{"id":413878,"date":"2025-11-19T09:10:20","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:10:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413878"},"modified":"2025-11-19T09:10:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T08:10:22","slug":"an-ice-age-may-come-new-york-post-but-if-it-does-ocean-current-collapse-wont-be-the-cause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413878","title":{"rendered":"An Ice Age May Come, New York Post, But If It Does, Ocean Current Collapse Won\u2019t Be the Cause"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"422\" data-attachment-id=\"413883\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=413883\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?fit=1705%2C996&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1705,996\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C422&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=723%2C422&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Four-panel image of a cityscape covered in snow, showing buildings under various lighting conditions, resembling a frozen landscape with tall skyscrapers and snowdrifts.\" class=\"wp-image-413883\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=1024%2C598&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=300%2C175&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=768%2C449&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=1536%2C897&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=640%2C374&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?resize=1200%2C701&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?w=1705&amp;ssl=1 1705w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/climaterealism.com\/2025\/11\/an-ice-age-may-come-new-york-post-but-if-it-does-ocean-current-collapse-wont-be-the-cause\/\">ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/climaterealism.com\/author\/sburnett\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">H. Sterling Burnett<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"413879\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=413879\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?fit=1280%2C853&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,853\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A large ice iceberg rises dramatically from the ocean, showcasing textured ice formations and a gray sky in the background.\" class=\"wp-image-413879\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=1024%2C682&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-338.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;<em>New York Post<\/em>&nbsp;(NYP) covered a recent study that claims the \u201cGulf Stream\u201d could soon collapse due to human caused climate change. Scientifically, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed and sped up on its own due to physical factors that humans have no control over, but it has never before caused a major ice age, although its slowing has cooled regions on the order of years and decades. As importantly, the study cited by the NYP is disputed by other studies published in peer-reviewed journals over the past year and decade that come to the opposite conclusion, that the AMOC has sped up or has neither increased nor decreased in strength or speed during the period of recent warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The NYP story, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/11\/12\/science\/gulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse \u2014 predicting a new ice age<\/a>,\u201d is couched in uncertainty, as is appropriate to the topic. Climate scientists claiming something doesn\u2019t make it true, especially when other scientists claim the Gulf Stream isn\u2019t changing much or is speeding up. At least the headline read \u201ccould\u201d be near collapse. Could is very vague. A lot of things, both disastrous and beneficial for life on Earth, could happen in the days, weeks, years, and decades ahead, but that doesn\u2019t mean they are likely and that society should spend precious time and resources worrying about them. Studying those that are likely, yes; completely transforming our lives and economic systems on the off chance that it might modestly impact something as vast and poorly understood as the Gulf Stream, no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Parsing the claims made in the NYP and the study, one finds many problematic, disputed, and some easily falsified claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per the new findings, the at-risk current in question is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a \u201cconveyor belt of the ocean\u201d that funnels warm water toward the ocean surface from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This current, which includes the Gulf Stream that runs from the Gulf of Mexico to the US East Coast and across the Atlantic to Europe, helps maintain the mild climate of Europe, the UK and the US East Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study stated that the source of this marine temperature regulator, the Greenland Ice sheet, is being thawed amid warming temperatures, causing meltwater runoff to leach into the North Atlantic \u2014 leading to stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This has resulted in a \u201cdistinctive temperature fingerprint\u201d located some 3,280 to 6,560 feet below the ocean\u2019s surface, according to reporting by the Daily Mail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cHere we identify a distinctive temperature fingerprint in the equatorial Atlantic that signals the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change,\u201d the authors wrote. \u201cThe robust physical mechanism and reliable detection make [this fingerprint] a valuable metric for AMOC monitoring in a warming climate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The presence of the marine hot pocket appears to suggest that the current slowdown has been occurring for decades and could foment a total decline before the end of the century, per the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, we have only been able to study the AMOC for a few decades, and there are no good proxies for its historic behavior before we began direct, somewhat precise observations. This means that what these scientists have measured may or may not be unusual across years, decades, centuries, or millennia. The researchers involved aren\u2019t measuring the AMOC directly. Rather, they discovered a \u201chot pocket\u201d deep beneath the ocean that they consider to be a proxy for a \u201cdistinctive temperature fingerprint\u201d or \u201cvaluable metric\u201d for changes in the AMOC. But, of course, the discovery of this hot pocket or metric is even more recent than the study of the AMOC itself. The researchers can\u2019t know how long it has been around, whether it has grown or shrunk from past extent, or truly what its existence indicates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A better indicator of the AMOC would be to measure the speed of the current directly, both along its entire track, and in its distinct segments. Other scientists have done this in recent years and months and, as discussed at&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/climaterealism.com\/category\/climate-change-impacts\/ocean-currents\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Climate Realism<\/a><\/em>, have concluded the AMOC is either stable or speeding up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Studies published in the prominent peer-reviewed journal&nbsp;<em>Science<\/em>&nbsp;in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/global-warming-speeding-earth-s-massive-ocean-currents#:~:text=A%20new%20paper%20in%20*Science%20Advances*%20concludes,combined%20five%20different%20reanalyses%20of%20ocean%20circulation.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2020<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/content\/article\/global-warming-speeding-ocean-currents-here-s-why\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2022<\/a>&nbsp;both report that the AMOC has sped up in recent decades, rather than slowed down. Two peer-reviewed studies in the journal&nbsp;<em>Nature<\/em>, one in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-024-08544-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">February 2025<\/a>&nbsp;and one in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-024-55297-5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">January 2025<\/a>, found that the AMOC has remained stable for at least 60 years, displaying no significant slowing trend. The researchers who undertook those studies found no credible evidence to suggest that a collapse is imminent or even likely in the foreseeable future. Commenting on the climate models that have forecast a collapse of the AMOC, the scientists carrying out the research concluded that climate models are flawed and overstate the risks. Since these studies didn\u2019t play into the narrative that humans are causing dangerous climate change that was disrupting the Gulf Stream and the AMOC, they received minimal media coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is true of taking climate model simulations as accurate representations of the AMOC is equally true of treating a recently discovered hot blob in the ocean as proxy for a waning AMOC when direct measurement of the phenomenon is available. Neither is justified scientifically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, both the claimed cause of the AMOC decline and the predicted impacts on sea levels are simply wrong. As discussed at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/climateataglance.com\/climate-at-a-glance-greenland-ice-melt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Climate at a Glance: Greenland Ice Melt<\/em><\/a>, while many headlines have blared in recent years that Greenland is melting unusually rapidly, the melting and thawing are normal for Greenland each year, and most of the ice that melted in Greenland never reached the sea. It just refroze. (See the figure, below for Greenland\u2019s relative ice loss).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"411\" data-attachment-id=\"413881\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=413881\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?fit=900%2C512&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"900,512\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?fit=723%2C411&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?resize=723%2C411&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph comparing the magnified ice loss of Greenland since 1980 to the total changes in Greenland ice mass, illustrating the disparity between media portrayals and the actual data.\" class=\"wp-image-413881\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?w=900&amp;ssl=1 900w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?resize=300%2C171&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?resize=768%2C437&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-339.png?resize=640%2C364&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 1. A comparison of presentations of satellite data capturing Greenland\u2019s ice mass loss. The image on the right shows changes in Greenland\u2019s ice mass relative to Greenland\u2019s total ice mass. Sources: The data plotted in these graphs are from the Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise, a joint exercise by NASA and the European Space Agency.4 Graphs originally by Willis Eschenbach. Adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, contrary to the scientists claims, Greenland\u2019s ice sheet is not \u201cbeing thawed.\u201d If Greenland isn\u2019t losing massive amounts of ice, colder water flowing from Greenland can\u2019t be disrupting the AMOC\u2019s ability to transport warm and cold water around the Atlantic from North to South and back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA key Atlantic current could be pushed to the brink of collapse within decades, supposedly ushering in a new ice age and dramatically raising sea levels, climate scientists have claimed in a controversial new study published in the journal&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/go.nypost.com\/?id=93051X1547088&amp;isjs=1&amp;jv=15.7.1&amp;sref=https%3A%2F%2Fnypost.com%2F2025%2F11%2F12%2Fscience%2Fgulf-stream-on-the-verge-of-collapse-scientists-warn%2F&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fs43247-025-02793-1&amp;xs=1&amp;xtz=360&amp;xuuid=f6e5e535639df5d46876d24d5d96e2c3&amp;xjsf=other_click__auxclick%20%5B2%5D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Communications Earth &amp; Environment<\/a>,\u201d writes the NYP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Labeling this study \u201ccontroversial\u201d as opposed to nonsense is kind on the NYP\u2019s part, since the claim that the AMOC\u2019s collapse would lead to both the next ice age and rising seas is nonsensical. During ice ages, seas fall dramatically as the water stored in the oceans is what forms the glaciers. Seas rise during interglacial periods as the ice sheets retreat and return water to the seas. You can\u2019t have both rising seas and glacial expansion across the land \u2013 where does the water for the glacier growth come from?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The final and ultimately dispositive nail in the coffin for the claim that a dramatically slowed or stalled AMOC would lead to the next ice age is our historical, scientific understanding of the causes of past ice ages. The causes of what scientists refer to as ice ages, periods of a hundred thousand years or more where glaciers grow from the arctic to cover vast swaths of the Northern Hemisphere, are multiple and complex, of which AMOC currently may play, at best, a small part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is some evidence that a combination of a slowed AMOC coinciding with periods of reduced solar activity have been responsible for mini-ice ages in the past, lowering temperatures modestly with mountain glaciers expanding some, and temperatures dropping disrupting crop production. However, these periods have occurred without any contribution from humanity and are not what the recent study and the NYP\u2019s reporting of it bring to mind. Rather, what the scientists are implying is that a stagnant AMOC by itself, will cause a true ice age with, for example, glaciers reclaiming Canada and parts of the United States and Europe, leaving a vast swath of humanity shivering, with what remains of modern civilization living hand to mouth \u2013 a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0319262\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Day After Tomorrow<\/a>\u201d scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But true ice ages aren\u2019t caused by collapsed AMOC or reduced sun spots. Rather, these large scale geologic phenomena are a result of Milankovitch cycles, during which: the<br>Earth\u2019s Eccentricity, that is its orbit, changes from nearly circular to more elliptical over cycles of about 100,000 to 400,000 years; the tilt of Earth\u2019s axis, its Obliquity, changes over a cycle of about 41,000 years; and the wobble of Earth\u2019s axis, or its Precession, changes the orientation of the tilt, affecting the distribution of sunlight received at different times of the year over a cycle of about 26,000 years. These are the main drivers of ice ages, which also occur, it is worth noting, when carbon dioxide levels are in decline and much lower than now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To conclude, while another ice age will likely occur in the future, a slowing AMOC physically can\u2019t be the cause. Also, there is no evidence an ice age is pending in the near future. Perhaps, going forward, the\u00a0<em>New York Post<\/em>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.express.co.uk\/news\/science\/2132984\/new-atlantic-current-warning-gulf-stream-collapse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">other news outlets<\/a>\u00a0should ignore studies that make claims about pending ice ages from causes that are physically impossible, being refuted by physics and real-world data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The New York Post (NYP) covered a recent study that claims the \u201cGulf Stream\u201d could soon collapse due to human caused climate change. Scientifically, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has slowed and sped up on its own due to physical factors that humans have no control over, but it has never before caused a major ice age, although its slowing has cooled regions on the order of years and decades. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":413883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the debate on whether the Gulf Stream's potential collapse could trigger an ice age, backed by recent studies and expert insights.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Gulf Stream Collapse: Ice Age Predictions Debunked","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.AafBq8jCuIzd8ZMsKZpuphjLFGWnHqhPbMLVpVEQn58MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821384,691839725,691818153,691833847],"class_list":["post-413878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","tag-gulf-stream-2","tag-climate-models","tag-new-york-post-nyp-2","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQMyuaW5zRRfKusWuCVy5OtlBavUb_8xSDgknI5zE1YjyJLUKkWc0oM5PV5getJbgkX3P2mhQJaUaZoy2dKBryYVuLLDQ6ipN27btSN0pVkVlFqTDT178iD5zD1suVWU-1.jpeg?fit=1705%2C996&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1JFs","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":269746,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269746","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":0},"title":"Climate Disaster Study: Gulf Stream Could Collapse as Early as 2025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"An AMOC collapse is believed to have caused the\u00a0Younger Dryas, an abrupt return to Northern Hemisphere ice age conditions which occurred 12,900 years ago, which lasted over a thousand years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/0globaloceancurrents.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":270980,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=270980","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":1},"title":"The Guardian\u2019s (ocean) circulation problem","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Is there no loyalty among climate extremists? The Guardian makes a mistake about the fundamental difference between the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and suddenly everyone is on its case, some accusing it of sloppy reporting, others demanding a correction of its fake news, (which didn\u2019t\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/OIG-98-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409239","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":2},"title":"New Study Contradicts The Alarmist Narrative That Says The AMOC Is Catastrophically Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Alarmists claim that, due to anthropogenic climate change (AGW), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening to the point that it\u2019s on the verge of\u00a0collapsing. It\u2019s claimed this will lead to abrupt cooling and extreme weather in the North Atlantic region.","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-climate-change-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414279,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414279","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":3},"title":"\u00a0Is The Gulf Stream Really Collapsing? Debunking Another Climate Doomsday Claim","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The idea that global warming could paradoxically shut down the Gulf Stream, plunging Europe into a new cold spell\u2014a scenario popularized by the film\u00a0The Day After Tomorrow\u2014is a powerful narrative.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282169,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282169","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":4},"title":"AMOC: A Non-Tipping point","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/06\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Gabriel Oxenstierna, Ph.D The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is one of Earth\u2019s major ocean circulation systems\u2014it redistributes heat on our planet and is a key driver of climate variability. There is a northward transport of heat throughout the Atlantic, comprising one quarter of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0PBwTwPhNHqHE294xqxrPed-1200-80.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272988,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272988","url_meta":{"origin":413878,"position":5},"title":"The &#8216;Gulf Stream&#8217; will not collapse in 2025: What the alarmist headlines got wrong","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Those following the latest developments in climate science would have been stunned by the jaw-dropping headlines last week proclaiming the\u00a0\"Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests\"\u2014which responded to a\u00a0recent publication in\u00a0Nature Communications.","rel":"","context":"In \"alarmist headlines\"","block_context":{"text":"alarmist headlines","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alarmist-headlines"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-487.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413878","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=413878"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413878\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":413885,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413878\/revisions\/413885"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/413883"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=413878"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=413878"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=413878"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}