{"id":412307,"date":"2025-11-09T13:47:56","date_gmt":"2025-11-09T12:47:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307"},"modified":"2025-11-09T13:47:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-09T12:47:59","slug":"hurricane-forecast-was-overly-alarmist-againatlantic-season-ending-near-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted that an above average Atlantic huricane seacon<\/a> for 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now that the season is winding down, we are able to start concluding and summarizing the season: it\u2019s going to come in as near normal activity. The forecast made earlier this year was a bit on the hyped side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane season forecasts have not really improved, despite all the claims that models are better than ever:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we\u2019ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,\u201d said NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. \u201cThis outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you\u2019re ready before a storm threatens.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The agency forecast a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 were forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near average season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to\u00a0data from the Univestity of Colorado<\/a>, the season is now slightly above average (November 7) in terms of accumulated cyclone energy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
Source:\u00a0University of Colorado<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Though more activity may occur before the end of the month, currently there are no signs of tropical storms<\/a> in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global overall trend<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alarmists have claimed tropical storm activity would increase with the onset of global warming. Though the globe has warmed over the past 50 years, global cyclone activity has not escalated as feared:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Twleve-month running average counts of global hurricanes (top) and major hurricanes (bottom), 1980 to March 10, 2025. Source:\u00a0Ryan Maue<\/a>.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Quite to the contrary, the overall trend has been somewhat downard since 1990, with no real trend since 1970:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Total annual global ACE (which integrates frequency and intensity) 1970 to March 10, 2025. Source:\u00a0Ryan Maue<\/a>.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The reality hasn\u2019t cooperated with the alarmist climate hype. It\u2019s been a disappointing season for catastrophe prophets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":412317,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the 2025 hurricane season forecast, which now indicates near-normal activity despite earlier alarmist predictions.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Near Normal Activity Unveiled","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691839401,691839399,691839400,691839398,691831875],"class_list":["post-412307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-catastrophe-prophets","tag-hurricanes-2025","tag-tropical-storm-activity","tag-us-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration-noaa","tag-weather-models","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Jg7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":412307,"position":0},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","url_meta":{"origin":412307,"position":1},"title":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 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For example, these headlines: NBC News, NOAA issues highest-ever early forecast for the coming hurricane season;\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-Hurricane-13.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=412307"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":412319,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412307\/revisions\/412319"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/412317"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=412307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=412307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=412307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}