{"id":412957,"date":"2025-11-12T18:57:57","date_gmt":"2025-11-12T17:57:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412957"},"modified":"2025-11-12T18:58:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-12T17:58:00","slug":"uk-regulator-proposes-energy-companies-use-rcp8-5-for-stress-testing-climate-impacts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412957","title":{"rendered":"UK Regulator Proposes Energy Companies Use RCP8.5 for Stress Testing Climate Impacts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"356\" data-attachment-id=\"412963\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=412963\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?fit=1651%2C812&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1651,812\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C356&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=723%2C356&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A dramatic seascape featuring a dark, stormy sky, crashing waves, and a fiery explosion in the background. Overlaying the image are the acronyms 'ipcc,' 'RCP2.6,' 'RCP4.5,' and 'RCP8.5' in varying colors and sizes, representing different climate scenario pathways.\" class=\"wp-image-412963\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=1024%2C504&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=300%2C148&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=768%2C378&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=1536%2C755&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=640%2C315&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?resize=1200%2C590&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?w=1651&amp;ssl=1 1651w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/11\/09\/uk-regulator-proposes-energy-companies-use-rcp8-5-for-stress-testing-climate-impacts\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Essay by<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/eworrall1\/\">Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">h\/t&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/11\/08\/monbiot-bill-gates-rejects-climate-action-because-he-is-rich\/#comment-4129064\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">strativarius<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2025\/11\/08\/ofgem-caught-using-climate-armageddon-worst-case-scenario-for-energy-planning\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Daily Skeptic<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 A public writ for resource misallocation and higher British energy bills.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consultation<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ED3 Sector Specific Methodology Consultation \u2013<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Climate resilience stress testing methodological<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>framework Annex<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Publication date: 08 October 2025<br>Response deadline: 03 December 2025<br>Contact: Chris Bishop, Alex Holder<br>Team: Climate Resilience Team<br>Telephone: 020 7901 7000<br>Email:&nbsp;ClimateResilienceTeam@ofgem.gov.uk<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We are consulting on the methodologies we will apply for the electricity distribution sector in the ED3 price control which will run from 1 April 2028 to 31 March 2033. We would like views from stakeholders with an interest in the regulation of energy networks. We would particularly welcome responses from groups representing consumers of electricity. We would also welcome responses from other stakeholders and the public.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document provides the framework to the methodology for Phase A stress testing with outputs expected from ED licensed network operators by December 2025. More detailed guidance and templates will be provided to network operators separately. This document is an Annex to the ED3 Sector Specific Methodology Consultation (SSMC) core document and should be read alongside it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The methodology of Phase A is comprised of five key steps (for more detail see Chapter 5):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Step 1 evidence gathering \u2013 Ofgem undertakes a Rapid Evidence Review of existing literature and evidence to inform vulnerability of network assets to climate hazards. DNOs attribute location data to fault data and submit to Ofgem;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Step 2 fragility curves and vulnerability analysis \u2013 The Met Office correlates the fault data with weather data to understand the relationship between a specific impact parameter, eg customer minutes lost, and specific weather conditions, namely windstorms and extreme high temperatures. This will produce fragility curves according to asset classes. \u2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Step 3 climate stress test analysis \u2013\u00a0<strong>The Met Office will estimate how the vulnerability thresholds for windstorms and extreme heat are projected to change in 2080 based on climate projections using a 4\u00b0C warming scenario using RCP8.5.<\/strong>\u00a012\u00a0DNOs consider flood risk assessments for substations in line with ETR138 and, for England, utilising the latest relevant flood maps;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Step 4 valuation and resilience options \u2013 DNOs estimate the investment that will be required to maintain current levels of service and mitigate future changes to vulnerability thresholds by following guidance provided by Ofgem; and<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Step 5 Final analysis and findings \u2013 We will analyse the DNOs\u2019 submissions and utilise its findings, alongside other evidence, to inform a long-term climate resilience goal for ED3.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Step 3 climate stress test analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5.8&nbsp;<strong>This step looks to consider how climate in 2080 could impact on the impact parameter based on 4\u00b0C global warming under RCP8.5.<\/strong>&nbsp;For windstorms and extreme temperatures, this will be done by the Met Office who will explore using ERA5 data to assess past event impacts and produce any necessary bias corrections to wind projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5.10&nbsp;<strong>The UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)15&nbsp;will be used to provide projections of future climate change, using the RCP8.5 warming scenario pathway.<\/strong>&nbsp;Temperature data can be provided to 5km grid resolution whilst wind gusts can be provided up to 12km resolution which will affect the level of granularity we can provide on future changes. It should be noted that assessing the climate change signal and robust projections is more challenging for windstorms than for temperature derived metrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Step 4 climate resilience options and cost analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5.13&nbsp;Step 4 aims to understand the costs of resilience options and actions which:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Would be required to maintain \u201ccurrent levels of resilience\u201d \u2013 specifically, which resilience actions could be taken to reduce the updated impact parameter value (identified in step 3 as change to projected impact expected under climate change) back down the vulnerability threshold level (as agreed under step 2).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Are identified by applying ETR138 to substations,\u00a0<strong>assuming a climate scenario of RCP8.5 in 2080, using DNOs existing approaches to flood risk assessment\u00a0alongside any additional investments for other assets at risk of flooding.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ofgem.gov.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-10\/ED3%20SSMC%20Climate%20Resilience%20Stress%20Testing%20Methodological%20Framework%20Annex%20FINAL_clean.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.ofgem.gov.uk\/sites\/default\/files\/2025-10\/ED3%20SSMC%20Climate%20Resilience%20Stress%20Testing%20Methodological%20Framework%20Annex%20FINAL_clean.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Roger Pielke Jnr\u2019s take on RCP 8.5;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What is a \u201cWorst Case\u201d Climate Scenario?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Making sense of climate scenarios, Part 3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@rogerpielkejr\"><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@rogerpielkejr\">ROGER PIELKE JR.<\/a><br>JUN 05, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The implausibly extreme and hugely popular climate scenario RCP8.5 made it into President Trump\u2019s executive order last week on \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/05\/restoring-gold-standard-science\/\">Restoring Gold Standard Science<\/a>.\u201d Ironically, the Trump administration\u2019s characterization of RCP8.5 did not quite reach the \u201cgold standard,\u201d and maybe not even a \u201cbronze standard. \u201c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The EO states:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[Federal a]gencies have used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 to assess the potential effects of climate change in a \u201chigher\u201d warming scenario. RCP 8.5 is a worst-case scenario based on highly unlikely assumptions like end-of-century coal use exceeding estimates of recoverable coal reserves. Scientists have warned that presenting RCP 8.5 as a likely outcome is misleading.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RCP8.5 is not simply \u201chighly unlikely\u201d \u2014 it is falsified, meaning that its emissions trajectory is already well out of step with reality. We showed this conclusively in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/abcdd2\">Burgess et al. 2021<\/a>, from which the annotated figure below comes from.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"719\" height=\"447\" data-attachment-id=\"412961\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=412961\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?fit=719%2C447&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"719,447\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?fit=719%2C447&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?resize=719%2C447&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A graph displaying global CO2 emissions from energy, comparing projections based on the RCP8.5 scenario with real-world emissions and near-term projections from 2005 to 2045.\" class=\"wp-image-412961\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?w=719&amp;ssl=1 719w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?resize=300%2C187&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/image-207.png?resize=640%2C398&amp;ssl=1 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The gap between the black arrow (RCP8.5) and the blue arrow (reality) indicates that RCP8.5 is not just unlikely, but impossible \u2014 it is already wildly wrong. Since we published that paper, that gap between RCP8.5 and reality has only grown larger (stay tuned on that!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/what-is-a-worst-case-climate-scenario?utm_source=publication-search\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/what-is-a-worst-case-climate-scenario?utm_source=publication-search<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What does the UK MET, Britain\u2019s official scientific climate authority, have to say about RCP8.5?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>UKCP18 Guidance: Representative Concentration Pathways<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What are RCPs?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To model and predict future climate it is necessary to make assumptions about the economic, social and physical changes to our environment that will influence climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a method for capturing those assumptions within a set of scenarios. The conditions of each scenario are used in the process of modelling possible future climate evolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RCPs specify concentrations of greenhouse gases that will result in total radiative forcing increasing by a target amount by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. Total radiative forcing is the difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Radiative forcing targets for 2100 have been set at 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 watts per square metre (W m-2) to span a wide range of plausible future emissions scenarios and these targets are incorporated into the names of the RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP4.5,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Each pathway results in a different range of global mean temperature increases over the 21st century (see Table 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2026Read more:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/research\/ukcp\/ukcp18-guidance---representative-concentration-pathways.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/binaries\/content\/assets\/metofficegovuk\/pdf\/research\/ukcp\/ukcp18-guidance\u2014representative-concentration-pathways.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It seems pretty obvious what is happening here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>RCP8.5, by any reasonable measure, is junk science.<\/strong>&nbsp;But until the IPCC or UK MET or other official body comes clean and issues official guidance about the implausibility of RCP8.5, bureaucrats have to defer to the officially sanctioned worst case scenario for any stress testing guidance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unfortunately, in this case the choice of such an unrealistic scenario has real world consequences. Unless this bureaucratic train wreck is somehow diverted during the consultation phase,\u00a0<strong>Energy companies are going to be forced to build flood defences and more elaborate cooling systems, to guard against a fantasy scenario which will never happen.\u00a0<\/strong>I\u2019m not sure what impact this will have on already exorbitant British energy bills, but I\u2019m sure glad I won\u2019t have to experience that impact first hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A public writ for resource misallocation and higher British energy bills.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":412963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the implications of RCP8.5 as a worst-case climate scenario for UK's energy companies and its effects on rising energy costs.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Evaluating RCP8.5: The Impacts on UK Energy Planning","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI1XC8xMVwvMEFRTnJrbGRsb0dYczFabXg1UzdFRnozbThfSElXRGdOWUFkQmo3ZDFQbEVRdzYyeTV6Q1FtTFM0d2swYUVnT1duV2lxTVkxckJ4NFA5YnFFWjkzQVB3aHMwVlJfenh5VVBReklrV0lmYnAyVXkxY201SE1VWUhVc0gwaGNBUk1jLTEtMTAyNHg1MDQuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IlVLIFJlZ3VsYXRvciBQcm9wb3NlcyBFbmVyZ3kgQ29tcGFuaWVzIFVzZSBSQ1A4LjUgZm9yIFN0cmVzcyBUZXN0aW5nIENsaW1hdGUgSW1wYWN0cyIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.5vbjW7NlzUA5eG3PIL9-fIp1Gb8R3zqUg0WnaPH8-AEMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691839631,691818056,691818087,691818381,691818808,691820065,691839632],"class_list":["post-412957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-british-energy-bills","tag-climate-change","tag-global-warming","tag-ipcc","tag-met-office","tag-ofgem","tag-unrealistic-scenario","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNrkldloGXs1Zmx5S7EFz3m8_HIWDgNYAdBj7d1PlEQw62y5zCQmLS4wk0aEgOWnWiqMY1rBx4P9bqEZ93APwhs0VR_zxyUPQzIkWIfbp2Uy1cm5HMUYHUsH0hcARMc-1.jpeg?fit=1651%2C812&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1JqB","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":296200,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=296200","url_meta":{"origin":412957,"position":0},"title":"Pay Attention, America: Edmund Burke and the Folly of British Climate \u201cLeadership\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/17\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The results have been a disaster. Even before the recent surge in energy costs, in 2020, Britons were paying about 75% more for electricity than Americans; and during the energy crisis in 2022, electricity rates for British businesses were more than double the average paid by US businesses.","rel":"","context":"In \"Britain\u2019s decarbonization\"","block_context":{"text":"Britain\u2019s decarbonization","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=britains-decarbonization"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0digital-sustainability-1200x628-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0digital-sustainability-1200x628-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0digital-sustainability-1200x628-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0digital-sustainability-1200x628-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/0digital-sustainability-1200x628-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C628&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":422557,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=422557","url_meta":{"origin":412957,"position":1},"title":"British Climate Crusade Creates Economic Disaster","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/22\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Across the Atlantic, a self-inflicted disaster is steadily unfolding. One of the United States\u2019 closest allies, the United Kingdom, has surrendered energy riches and industrial prowess.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201ccarbon tax\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201ccarbon tax\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-tax-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPjfdWdWZ6SFBQFlHznDHF2nriE1u3h0Fk3qhDU-lF5PMuEed105H4-MUKgfiW2jAHZMdliDTStjPNm_Gzv8u7CcWtrlmc6PJNLny4GTAJ4E0A8IX4BGoPMaH9KeToDf2yI4WDgtExbFHULUXByeNpDpJzlCQ-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPjfdWdWZ6SFBQFlHznDHF2nriE1u3h0Fk3qhDU-lF5PMuEed105H4-MUKgfiW2jAHZMdliDTStjPNm_Gzv8u7CcWtrlmc6PJNLny4GTAJ4E0A8IX4BGoPMaH9KeToDf2yI4WDgtExbFHULUXByeNpDpJzlCQ-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPjfdWdWZ6SFBQFlHznDHF2nriE1u3h0Fk3qhDU-lF5PMuEed105H4-MUKgfiW2jAHZMdliDTStjPNm_Gzv8u7CcWtrlmc6PJNLny4GTAJ4E0A8IX4BGoPMaH9KeToDf2yI4WDgtExbFHULUXByeNpDpJzlCQ-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPjfdWdWZ6SFBQFlHznDHF2nriE1u3h0Fk3qhDU-lF5PMuEed105H4-MUKgfiW2jAHZMdliDTStjPNm_Gzv8u7CcWtrlmc6PJNLny4GTAJ4E0A8IX4BGoPMaH9KeToDf2yI4WDgtExbFHULUXByeNpDpJzlCQ-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQPjfdWdWZ6SFBQFlHznDHF2nriE1u3h0Fk3qhDU-lF5PMuEed105H4-MUKgfiW2jAHZMdliDTStjPNm_Gzv8u7CcWtrlmc6PJNLny4GTAJ4E0A8IX4BGoPMaH9KeToDf2yI4WDgtExbFHULUXByeNpDpJzlCQ-2.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":244136,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=244136","url_meta":{"origin":412957,"position":2},"title":"Net Zero or Good Enough?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Given many people in poor countries apparently misunderstood the question, it seems likely support for expensive carbon reduction policies across much of the world is actually pretty close to net zero.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-395.png?fit=1200%2C794&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-395.png?fit=1200%2C794&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-395.png?fit=1200%2C794&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-395.png?fit=1200%2C794&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-395.png?fit=1200%2C794&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253485,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253485","url_meta":{"origin":412957,"position":3},"title":"Biden\u2019s green spending blitz could plunge world into \u2018dark ages\u2019, warns Hunt","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Subsidising net zero type so-called climate policies in the US is not only enormously expensive but globally disruptive as well, it seems. Climate protection becoming climate protectionism?","rel":"","context":"In \"Britain\u2019s economy\"","block_context":{"text":"Britain\u2019s economy","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=britains-economy"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0money-down-the-drain74.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0money-down-the-drain74.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0money-down-the-drain74.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0money-down-the-drain74.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0money-down-the-drain74.jpeg?fit=1200%2C797&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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\"Brazil\"","block_context":{"text":"Brazil","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=brazil"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNr0Piy25gojnizWe9A1b4wphe4keWFpwQOt1PN57ocB9PPR1zgfUueeMgMf6M-FmB1HDNSZJLfL3mTspGTelGpzs5DRysLwzTCH2uYZsWGSvv_E9T-VybpuBanVquL-1.jpeg?fit=1077%2C936&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNr0Piy25gojnizWe9A1b4wphe4keWFpwQOt1PN57ocB9PPR1zgfUueeMgMf6M-FmB1HDNSZJLfL3mTspGTelGpzs5DRysLwzTCH2uYZsWGSvv_E9T-VybpuBanVquL-1.jpeg?fit=1077%2C936&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQNr0Piy25gojnizWe9A1b4wphe4keWFpwQOt1PN57ocB9PPR1zgfUueeMgMf6M-FmB1HDNSZJLfL3mTspGTelGpzs5DRysLwzTCH2uYZsWGSvv_E9T-VybpuBanVquL-1.jpeg?fit=1077%2C936&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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