{"id":415590,"date":"2025-12-01T18:14:10","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T17:14:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=415590"},"modified":"2025-12-01T18:14:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T17:14:12","slug":"la-nina-strengthens-what-are-the-implications-for-this-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=415590","title":{"rendered":"La Nina Strengthens: What are the Implications for this Winter?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Map<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a, associated with cool water over the tropical Pacific, has a significant impact on Northwest weather, influencing temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As described below, La Ni\u00f1a has strengthened recently, and some decidedly La Ni\u00f1a weather is now in the forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As noted in previous blogs, La Ni\u00f1a is associated with cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures over the central tropical Pacific, known as the Nino 3.4 area (see below)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Map<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

According to the latest observations, we are about to transition from a weak to a moderate La Ni\u00f1a (see figure below).   This figure shows the difference from normal of the temperatures in the Nino 3.4 area, with blue colors indicating below-normal temperatures.   A moderate La Nina <\/em>is associated with a cool temperature anomaly larger than .9C.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are now crossing this threshold to moderate La Ni\u00f1a conditions (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The recent NOAA El Nino\/La Ni\u00f1a forecast indicates continued La Ni\u00f1a conditions into mid-winter.\u00a0 If anything, it’s erring on the warm side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a winters tend to be associated with an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and associated cold northerly flow over the Northwest (see below).  La Ni\u00f1a winters tend to be cooler than normal over the Northwest, generally with more snow than typical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Occasionally, the jet stream breaks through underneath the ridge with a strong cyclone\/wind event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Map<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, let’s look ahead over the next week or so, considering forecast models’ predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecast of the upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) heights\/pressures for Saturday afternoon shows a big ridge offshore and northwesterly flow over Washington.  Classic La Ni\u00f1a pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Weather<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday morning?\u00a0 \u00a0 Very similar.\u00a0 La Ni\u00f1a upper air pattern<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Weather<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With a La Ni\u00f1a pattern with northerly flow from Alaska in place, temperatures should be a bit colder than normal over the Northwest, as illustrated by the forecast temperatures at SeaTac over the next few days.\u00a0 Normal is around 50F…. predicted temperatures are several degrees cooler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The forecast surface (2-m above the ground) temperatures on Sunday at 7 AM indicate that much of the state will be below freezing, with most of the Cascades and eastern Washington in the 20s. (see below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below-freezing temperatures will also occur over the eastern part of Puget Sound country.    Keep in mind that temperatures could be even cooler at the surface.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So be ready for the first frost of the season!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Weather<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The latest forecast of temperature (actually the difference of temperature from normal) from the highly skillful European Center extended forecasting system through January 13th, suggests colder than normal temperatures for the next month and a half.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Temperature<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And the latest NOAA seasonal outlook is for cooler-than-normal conditions over Washington State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Get your skis ready!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Seasonal<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La Ni\u00f1a, associated with cool water over the tropical Pacific, has a significant impact on Northwest weather, influencing temperature, precipitation, and snowfall.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":415607,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how La Ni\u00f1a influences Northwest weather patterns, bringing cooler temperatures and increased snowfall this winter.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"La Ni\u00f1a Weather Patterns: Impacts on Northwest Forecasts","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMlwvMDBTY3JlZW5zaG90LTIwMjUtMTItMDEtMTgxMzA2LTEwMjR4NTc0LnBuZyIsInR4dCI6IkxhIE5pbmEgU3RyZW5ndGhlbnM6IFdoYXQgYXJlIHRoZSBJbXBsaWNhdGlvbnMgZm9yIHRoaXMgV2ludGVyPyIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.oAQbGMuAlvwb5cijtBDvQVGtEgvVrQVGoKWAu8OSSJYMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834338,691818825,691839924,691839925],"class_list":{"0":"post-415590","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-enso-el-nino-southern-oscillation","9":"tag-la-nina-2","10":"tag-la-nina-weather","11":"tag-noaa-el-nino-la-nina-forecast","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/00Screenshot-2025-12-01-181306.png?fit=1545%2C866&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1K74","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":300570,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300570","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":0},"title":"No, Los Angeles Times, Climate Change Is Not \u2018Supercharging\u2019 the Latest Winter Storm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"An article in the\u00a0Los Angeles Times\u00a0(LAT) by\u00a0Hayley Smith\u00a0and\u00a0Grace Toohey, titled \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o and climate change are supercharging incoming storm, SoCal\u2019s biggest this winter,\u201d\u00a0falsely claims the present storm is being caused or exacerbated by climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"California\"","block_context":{"text":"California","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=california"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00HD-Weather-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294461,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294461","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":1},"title":"How Grifters for Research Funding Weaponize Natural Weather into CO2 Climate Extremes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As an ecologist studying ecosystem resilience, I quickly knew I must understand how ocean circulation altered weather patterns affecting California snowfall, floods, and droughts. Large weather variations are driven by yearly variations in natural El Ninos and La Ninas and 20\u201330-year variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Alarmists\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Alarmists","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmists"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0GDbqQEWa4AAQFHV.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0GDbqQEWa4AAQFHV.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0GDbqQEWa4AAQFHV.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0GDbqQEWa4AAQFHV.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0GDbqQEWa4AAQFHV.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1023&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":439097,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439097","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":2},"title":"Is a Super El Nino Coming?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Forecasts are probabilistic, so plan for a range of outcomes rather than betting on the most dramatic scenario.","rel":"","context":"In \"dynamical models\"","block_context":{"text":"dynamical models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dynamical-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":378776,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378776","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":3},"title":"The Atmosphere is Now in Neutral","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino\/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.","rel":"","context":"In \"El Nino\/La Nina\"","block_context":{"text":"El Nino\/La Nina","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-la-nina-3"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186854,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186854","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":4},"title":"La Nina Conditions Continue Across the Equatorial Pacific","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Sea surface temperatures continue to run at colder-than-normal levels (shown in blue) in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean and La Nina is likely to last into at least the beginning part of the upcoming summer season. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com Paul Dorian Sea surface temperatures continue to run\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0image-21.png?fit=975%2C488&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303496,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303496","url_meta":{"origin":415590,"position":5},"title":"The Coming Collapse Of El Nino and The Ramifications on The Atlantic Basin Tropical Season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions (colder-than-normal) by the early part of the 2024 summer season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic Basin\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic Basin","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-basin"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=415590"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":415609,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/415590\/revisions\/415609"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/415607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=415590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=415590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=415590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}