{"id":413861,"date":"2025-11-19T08:41:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-19T07:41:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413861"},"modified":"2025-11-19T08:41:52","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T07:41:52","slug":"is-rainfall-in-wales-more-extreme","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413861","title":{"rendered":"Is Rainfall in Wales More\u00a0Extreme?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"People<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

I had a fruitful conversation with Grok, after he\/she\/it mentioned in passing that floods in Monmouth since 2000 had become more frequent because of climate change:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When challenged he referred me to Met Office reports, which stated the amount of rain falling on the wettest days (99th percentile) has increased by ~20 % across Wales since 1960. He also quoted attribution studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I responded by pointing out that the 1960 to 1990 period was a much drier interlude. When the HADUKP daily data, which goes back to 1931, and monthly data back to 1836 was analysed, those \u201cextremes\u201d disappeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grok responded:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Which, I suppose, all goes to show that you should not trust the Met Office without checking the data first!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this is what that data shows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You\u2019ve already seen this graph for daily rainfall, which clearly shows no worsening trends:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
https:\/\/notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com\/2025\/11\/16\/storm-claudia\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I have also extrapolated the highest daily values each year:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Bar<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The Met Office keeps monthly data back to 1936 for the whole of Wales.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/research\/climate\/maps-and-data\/uk-and-regional-series<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

December 2015 was the wettest month with a total of 334.1mm. However, November 1929 was effectively just as wet with 333.8mm. (It is also worth noting that December 1929 had 301.9mm, making it the 8th wettest on record. The period from October 1929 to January 1930 recorded 1068mm, an average of 267mm per month. It was by far the wettest four month period in Wales, wetter even than September to December 2000 and the wettest part of the autumn\/winter of 2015\/16).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Met Office Monthly Weather Reports for 1929\/30 mention \u201cextensive and severe floods across South Wales, in addition to much of the country. Grok made no mention of floods in Monmouth at that time, even though they must have occurred there too. This serves as a reminder that many floods in the past have not been recorded for posterity on the internet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I had a fruitful conversation with Grok, after he\/she\/it mentioned in passing that floods in Monmouth since 2000 had become more frequent because of climate change:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":413876,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how rainfall patterns in Wales have changed since 1931 and challenge the claims around increased flooding in recent decades.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Examining Rainfall Trends and Flood Frequencies in Wales","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMVwvMEFRUHdEeHBFVjl5MmF5U215Y0NEdjlITGphbmVCUm5SeTF2M0lTMXhCcEVmRl93TXBXaTRVVmp5MjhJRXI1d0NQWGRmNGw5cEVVZG5ieU1wcEd0aDE0LVZNaW1xSEI0VE9WUkhSSnBITWo1VzZ1YUt6TzUyMmtIYmZfNWZ0QzhsLTEtMTAyNHg1MzguanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IklzIFJhaW5mYWxsIGluIFdhbGVzIE1vcmVcdTAwYTBFeHRyZW1lPyIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.CljIgQ3ka7pojWZ_wwfOf8R9bz347VNb5VaU9rn5DGMMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691839723,691839724,691818808,691825799],"class_list":{"0":"post-413861","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-extreme-rain","9":"tag-hadukp","10":"tag-met-office","11":"tag-wales","13":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQPwDxpEV9y2aySmycCDv9HLjaneBRnRy1v3IS1xBpEfF_wMpWi4UVjy28IEr5wCPXdf4l9pEUdnbyMppGth14-VMimqHB4TOVRHRJpHMj5W6uaKzO522kHbf_5ftC8l-1.jpeg?fit=1661%2C873&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1JFb","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":293029,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=293029","url_meta":{"origin":413861,"position":0},"title":"Wales To Spend \u00a32.6 Billion Fighting Climate Change Next\u00a0Year","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/29\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"There are 1.3 million households in Wales, so over this two period climate spending by the Welsh Government will cost each and every one \u00a34000. 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And for people with a sauna, it\u2019s not\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0uk-mortality-cold-heat.png?fit=900%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0uk-mortality-cold-heat.png?fit=900%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0uk-mortality-cold-heat.png?fit=900%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/0uk-mortality-cold-heat.png?fit=900%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":294220,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=294220","url_meta":{"origin":413861,"position":5},"title":"UK Rainfall In\u00a02023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Last year was a wet one in England & Wales, the 7th wettest on record. 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