{"id":416380,"date":"2025-12-06T20:28:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-06T19:28:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416380"},"modified":"2025-12-25T01:09:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-25T00:09:06","slug":"canada-summer-daily-low-temperature-trends-1900-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416380","title":{"rendered":"Canada Summer Daily Low Temperature Trends, 1900-2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Roy Spencer, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

December 5th, 2025 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.<\/small><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOTE<\/strong>: This is the Tmin (daily minimum temperature) version of the Canada temperature trend results I\u00a0posted yesterday<\/a>, which were for Tmax (daily maximum temperatures). These results are quite different: whereas the high temperatures have seen essentially no warming trends across southern Canada since 1900, the nighttime temperatures have warmed in each one of the 6 provinces. In the next few days, I will post just how much these observed Canadian temperature trends depart from the CMIP6 climate model simulations, which are the primary tool being used to change energy policy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

SUMMARY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Over the period 1900-2023, the average summer (JJA) daily low temperatures across the six southernmost large provinces of Canada (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec) show warming trends, averaging +0.14 C\/decade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The strongest warming (+0.18 C\/decade) occurred for the coolest summer nights (coolest 3 days per summer month), while the warmest summer nights warmed at +0.10 C\/decade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Whereas 7 of the 10 warmest summer daytime (high) temperatures occurred in the 1930s, 8 of 10 of the warmest nighttime (low) temperatures have occurred since 2003.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. Results for the 6 provinces separately are also presented.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Below I present analyses of summertime daily low temperature (Tmin) trends from all available stations in the 6 southernmost large provinces, based upon the daily Global Historical Climate Network (GHCNd) dataset. These are the 6 provinces that border the Lower 48 and contain 86% of Canada\u2019s population. (The results for daily high temperatures [Tmax] were\u00a0posted yesterday<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I simply averaged together the relevant statistics (monthly average Tmin, average of the warmest 3 days\u2019 Tmin in each month, and average of the coolest 3 days\u2019 Tmin in each month) from all available stations. Each station had to have at least 90% of the days in a month reporting data for that month to be included in the analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Since stations come and go over the years, and since there are some large terrain elevation variations in western Canada, I performed an elevation correction to these Tmin metrics, in all provinces, using the departure of each year\u2019s station-average elevation from the all-year (1900-2023) station average elevation, using a lapse rate of 6.5 deg. C per km. Corrections for average changes in station-average latitude were not done, which might be necessary in the winter since there are large North-South gradients in air temperature then. Such corrections in the summer would likely be small, but I can revisit that nuance at a later time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    I\u2019ll start with the 6-province average Tmin temperature time series, along with the total number of stations available in each year. In all plots that follow, I list the linear temperature trends, but plot a 3rd order polynomial fit to the data to help capture any multi-decadal variations not well reflected in simple linear trends. In all provinces the number of stations increases from 1900 to the 1970s, then decreases substantially in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As can be seen in the first plot (averages for all 6 major provinces), there has been an average summertime warming trend of +0.14 C\/decade.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    I have also annotated 2021, which experienced the extreme heatwave in late June in western Canada. That event helped to push the warmest 3-day average Tmin metric (red curve) to the highest average temperature of any year since 1900. (Just to be clear, this is the warmest 3 days in each month in *minimum* daily temperature [Tmin]).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Notably, 8 of the 10 warmest summers in the all-days average Tmin have occurred since 2003. But, as I will show in the next few days, numbers matter: these warming trends are well below what the CMIP6 climate models produce for the same region of Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Individual Provinces<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The results for the individual provinces follow. I present them without comment; my Canadian friends can peruse the results for their home province if they wish. These are presented from West to East:<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
    \n
    \"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
    \n
    \"Line<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
    \n
    \"Line<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
    \n
    \"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
    \n
    \"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    This is the Tmin (daily minimum temperature) version of the Canada temperature trend results I posted yesterday, which were for Tmax (daily maximum temperatures). These results are quite different: whereas the high temperatures have seen essentially no warming trends across southern Canada since 1900, the nighttime temperatures have warmed in each one of the 6 provinces. In the next few days I will post just how much these observed Canadian temperature trends depart from the CMIP6 climate model simulations, which are the primary tool being used to change energy policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":416399,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvaTAud3AuY29tXC9jbGltYXRlLXNjaWVuY2UucHJlc3NcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjVcLzEyXC8wQVFQTHFYNk5TclVwTmQ0TlpHOHpOcGJXLUFORHBoUGxPeWtEOEpsczRTeWtmRjJXQXJvZlJHNXFjM2I5cVBFSXVwbEZmcGJxLTZZS1BfbFZLbkx5aTB6LWh5d08xWTNlY2VNU3hERks0M2hnQno2cHFkaVpLWFdjOUVIVGgwMWouanBlZz9maXQ9NzIzJTJDNTkxJnNzbD0xIiwidHh0IjoiQ2FuYWRhIFN1bW1lciBEYWlseSBMb3cgVGVtcGVyYXR1cmUgVHJlbmRzLCAxOTAwLTIwMjMiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.IoEJj4F3Mgf_oU9GYfVgMFToFcFb8y53oy_ZPKzWKM8MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691840029,691820083,691839993,691840030,691840028,691840027],"class_list":{"0":"post-416380","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-6-provinces","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-global-historical-climate-network-ghcnd-dataset","11":"tag-period-1900-2023","12":"tag-tmax-daily-maximum-temperatures","13":"tag-tmin-daily-minimum-temperature","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQPLqX6NSrUpNd4NZG8zNpbW-ANDphPlOykD8Jls4SykfF2WArofRG5qc3b9qPEIuplFfpbq-6YKP_lVKnLyi0z-hywO1Y3eceMSxDFK43hgBz6pqdiZKXWc9EHTh01j.jpeg?fit=1149%2C939&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1KjO","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":416804,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416804","url_meta":{"origin":416380,"position":0},"title":"Canada Summer Temperature Trends, 1900-2023: Part Deux","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The following figure shows the daily high (Tmax) and low (Tmin) summer (June-July-August) temperature trends, 1900-2023, for the 6 provinces from which I analyzed data. The other provinces have very few stations by comparison to these six.","rel":"","context":"In \"Canada\"","block_context":{"text":"Canada","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canada"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Canada-map-revised-Tmax-Tmin-trends-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C831&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Canada-map-revised-Tmax-Tmin-trends-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C831&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Canada-map-revised-Tmax-Tmin-trends-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C831&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Canada-map-revised-Tmax-Tmin-trends-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C831&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Canada-map-revised-Tmax-Tmin-trends-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C831&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416006,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416006","url_meta":{"origin":416380,"position":1},"title":"Canada Summer Daily High Temperature Trends, 1900-2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Given media reports, it is likely that most Canadians think they have been experiencing unprecedented summer warmth in the last couple of decades. But this isn\u2019t true.","rel":"","context":"In \"extreme heatwave\"","block_context":{"text":"extreme heatwave","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=extreme-heatwave"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQNQGwrwtEn_Y_DleGLB7YbKMO7qPYJAAXaCkDkbTWd4wN0jUuOuBZya5g0-xOXDHFjNolHWs45V22ppa_ICoEDzKUtthC5eFlGsJhM7e3KoWeLIJ_XwhNI0a-11tQ-q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQNQGwrwtEn_Y_DleGLB7YbKMO7qPYJAAXaCkDkbTWd4wN0jUuOuBZya5g0-xOXDHFjNolHWs45V22ppa_ICoEDzKUtthC5eFlGsJhM7e3KoWeLIJ_XwhNI0a-11tQ-q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQNQGwrwtEn_Y_DleGLB7YbKMO7qPYJAAXaCkDkbTWd4wN0jUuOuBZya5g0-xOXDHFjNolHWs45V22ppa_ICoEDzKUtthC5eFlGsJhM7e3KoWeLIJ_XwhNI0a-11tQ-q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQNQGwrwtEn_Y_DleGLB7YbKMO7qPYJAAXaCkDkbTWd4wN0jUuOuBZya5g0-xOXDHFjNolHWs45V22ppa_ICoEDzKUtthC5eFlGsJhM7e3KoWeLIJ_XwhNI0a-11tQ-q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0AQNQGwrwtEn_Y_DleGLB7YbKMO7qPYJAAXaCkDkbTWd4wN0jUuOuBZya5g0-xOXDHFjNolHWs45V22ppa_ICoEDzKUtthC5eFlGsJhM7e3KoWeLIJ_XwhNI0a-11tQ-q-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C793&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":345437,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=345437","url_meta":{"origin":416380,"position":2},"title":"NOAA\u2019s U.S. Temperature Data Demonstrate that Population Growth UHIs & Measurement Inadequacies Drive Tavg Increasing Outcomes \u2013 Not Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA\u2019s U.S. contiguous U.S. summer (June through August) measured minimum and maximum temperatures trends over the period 1895 through 2024 (shown below from NOAA\u2019s Climate at a Glance Times series data website) show clear and distinct differing temperature trend increasing growth compared to the calculated average temperature trend outcome.","rel":"","context":"In \"NOAA\"","block_context":{"text":"NOAA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=noaa"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Urban-Heat-Island-Effect-A162104504.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Urban-Heat-Island-Effect-A162104504.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Urban-Heat-Island-Effect-A162104504.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Urban-Heat-Island-Effect-A162104504.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Urban-Heat-Island-Effect-A162104504.jpg?fit=1200%2C638&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":399560,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=399560","url_meta":{"origin":416380,"position":3},"title":"The Hottest Summer Days in D.C. 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