{"id":414218,"date":"2025-11-22T11:59:31","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T10:59:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414218"},"modified":"2025-11-22T11:59:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T10:59:34","slug":"captain-scotts-1912-antarctic-tragedy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414218","title":{"rendered":"Captain Scott\u2019s 1912 Antarctic tragedy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Etc.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Mila Zinkova<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reassessing The Coldest March<\/em> by Susan Solomon<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Thursday, 29 March 1912, Captain Scott (1914) made the final entry in his Journal. He wrote: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the 21st we have had a continuous gale from W.S.W. and S.W. We had fuel to make two cups of tea apiece and bare food for two days on the 20th. Every day we have been ready to start for our depot 11 miles away, but outside the door of the tent it remains a scene of whirling drift. I do not think we can hope for any better things now. We shall stick it out to the end, but we are getting weaker, of course, and the end cannot be far.

It seems a pity, but I do not think I can write more.

R. SCOTT.

For God\u2019s sake look after our people<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A little over two months earlier (17 January 1912), Captain Scott and his companions arrived at the South Pole only to discover that the Norwegians were there first. The Norwegian party led by Roald Amundsen reached the South Pole on 14 December 1911. Extremely disappointed, Scott and his men began their return crossing on 19 January 1912.  It was a sad journey. They encountered unusually cold temperatures during March (Scott, 1914; Solomon, 2002). Two members of Scott\u2019s polar party, Edgar Evans and Captain Lawrence Oates, perished before the party camped for the last time<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 19 March 1912, Scott and two remaining members of the Polar Party (Doctor Edward Adrian Wilson and Henry Robertson Bowers) had been unable to resume their march due to a persisting blizzard. They were only 11 miles (less than 18 km) from the One Ton Depot that had a fresh supply of food and fuel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This Final Blizzard became a matter of controversy nearly a century later. Every so often, a scientific claim becomes so widely repeated that it hardens into \u201cfact,\u201d even when the evidence beneath it consists of\u2026 well\u2026 let\u2019s just call it creative meteorology<\/em>. Such is the case with the final blizzard in Captain Scott\u2019s 1912 Antarctic tragedy. Many writers before and after Solomon published her book have claimed that Scott was dishonest or fabricated the weather, but none of them were prominent atmospheric scientists who actually worked in Antarctica. That is precisely why Solomon\u2019s assertions carried unusual weight\u2014and why their scientific flaws matter even more<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Coldest March<\/em>, Susan Solomon famously concludes that such a storm was \u201cvirtually impossible.\u201d She writes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wilson and Bowers met their deaths with the injured Scott, but the scientific constraints of modern meteorology as shown here suggest that their deaths may have been a matter of choice rather than chance. Whether such a choice was made, and whether it reflected their own dedication or an order by a desperate Scott vainly attempting to save legacies rather than lives is a question not for science but for the human heart<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This allegation has been widely echoed in popular media. Coverage in The New York Times (Chang, 2001), The Guardian (Glancey, 2001), and the Los Angeles Times (Hotz, 2001), all repeated the quote about \u201ca desperate Scott vainly attempting to save legacies rather than lives\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s the problem: the science doesn\u2019t agree. Not modern satellite imagery, not historical data, not even the meteorological literature available before the book was published.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zinkova (2025) has shown that the blizzard unfolded much as Scott described. Building on that foundation, this post turns to Solomon\u2019s claims, focusing on the evidence that was overlooked or misinterpreted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corner Camp: The New Oracle of Truth?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of Solomon\u2019s central arguments rests on the assumption that if Corner Camp didn\u2019t have a blizzard, then Scott\u2019s Last Camp couldn\u2019t have had one either. To prove the claim, Solomon (2002 p. 318) presents Figure 68, captioned as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Figure 68. Winds observed at the automated weather station near Last Camp and near Corner Camp (stations 4 and 3, respectively; see map 2) in March 1998. Note that the winds at the two locations closely track each other. The similarities shown have been observed in every strong March blizzard measured on the Barrier in the automated record (since 1984).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

To evaluate this claim, I examined AWS data for March 1996\u2014well within the 15-year period Solomon cites (1984\u20131998). As the graph below shows, the winds at the two sites do not<\/strong> track each other at all in this particular situation. In fact, the graph shows that on March 18, 19, 1996, during a strong blizzard at Scott\u2019s Last Camp, Corner Camp remains nearly calm. And this isn\u2019t an isolated anomaly: several similar cases appear in that same month alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the central premise of Solomon\u2019s argument\u2014\u201cno storm at Corner Camp = Scott must have exaggerated\u201d\u2014collapses immediately when actual data are examined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Case of the Selectively Quoted Explorer<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the book, Solomon (2002, p. 311) cites a story from Cherry-Garrard\u2019s The Worst Journey in the World<\/em>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ferocious wind that spirited away the tent of the Cape Crozier party and threatened the survival of Wilson, Bowers, and Cherry-Garrard in July 1911 was a textbook example of a katabatic blizzard. It blew with hurricane force at more<\/em> than seventy miles per hour, but the trio survived the storm in large part because it subsided in less than forty-eight hours, when the reservoir of cold air was emptied<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in the same paragraph where Cherry-Garrard recounts his own blizzard experience, he also refers to the accounts of others, noting that \u201cparties which had come to Cape Crozier in the spring had experienced blizzards which lasted eight or ten days\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I knew that parties which had come to Cape Crozier in the spring had experienced blizzards which lasted eight or ten days. <\/em>(Cherry-Garrard ,1922 p. 282)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The omission of the \u201ceight or ten days\u201d blizzards in Solomon (2002) is puzzling. Not at the same page but in the same book, Cherry-Garrard (1922 p. 446) describes yet another blizzard. It was an eight days long blizzard at Cape Evans:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis blizzard lasted for eight days , up till then the longest blizzard we had experienced <\/em>[at Cape Evans]: \u201d It died as it had lived , blowing hard to the last , averaging 68 miles an hour from the south , and then 56 miles an hour from the north finally back to the south , and so to calm.<\/em>\u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This record was not obscure. It was not lost. It was simply\u2026 not used. An eight-day blizzard at Cape Evans could easily have stretched to ten days or longer at Scott\u2019s Last Camp. The reason is that barrier blizzards strike Cape Evans and the Last Camp simultaneously (Zinkova 2025). Yet when a barrier blizzard subsides, a katabatic blizzard often follows at the Last Camp (but not at Cape Evans), prolonging the storm\u2019s impact (Zinkova, 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Decade Later<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One might hope that, with time, the scientific errors in The Coldest March<\/em> would fade away quietly. Instead, ten years after the book\u2019s publication, Solomon (2012) repeated the same arguments in a public presentation\u2014now with an additional meteorological flourish. While responding to questions (Solomon, 2012) declared:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conditions on the barrier are pretty strongly katabatic. I mean, when you have this kind of blizzard, that\u2019s normally what you\u2019re getting, because you\u2019re shielded so well from cyclones moving in from the, from the coast. So it\u2019s a very different kind of meteorology. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The conditions on the Ross Ice Shelf are not strongly katabatic at all, and in the region of Scott\u2019s Last Camp, virtually every blizzard\u2014katabatic, barrier, or cyclonic\u2014is driven by synoptic-scale cyclones or mesoscale cyclonic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unclear how this \u201cshielded from cyclones\u201d allegation came about because in her own book, Solomon (2002 p.350) cited the paper by Bromwich and Carrasco titled: Cyclonically<\/em><\/strong> forced barrier winds along the Transantarctic mountains near Ross Island<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To claim that the Ross Ice Shelf contradicts the very mechanisms that produce the winds Solomon attempted to analyze. In short, a decade later, the misunderstanding wasn\u2019t corrected.
It was amplified.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The satellite perspective<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If anyone still doubts how easily Solomon\u2019s interpretation can be disproved, consider this: a single<\/em> infrared satellite image is enough to show why her core assumption\u2014that Corner Camp and Scott\u2019s Last Camp always experience storms together\u2014is scientifically untenable. Below is one example (April 15, 2018)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Satellite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In this infrared frame, a katabatic blizzard is clearly pouring down from the plateau onto the Ross Ice Shelf, slamming directly into the region of Scott\u2019s Last Camp (S). Meanwhile Corner Camp is calm and quiet. This kind of decoupling is routine, not exceptional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And why does the katabatic flow show up in infrared? Because descending katabatic air warms adiabatically, <\/strong>producing a <\/strong>warmer signature on IR imagery compared to the frigid surface beneath it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What else do we see in this very same image? A well-defined cyclone over the Ross Ice Shelf driving the synoptic setup. Without this cyclone katabatic winds would not have been able to reach the area of Scott\u2019s Last Camp because they need pressure gradients to traverse the Ross Ice Shelf.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I looked at hundreds of infrared satellite images to learn about every possible situation at the Ross Ice Shelf. On the other hand, Solomon (2002, 2012) relied on a single infrared satellite image\u2014Figure 65 (Solomon, 2002, p.312)\u2014as the basis for her broad meteorological conclusions and her remarkable speculation that Scott may have ordered Wilson and Bowers to die. Apparently drawing her conclusion from a single satellite image, Solomon (2002, p.\u202f317) stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe two locations <\/em>[Scott\u2019s Last Camp and Corner Cam] are inextricably linked by the basic physics of fluid flow: the southerly wind from the Barrier has no option but to continue on its course until it passes Corner Camp <\/em>[\u2026] \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet even this lone satellite image reveals a cyclone, which Solomon seems not to have recognized at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solomon\u2019s misunderstanding of katabatic winds hadn\u2019t shifted even a decade later. In 2012, she told her audience that the Ross Ice Shelf is essentially a flat barrier, and that the wind can only follow the flow because there\u2019s nothing out there to break it up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solomon (2002, p. 310) quoted Captain Scott\u2019s Message to the Public<\/em>, where he rather plainly described \u201ca continuous gale from W.S.W. and S.W.<\/em>\u201d? That wind direction points to a katabatic flow spilling from Byrd Glacier (Seefeldt et al., 2007).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And, more importantly, a wind coming from W.S.W. or S.W. at Scott\u2019s Last Camp would not detour to Corner Camp, which sits almost directly south. In actuality, the direction and speed of katabatic winds are as variable as the weather systems that drive them, enabling them to traverse long distances across the Ross Ice Shelf. For example, the image below shows a situation in which neither of the two marked locations experienced a katabatic blizzard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Satellite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The following image indicates that Scott\u2019s Last Camp was struck by a katabatic blizzard, while Corner Camp remained calm. Notice the cyclone<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Infrared<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Solomon\u2019s book did not reference several highly relevant papers on the Ross Ice Shelf airstream. For example, an article by Bromwich, Carrasco et al. (1993), in which the authors described a katabatic wind surge in July 1988 and specifically stated that every site recorded stronger-than-monthly-average winds\u2026 except Corner Camp, which apparently opted out of the excitement. Corner Camp (AWS 07 in their article) was the only place that \u201cdid not record stronger wind than its monthly average<\/em>\u201d (Bromwich, Carrasco et al.,1993).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In summary, this cascade of methodological failures in Solomon (2002) ultimately crystallized into a global media narrative that tarred the reputation of Captain Scott.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those interested in what actually happened\u2014and why the Final Blizzard likely transpired the way Captain Scott described it\u2014my peer-reviewed analysis is available [here<\/a>]. See also my Youtube [video<\/a>.] Both explain in detail what the satellite data, the reanalysis, and the historical records actually show\u2014namely, that the March 1912 storm was a straightforward product of synoptic-scale cyclonicic activity<\/p>\n\n\n\n

References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bromwich, D. H., Carrasco, J. F., Liu, Z., & Tzeng, R.-Y. (1993). Hemispheric atmospheric variations and oceanographic impacts associated with katabatic surges across the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres<\/em>, 98<\/em>(D7), 13045\u201313062. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/93JD00879<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chang K. 2001. How Bad Luck Tipped the Scales to Disaster. New York Times. <\/em>https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2001\/08\/28\/science\/how-bad-luck-tipped-the-scales-to-disaster.html<\/a>. (accessed on 20 August 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cherry-Garrard, A. (1922) The Worst Journey in the World, Antarctic, 1910-1913. Constable and Company Limited<\/em><\/em><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Glancey, J. (2001). We could be heroes. The Guardian<\/em>. https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/books\/2001\/nov\/10\/historybooks.highereducation1<\/a> (accessed 20 August 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hotz, R. L. (2001). Did Robert Falcon Scott tell the truth? Los Angeles Times<\/em>. https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/archives\/la-xpm-2001-dec-23-bk-hotz23-story.html<\/a> (accessed 20 August 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scott R. F. (1914).Scott\u2019s Last Expedition. Smith, Elder and Company, London.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seefeldt M.W., Cassano J.J., and Parish T. R.<\/strong> (2007). Dominant Regimes of the Ross Ice Shelf Surface Wind Field during Austral Autumn 2005. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.<\/em>, 46<\/strong>: 1933\u20131955, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/2007JAMC1442.1<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solomon, S. (2002). The Coldest March: Scott\u2019s Fatal Antarctic Expedition<\/em>. Yale University Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Solomon, S. (2012). The Coldest March: Scott\u2019s Fatal Antarctic Expedition<\/em>. https:\/\/youtu.be\/5LoWsLqcizA<\/a> (accessed 10 January 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zinkova, M. (2025). An exceptional March 1912 blizzard (the Final Blizzard) that sealed the fate of Captain Scott and his party. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research<\/em>, 57<\/em>(1), 2522490. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/15230430.2025.2522490<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A little over two months earlier (17 January 1912), Captain Scott and his companions arrived at the South Pole only to discover that the Norwegians were there first. The Norwegian party led by Roald Amundsen reached the South Pole on 14 December 1911. Extremely disappointed, Scott and his men began their return crossing on 19 January 1912.\u00a0 It was a sad journey. They encountered unusually cold temperatures during March (Scott, 1914; Solomon, 2002). Two members of Scott\u2019s polar party, Edgar Evans and Captain Lawrence Oates, perished before the party camped for the last time<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":414226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the truth behind Captain Scott's 1912 Antarctic tragedy and the blizzard that sealed his fate in this detailed analysis.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Reexamining Scott's 1912 Antarctic Tragedy and Final Blizzard","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMVwvMEFRTkI3aHptRUx3Zk5kUkJtSmJMTjJfUlZ6enZhNHFjLXhRSWU1dnUxZGx2TWlwYlFBNmRZTmxhR1R0V3RpVWluVFpiQU94QkJWSW1jbzBMLWFWOHhpY1pWVk93WEZJTHRVYjFJeEhFWlMtZmVGQUQ2MTdMRUtVMzc0alUzb0VLLTEtMTAyNHg2NjguanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IkNhcHRhaW4gU2NvdHRcdTIwMTlzIDE5MTIgQW50YXJjdGljIHRyYWdlZHkiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.o8fvO6uwsIGuJfiMkpbiSmeMN2F-wKbE8QeL7Ntw6rkMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691839763,691839764,691839762,691839761,691819357,691828269,691839765],"class_list":{"0":"post-414218","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-antarctic-tragedy","9":"tag-captain-robert-falcon-scott","10":"tag-final-blizzard","11":"tag-polar-party-doctor-edward-adrian-wilson-and-henry-robertson-bowers","12":"tag-ross-ice-shelf","13":"tag-south-pole","14":"tag-susan-solomon","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNB7hzmELwfNdRBmJbLN2_RVzzva4qc-xQIe5vu1dlvMipbQA6dYNlaGTtWtiUinTZbAOxBBVImco0L-aV8xicZVVOwXFILtUb1IxHEZS-feFAD617LEKU374jU3oEK-1.jpeg?fit=1490%2C972&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1JKW","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":423104,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423104","url_meta":{"origin":414218,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Polar Colding\u2026Antarctica Saw Its Coldest October in 44 Years!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"On October 15, 2025, the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station (the U.S. research base at the geographic South Pole) recorded a temperature of -61.3\u00b0C (-81.34\u00b0F) at around 07:00 local time. 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