross National Product (GNP) would be 7.8% less in 50 years\u2019 time<\/a> due to the effect of human-caused climate change. Newly-revised \u2018climate impact\u2019 figures suggest that annual borrowing to fund the national debt would be over \u00a350 billion higher at 2025 prices. The claims update and increase previous September 2024 guesses due to \u201cseveral significant developments\u2026 in the evidence base\u201d. An in-depth investigation by the Daily Sceptic <\/em>can reveal that these updated figures are junk since they are linked directly to the disgraced paper called Kotz et al<\/em> (KLW24)<\/a> that was retracted this month by Nature<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OBR is not alone in having statistical egg all over its face since the work that arose from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a known nest of hard-line climate activists, was widely used by other government organisations including the US Congressional Budget Office, the OECD and the World Bank. All seem to have relied on a so-called damage impacts model found in KLW24 that produced the headline claim that the world would be poorer over the next century by $78 trillion due to humans fiddling with the climate thermostat. Catsnip of course, to mainstream climate catastrophising clots with suggestions from the Green Blob-funded\u00a0Climate Brief<\/em>\u00a0that the paper was the\u00a0second most featured<\/a>\u00a0climate work in the media last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now it has all ended in tears and disgrace. The Nature <\/em>retraction has been long (too long!) in coming since it has been obvious for some time that the paper was riddled with fatal flaws. The authors had admitted that the errors were too substantial for a correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OBR\u2019s latest estimates of climate damage are based on a rise of 3\u00b0C from pre-industrial times and are \u201cinformed by NGFS Phase V\u201d. This is a key admission. For its economic damages projections, the OBR relied on Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios which explicitly incorporated the Kotz et al <\/em>paper. This information updates a NGFS damage function model that estimates GDP losses from climate impacts. Comments in the OBR report along with footnotes reference both NGFS Phase V and Kotz et al<\/em>. \u201cThe most recent data and updated modelling suggest that the damage to GDP from climate change is likely to be more severe than previously thought\u201d, observes the OBR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NGFS was set up at the height of the recent Green Mania by a consortium<\/a> of central banks and supervisory authorities. It produces research and scenario development along with what is called best practice sharing on climate and environmental risks in finance. It has a distinctly turn of the decade feel about it with the financial and business world now moving on from its pie-in-the-sky platitudes. The connection with the Kotz paper is unlikely to improve its image, particularly with the government organisations that fell hook, line and sinker for its Phase V inventions. It still claims support in around 90 countries but not, alas, in the most important financial country in the world. It didn\u2019t take long for Trump in America to withdraw the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Department of the Treasury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April 2024, a hysterical Guardian<\/em> went into climate catastrophising overdrive by reporting the Kotz guess that world income would fall by a nearly a fifth<\/a> within 26 years. The political clickbait kicker was clearly displayed in the Guardian\u2019s<\/em> first paragraph with a note that \u201cthe costs of damage will be six times higher than the price of limiting global heating to 2\u00b0C\u201d. Lead author Maximillian Kotz was noted to claim that the strong income reductions were caused by climate impacts on, amongst others, agricultural yields, labour productivity and infrastructure. To date, the Guardian<\/em> does not seem to have thought it necessary to inform its readers about the retraction, nor has it made any corrections to its original fantasy report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is wrong with the Kotz paper? Where to begin? It appears that it suffered from a combination of data inaccuracies and methodology shortcomings that fundamentally undermined the core predictions of climate-driven economic damage. The problems appear to have cascaded through the report and were acknowledged as too substantial for a mere correction. Almost unbelievably, it appears that problems over a Uzbekistan economic dataset from 1995\u20131999 led to model estimates of temperature impacts on growth inflating global projections by a factor of around three. For their part, the authors have issued a revised paper for \u2018peer review\u2019 with slightly lower catastrophising claims. But the world is moving on from Net Zero and the market for scary nonsense is diminishing by the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OBR needs to amend its figures in the light of the Kotz retraction. The NGFS has acknowledged the central role played by Kotz in underpinning the physical risk estimates in Phase V. It has advised users to consider this limitation<\/a> when making up, pardon, calculating its own figures using the scenarios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

After this scientific car crash, it might be preferable for the OBR to get out of the climate catastrophising business altogether. Any serious number-crunching economist should be appalled at having to report fantasy figures produced by useless computer climate models. In addition, it is patently obvious that the OBR knows little about the science of climate change. In the first paragraph, it promotes its fictional impact report by quoting a recent five-year temperature record. That short period is practically weather, not a meaningful climate trend. It then goes on to suggest that the UK economy is facing \u201cincreasingly volatile and extreme weather\u201d, a common scare that is not backed up by the data. Then it reports that temperatures will continue to rise until the emission of all \u2018greenhouse\u2019 gases reach zero, a claim that has no validity based on observations and measurements in both the historical and paleo climate records.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems not to have occurred to the OBR that an extreme Net Zero solution will lead to world starvation, death on a truly shocking scale, economic collapse and global societal breakdown. Even the Guardian <\/em>would baulk at reporting on the almost unimaginable cost of all that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor<\/em>. Follow him on X<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the biggest scandals so far in climate science publishing has suckered in a number of government policy advisers around the world including the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Last July, the British Budget-leaking bunglers estimated that the country\u2019s Gross National Product (GNP) would be 7.8% less in 50 years\u2019 time due to the effect of human-caused climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":416667,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how flawed data and retracted studies impact climate change economic predictions by the UK's Office for Budget Responsibility.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"UK OBR's Climate Damage Claims: Exposed as Junk Science","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.p6GIVGaNVhrjNYLmpY4feHFDKjSZ7kt3p69KQU1KW4sMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818608,691819134,691818056,691818153,691822002,691840059,691822122,691818154,691818737,691818262,691840058],"class_list":{"0":"post-416664","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-activists","9":"tag-climate-alarmism","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-climate-models","12":"tag-green-blob","13":"tag-maximillian-kotz","14":"tag-nature","15":"tag-net-zero","16":"tag-potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research","17":"tag-the-guardian","18":"tag-uk-office-for-budget-responsibility-obr","20":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Firefly_A-dramatic-composite-showing-a-cracked-dry-earth-globe-juxtaposed-with-a-blurred-re-493234.webp?fit=2304%2C1792&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Koo","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":416251,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416251","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":0},"title":"Billions in green subsidies to be added to household bills","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Households face paying billions more in energy bills to fund green subsidy costs that were not outlined in Rachel Reeves\u2019s Budget last week.","rel":"","context":"In \"Department of Energy & Climate Change\"","block_context":{"text":"Department of Energy & Climate Change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=department-of-energy-climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMPXgiNY_kVJqhtm9XJTEZazw7aiOEWXisgqFBvDBFXd1vye-xyILENIpYyKDaEjdzN6ypnGH2htm81hFjDmf4AKicOjSDmX1t7tC3QJhvSNOBwBu_ovzYtWChD15y3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMPXgiNY_kVJqhtm9XJTEZazw7aiOEWXisgqFBvDBFXd1vye-xyILENIpYyKDaEjdzN6ypnGH2htm81hFjDmf4AKicOjSDmX1t7tC3QJhvSNOBwBu_ovzYtWChD15y3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMPXgiNY_kVJqhtm9XJTEZazw7aiOEWXisgqFBvDBFXd1vye-xyILENIpYyKDaEjdzN6ypnGH2htm81hFjDmf4AKicOjSDmX1t7tC3QJhvSNOBwBu_ovzYtWChD15y3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMPXgiNY_kVJqhtm9XJTEZazw7aiOEWXisgqFBvDBFXd1vye-xyILENIpYyKDaEjdzN6ypnGH2htm81hFjDmf4AKicOjSDmX1t7tC3QJhvSNOBwBu_ovzYtWChD15y3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMPXgiNY_kVJqhtm9XJTEZazw7aiOEWXisgqFBvDBFXd1vye-xyILENIpYyKDaEjdzN6ypnGH2htm81hFjDmf4AKicOjSDmX1t7tC3QJhvSNOBwBu_ovzYtWChD15y3.jpeg?fit=1200%2C697&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":387991,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=387991","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":1},"title":"Net Zero to Cost Taxpayers \u00a3800 Billion, Warns OBR","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Britain\u2019s move to a Net Zero economy will cost taxpayers more than \u00a3800 billion over the next two decades, the OBR \u2013 the UK\u2019s fiscal watchdog \u2013 has said. But even this is based on implausibly generous assumptions, say critics.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0wind.jpeg?fit=1200%2C666&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0wind.jpeg?fit=1200%2C666&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0wind.jpeg?fit=1200%2C666&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0wind.jpeg?fit=1200%2C666&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/0wind.jpeg?fit=1200%2C666&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":430355,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=430355","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":2},"title":"Another \u00a3150 Billion For Net\u00a0Zero\u2013OBR","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Office for Budget Responsibility has published its latest Economic & Fiscal Outlook, following the Chancellor\u2019s Spring Statement this week. The Outlook contains details on the Government\u2019s tax and spending plans for the next five years.","rel":"","context":"In \"decarbonisation\"","block_context":{"text":"decarbonisation","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=decarbonisation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Another-150-Billion-For-Net-Zero%E2%80%93OBR1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Another-150-Billion-For-Net-Zero%E2%80%93OBR1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Another-150-Billion-For-Net-Zero%E2%80%93OBR1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Another-150-Billion-For-Net-Zero%E2%80%93OBR1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288877,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288877","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":3},"title":"Net Zero Electricity Fantasies to Cost British Consumers \u00a3100 Billion Over Next Six Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From The Daily Sceptic BY\u00a0CHRIS MORRISON Net Zero electricity taxes and levies are set to cost British consumers\u00a0almost \u00a3100 billion\u00a0over the next six years, according to the latest official figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The \u2018environmental levies\u2019 total includes a variety of green rackets from paying suppliers\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-566.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-566.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-566.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image-566.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":430850,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=430850","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":4},"title":"CCC Deny Reality","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has released a new report to complement its 2025 advice on the UK\u2019s Seventh Carbon Budget.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Change Committee (CCC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Change Committee (CCC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change-committee-ccc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Ed-Miliband-witchery-2.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Ed-Miliband-witchery-2.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Ed-Miliband-witchery-2.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Ed-Miliband-witchery-2.jpg?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252297,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252297","url_meta":{"origin":416664,"position":5},"title":"The OBR\u2019s curious predictions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) recently published its\u00a0predictions\u00a0about how the cost of environmental levies might change over the next few years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Contracts for Difference (CfD)\"","block_context":{"text":"Contracts for Difference (CfD)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=contracts-for-difference-cfd"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Net-Zero-Buildings.jpg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Net-Zero-Buildings.jpg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Net-Zero-Buildings.jpg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Net-Zero-Buildings.jpg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0Net-Zero-Buildings.jpg?fit=1200%2C843&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=416664"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":416671,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/416664\/revisions\/416671"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/416667"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=416664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=416664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=416664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}