{"id":411107,"date":"2025-10-31T11:34:19","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T10:34:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107"},"modified":"2025-10-31T11:34:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T10:34:21","slug":"the-ap-gets-hurricanes-wrong-again-melissas-intensity-is-not-proof-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107","title":{"rendered":"The AP Gets Hurricanes Wrong, Again, Melissa\u2019s Intensity Is Not Proof of Climate Change"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Satellite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Satellite<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a widely published Associated Press <\/em>(AP) article, \u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d<\/a> reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data refute claims that climate change is causing more severe or frequent hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story cites the climate advocacy group Climate Central, which claims that climate change is making hurricanes \u201cmore likely to intensify quickly, especially near coastlines.\u201d While it is true that warm water fuels hurricanes\u2014meteorologists have known that for more than a century\u2014long-term climate change cannot be blamed for the specifics of a single storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrary to what the AP says, as Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes<\/a> explains, there has been no increase in the frequency or intensity of hurricanes over the past century<\/strong>, even as carbon dioxide concentrations have risen. For example, Figure 1 below shows the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, a measure of intensity, over more than 50 years, and there is no increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
Figure 1: Last 50-years+ of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line\/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line\/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE. Source: Ryan N. Maue, \u201cGlobal Tropical Cyclone Activity,\u201d Climate Atlas, https:\/\/climatlas.com\/tropical\/global_running_ace.png<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s Historical Hurricane Tracks<\/em><\/a> database shows that hurricane activity fluctuates naturally, with the 1940s through 1960s being among the most active periods on record\u2014long before modern fossil fuel emissions were significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) acknowledges that there is \u201clow confidence in any long-term trends in hurricane activity.\u201d<\/strong> The IPCC\u2019s Sixth Assessment Report<\/a> found no detectable increase in either global tropical cyclone frequency or landfall intensity. See the table below from the IPCC report and note the highlighted section on tropical cyclones:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Table
Figure 2. Table 12.12 from\u00a0Page 90\u00a0\u2013 Chapter 12 of the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emergence of\u00a0Climate Impact Drivers\u00a0(CIDs) in time periods.\u00a0The color corresponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white colors indicate where evidence of a climate change signal is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overall low confidence of an emerging signal.\u00a0See the key at the bottom for the meaning of all colors.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In plain English, data show the number of hurricanes are not increasing, nor are they demonstrably stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricanes need a lot more than just warm ocean water to form. Atmospheric conditions\u2014such as vertical wind shear, mid-level humidity, the difference between air and water temperatures, and steering patterns\u2014determine whether a storm strengthens or weakens. These are chaotic, short-term variables, not predictable climate trends. Also, there is no evidence that climate change impacts any of those other variables. Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification was a weather event, not evidence of a new climate regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP\u2019s article claims that \u201cAtlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to intensify rapidly from minor storms to powerful and catastrophic events,\u201d referencing a Scientific Reports<\/em> paper<\/a>. This statistic, when scrutinized, is questionable because it relies on satellite-era observations that began only in the 1970s. Earlier storm intensification rates were harder to measure, making today\u2019s apparent \u201cincrease\u201d partly a result of better weather detection technology such as satellites, radar, and continuous monitoring. The statistic also doesn\u2019t account for other factors that impact water temperatures, like El Nino events that warm waters, and reductions in ship emissions<\/a> that research suggests has  contributed to hotter measured ocean temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP uncritically quotes a Climate Central meteorologist who says, \u201c[w]e can\u2019t stop hurricanes, but we can reduce the risk by cutting emissions.\u201d That statement has no basis in science\u2014it\u2019s advocacy. Reducing CO\u2082 will not meaningfully change hurricane formation in the Atlantic, where natural cycles like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation<\/a> (AMO) play a far greater role in modulating storm activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that Hurricane Melissa reached Category 5 intensity hardly makes it unique. Historical records show similar or stronger storms in the past\u2014such as the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane<\/a>, which struck the Florida Keys with estimated winds of 185 mph. That storm occurred during a much cooler global climate period, which disproves both the idea that powerful hurricanes are a modern phenomenon and that they are caused by global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP also ignores the fact that surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic naturally vary by several degrees Celsius over multidecadal cycles<\/a>. The recent warming period that fueled Melissa is part of a recurring oceanic pattern, not proof of an unprecedented climate trend driving hurricane intensity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article concludes by invoking moral urgency\u2014quoting island-nation negotiators who say storms like Melissa \u201cmake it more urgent for countries to act on climate change.\u201d But this is emotional rhetoric, not evidence. Hurricanes have battered the Caribbean for millennia. The only thing \u201cunprecedented\u201d is how newsrooms now attribute every storm to climate change while ignoring the long, cyclical record of similar events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the AP story is a red herring. Warm water helps hurricanes, but that has always been true. There\u2019s no credible long-term evidence of more frequent or intense storms, and no justification for tying one hurricane to global climate change. The data say otherwise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By turning a single weather event into a climate morality tale, The Associated Press<\/em> misleads its readers and betrays journalistic objectivity. Hurricanes, even powerful hurricanes like Melissa are meteorology, not ideology. It is long past time for reporters to acknowledge the difference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978 and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television, specialized weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website wattsupwiththat.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In a widely published\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0(AP) article,\u00a0\u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d\u00a0reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data refute claims that climate change is causing more severe or frequent hurricanes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":411097,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover the truth behind Hurricane Melissa's intensity and why claims linking it to climate change are misleading and unsupported by data.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Hurricane Melissa: Debunking Misleading Climate Claims","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691824727,691839241,691834120,691818056,691818514,691839235,691818104,691820922,691821016],"class_list":["post-411107","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-associated-press-ap","tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-2","tag-climate-central-cc","tag-climate-change","tag-extreme-weather","tag-hurricane-melissa-2","tag-hurricanes","tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration-noaa","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1688%2C1010&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IWL","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":412350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412350","url_meta":{"origin":411107,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Detroit Free Press, Hurricane Melissa Wasn\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a Detroit Free Press (FP) opinion piece, \u201cClimate change denial can\u2019t stand up to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa,\u201d meteorologist Paul Gross claims that Hurricane Melissa proves climate change is making hurricanes stronger, faster, and more destructive. This is false. Hurricanes are weather, not climate. A single storm\u2014or even a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation\u00a0(AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQM8CveSYSj6uN58KMIAdJch3ZfmvQ2inDspGYxqYKoCNUz2TbbzHcXCJnNYIkViPyE_qG8WH5lr38VgHI8FDPRT7DNTad5uiF2VU8ShzkFpp7jU65NRK3osi61VlTE6-1.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416181,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416181","url_meta":{"origin":411107,"position":1},"title":"Sorry, NPR, There Is No Evidence That Climate Change Made Hurricane Melissa Worse for Jamaica","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"National Public Radio ran a segment claiming climate change was to blame for Hurricane Melissa\u2019s severity and its impact on Jamaica. There is no data to justify this claim, which is not supported by Jamaica\u2019s hurricane history or Atlantic hurricane trends. Jamaica has been beset by hurricanes throughout its history,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":410910,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410910","url_meta":{"origin":411107,"position":2},"title":"BBC Lie About Hurricane\u00a0Melissa","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/30\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The frequency of very intense hurricanes such as Melissa is increasing This simply is not true.","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-30-083734.png?fit=1200%2C679&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418224,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418224","url_meta":{"origin":411107,"position":3},"title":"The Critical Flaw in Single-Event Hurricane Climate Attribution","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than a month has passed since the official end of the 2025 hurricane season for the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, 2025 statistics show that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the northern hemisphere was roughly 20% below the 1991-2020 mean while the number of major hurricanes and major hurricane days were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-global-warming-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":418190,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=418190","url_meta":{"origin":411107,"position":4},"title":"The Critical Flaw in Single-Event Hurricane Climate Attribution","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Less than a month has passed since the official end of the 2025 hurricane season for the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, 2025 statistics show that Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the northern hemisphere was roughly 20% below the 1991-2020 mean while the number of major hurricanes and major hurricane days were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)\"","block_context":{"text":"Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMcbpQLc3Hg4E8SPBKConzuCKzERg4wEKBTgm2cdUusHsRn0wMDNPetmyNpUu86uAOuJEoE8rHIZGqpeHTLSzVj8BZgXlZm_eSzeds-JSN2YKHaRXhq3FdfK_Z2vG2e.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQMcbpQLc3Hg4E8SPBKConzuCKzERg4wEKBTgm2cdUusHsRn0wMDNPetmyNpUu86uAOuJEoE8rHIZGqpeHTLSzVj8BZgXlZm_eSzeds-JSN2YKHaRXhq3FdfK_Z2vG2e.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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media has fallen in love with Melissa, many of them blaming \u201cclimate change\u201d, i.e. CO2 for her strength and destructive power.\u00a0 No surprise that Imperial College London (who foisted its covid pandemic models upon us) reports that its IRIS model confirms a \u201crapid attribution\u201d claim.\u00a0 No doubt there will\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide 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