{"id":412382,"date":"2025-11-09T19:37:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T18:37:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412382"},"modified":"2025-11-09T19:37:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T18:37:36","slug":"the-independent-is-wrong-coffee-chocolate-and-wine-are-thriving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412382","title":{"rendered":"The Independent is Wrong \u2013 Coffee, Chocolate, and Wine Are Thriving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Independent\u2019s<\/em> recent article, \u201cEngineering climate may not be enough to save coffee, chocolate, and wine,\u201d<\/em><\/a> warns that even extreme geoengineering might not preserve \u201cluxury crops\u201d in a warming world. The whole story is based on a false premise that some technological fix is necessary to prevent crops like cocoa, coffee, and wine grapes from declining. The writer\u2019s mistake is to rely on flawed computer model projections rather than real-world agricultural data that show the crops the story claims are under threat are actually thriving in today\u2019s slightly warmer world. An understanding of crop biology indicates crop yields and production should continue to improve in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study<\/a> behind the article relied on simulations of stratospheric aerosol injection<\/em> (SAI), a highly controversial technique that would spray reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight, cooling the Earth. SAI is increasingly promoted as a last-ditch tool to \u201cfix\u201d global warming, but the science and potential side effects make it a profoundly bad idea. The models used to justify SAI\u2019s necessity already exaggerate warming by a wide margin<\/a>, so any proposed \u201ccorrection\u201d risks overshooting reality. Studies have warned that SAI could severely disrupt global precipitation patterns, may impact global systems and human health outcomes<\/a>, which could undermine food and water security far more than modest warming would. The cooling effects of volcanic eruptions \u2014 often cited as SAI\u2019s natural analogue \u2014 also illustrate its dangers. After Mount Pinatubo\u2019s 1991 eruption, global temperatures dropped briefly<\/a>, but so did rainfall, crop yields, and sunlight reaching the surface. Moreover, research from the American Geophysical Union<\/a> shows that stopping aerosol injections suddenly could trigger rapid rebound warming worse than the original problem. In short, SAI would amount to a global-scale experiment with unpredictable consequences, addressing symptoms rather than causes and risking climatic side effects no computer model can reliably forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers cited by the Independent <\/em>concluded that while SAI might reduce global temperatures, it would not reliably protect coffee, cacao, or wine grapes from future climate shifts. What the article doesn\u2019t mention is that such predictions come from models that have repeatedly exaggerated past warming trends. According to Climate at a Glance: Climate Model Fallibility<\/em><\/a>, climate models \u201crun hot,\u201d overstating observed temperature changes by roughly a factor of two. If the models are off in their temperature projections,  any conclusions drawn about future agricultural impacts are equally suspect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that the Independent\u2019s<\/em> reporter, Emily Beament, presents these simulations as if they reflect reality. They do not. Real-world crop data tell a very different story. In the actual world, the three crops supposedly in peril are thriving. Climate Realism<\/em> has repeatedly demonstrated<\/a> that global coffee output has been rising for several decades, setting new records and repeatedly debunking sporadic warnings of decline. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations act as plant fertilizer, enhancing photosynthesis and improving drought resistance\u2014factors that have helped coffee plantations, not harmed them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same pattern holds for chocolate. West Africa, which provides about 70 percent of the world\u2019s cacao, continues to produce robust harvests. Climate Realism<\/em> has pointed out in Chocolate Shortages? Not in the Real World<\/em><\/a> that production trends remain strong, and farmers are adapting successfully through irrigation improvements and hardier hybrid plants. There is no evidence of a climate-driven collapse, only the ongoing evolution of agricultural practice that has always defined farming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even wine grapes, the article\u2019s third \u201cendangered\u201d crop, have prospered. A warmer world has actually expanded vineyard regions, especially in northern Europe. Climate Realism<\/em> reported in Warmer Weather Is Expanding, Not Shrinking, Wine Regions<\/em><\/a> that England now produces high-quality sparkling wines in areas once considered too cold for grape cultivation. Meanwhile, global grape yields continue rising, with improved quality linked to longer growing seasons and CO\u2082 enrichment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hard numbers confirm these assertions. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization<\/a> (FAO) reports that since 2000:<\/p>\n\n\n\n