{"id":413939,"date":"2025-11-19T18:35:27","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T17:35:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413939"},"modified":"2025-11-19T18:35:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T17:35:30","slug":"ocean-rises-science-sinks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413939","title":{"rendered":"Ocean Rises, Science Sinks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by<\/em><\/strong> Willis Eschenbach<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ever wondered how a tiny rise in sea level\u2014let\u2019s say, the aquatic equivalent of topping up your birdbath\u2014might be responsible for frigid winters rampaging through East Asia? No? Well, Nature Communications thinks you should, in an article yclept \u201cIntensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise<\/a>\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s their premise, as bold as a flashing warning sign on your grandma\u2019s thermostat: A global mean sea-level rise of 15\u201330 cm can intensify extreme cold events in East Asia, thanks to a retooled atmospheric circulatory engine, weakening westerlies, and powered-up blocking episodes<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mind you, this is not about that old chestnut, Arctic amplification or vanishing sea ice; it\u2019s the earth-modeling equivalent of arguing that rearranging the living room somehow makes next winter\u2019s snow deeper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, how did we get here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I did what any skeptical denizen of the scientific peanut gallery would do: pondered their use of the NorESM1-F Earth System Model, the chosen oracle of this saga. Picture it\u2014a whopping 2200-year sensitivity experiment, climate dials set to \u201ccontrolled conditions\u201d (CO\u2082 steady at 400 ppm, as if the atmosphere were on cruise control). The researchers periodically poured another cupful into the global ocean, then waited to see if the weather started shivering in East Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their definition of \u201ccold extreme\u201d? Days below the 10th percentile surface air temperature. Their measure of blocking? A reversal index for 500 hPa geopotential height (if that sounds like NASA-jargon, it is\u2014think traffic jams in the jet stream).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transparency, you say? Sure, you can sift through their supplementary files and simulated archive in the EU\u2019s Zenodo repository\u2014model outputs in glorious bulk if you\u2019re inclined to lose weeks in NetCDF purgatory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But empirical data? Not a sausage. Not one single lonely observation. No time series to ground these flights of model fancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s hit pause for a moment and return to ugly reality. Does historical sea-level rise correlate with nasty winter chills in East Asia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not per the record: since 1900, global sea level crept up around 20 cm, but there\u2019s no independent demonstration that this correlated with actual<\/em> cold extremes in the region. In fact, most climate analyses emphasize local, not global, fingerprints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So here\u2019s my summary of my critique of the study, in three acts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Single Model Dependency<\/strong>
The findings are entirely shackled to NorESM1-F\u2014a ponderous climate engine whose output is only as good as its assumptions. There\u2019s no check against real-world circulation, no multi-model brawl for robustness. It\u2019s as if we rated steak quality by asking only one vegetarian chef.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Plausibility\u2014Or The Lack Thereof<\/strong>
A the end of the last glaciation, sea levels rose by on the order of 120 meters (12,000 cm). Is it physically plausible that nudging the average sea level upward by a mere twenty centimeters will scramble global-scale atmospheric machinery? As someone who enjoys a good weather metaphor, I say: that\u2019s like expecting the Second Law of Thermodynamics to take requests from the audience.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
post-glacial_sea_level.png<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

And then there\u2019s blocking dynamics. In the real world? Much larger effects emerge from Arctic warming and sea ice loss than from sea-level twitchiness. Moreover, the study does not exclude<\/em> confounders like SST changes, sea ice variability, or those slow-moving decadal ocean cycles that usually run this show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Where Are the Comparisons To Reality?<\/strong>
A single climate model struts across the stage, unopposed. No ERA-Interim, no NCEP\/NCAR, no HadCRUT temperature data, no observational counterpoint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s talk logic. The paper\u2019s \u201cnonlinear\u201d threshold\u2014cold events only spring loose above a 0.625m sea-level scenario\u2014seems arbitrary, and it\u2019s totally unsupported by observational reality. Real-world cold spikes in East Asia have been diagnosed as the products of Arctic heat, sea ice droughts, and the peculiar ballet of oceanic cycles, not bathtub-level adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No primary source\u2014none\u2014shows that sub-meter global mean sea-level rise is a puppetmaster for blocking frequency or icy East Asian blasts. All such claims hitch their wagon to untested numerical projections, idealized boundary conditions, and a climate model\u2019s fever dreams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The logic that a shallow sea-level rise reorganizes planetary wind and weather systems?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dramatic pause \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No. Just no.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what does this mean?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re poised to rewrite winter preparedness handbooks based on sea-level forecasts, put that pen down. The dominant factors in real-world cold extremes\u2014Arctic temperature, sea ice, ocean temperatures\u2014remain unaffected by the aquatic inchworm pace of mean sea-level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

A final thought. Sea level has gone up about 20 cm in the last 125 years. If the cold weather only starts with an additional 62.5 cm of sea level rise, that means it will begin in \u2026 divide by pi, carry the 3 \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 the year 2415.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be very afraid \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always in science, I\u2019m open to correction\u2014if someone drags an empirical time series from the basement that links 20 cm of GMSL with bitter Februarys in Beijing, I\u2019ll eat my galoshes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But for now? File this under \u201cClimate Mythmaking: The Model Show.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You Know The Drill: When you comment, quote the exact words you\u2019re discussing. I can\u2019t defend your interpretation of what I write.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ever wondered how a tiny rise in sea level\u2014let\u2019s say, the aquatic equivalent of topping up your birdbath\u2014might be responsible for frigid winters rampaging through East Asia? No? Well, Nature Communications thinks you should, in an article yclept \u201cIntensification of extreme cold events in East Asia in response to global mean sea-level rise\u201c.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":413944,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how a minor sea-level rise could supposedly trigger extreme cold events in East Asia, challenging established climate science.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"How Sea Level Rise Impacts Extreme Cold in East Asia","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMVwvQVFPXzk4cXdHVVVsMWhKeHBqd0JPT2JSZEVTLWc3T0hxM25WRXdybzZsWXRNWVNnTUR6QzgxVHBPSXc4TG9YRXU2dkI1NGdLbDdkaVNaYk9Lb21SX0gzYUVUQlFtSUk2dzhVN2JEelpjY2Z0anRDNjNmbXR0emYtWDdBZmI0VzZuMHFyQjNDWkg1VjJKT1NRQWIyenJLX2pJVjFOLTEwMjR4MTAyNC5qcGVnIiwidHh0IjoiT2NlYW4gUmlzZXMsIFNjaWVuY2UgU2lua3MiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.ZDXNCT5lACj-rO7yR6N60u5x-mYtnoMfl7fp8ZYNQQ4MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818153,691839738,691839737,691820093,691833713],"class_list":{"0":"post-413939","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-models","9":"tag-climate-mythmaking","10":"tag-global-ocean","11":"tag-sea-level","12":"tag-second-law-of-thermodynamics","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQO_98qwGUUl1hJxpjwBOObRdES-g7OHq3nVEwro6lYtMYSgMDzC81TpOIw8LoXEu6vB54gKl7diSZbOKomR_H3aETBQmII6w8U7bDzZccftjtC63fmttzf-X7Afb4W6n0qrB3CZH5V2JOSQAb2zrK_jIV1N.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1JGr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":413525,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413525","url_meta":{"origin":413939,"position":0},"title":"When Climate Modeling Becomes Climate Mythmaking: \u201cSea-Level Rise Causes More Cold Snaps\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The modern climate discourse is full of surprises, but every so often a publication appears that manages to outdo even the most ambitious attempts at connecting loosely related climate variables. 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Nonsense. A new, first-ever global study of real-world data, not models, finds no evidence climate change accelerated sea level rise. 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