{"id":411065,"date":"2025-10-31T19:26:05","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T18:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411065"},"modified":"2025-10-31T19:26:07","modified_gmt":"2025-10-31T18:26:07","slug":"is-trump-embracing-europes-energy-suicide","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411065","title":{"rendered":"Is Trump Embracing Europe&#8217;s Energy Suicide?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"364\" data-attachment-id=\"411142\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=411142\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?fit=1819%2C917&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1819,917\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d (2)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?fit=723%2C364&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=723%2C364&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A painting of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump seated side by side during a summit labeled 'Pursuing Peace' in Alaska, 2025, with a blue backdrop.\" class=\"wp-image-411142\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=1024%2C516&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=300%2C151&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=768%2C387&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=1536%2C774&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?resize=1200%2C605&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?w=1819&amp;ssl=1 1819w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/home\/post\/p-177584759\">Is Trump Embracing Europe&#8217;s Energy Suicide?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@tilakdoshi\">Tilak Doshi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Russian oil sanctions imitate Europe&#8217;s failed moralistic policies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lenin\u2019s aphorism \u2014 \u201cthere are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen\u201d \u2014 has seldom felt more apt. Since the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska three months ago, global energy geopolitics has convulsed in a series of dizzying turns that have left analysts and investors alike struggling to keep pace. The meeting that was hailed as a bold attempt to initiate peace in Europe, \u2018reset\u2019 US-Russia relations and stabilise energy markets has instead opened a Pandora\u2019s box of further US sanctions on Russia and recriminations of Putin by Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After raising hopes of possible peace for Ukraine when President Trump announced that he would soon be meeting his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin in Budapest, he then announced just a few days later that work on a second summit had halted. The abrupt cancellation of the proposed Budapest meeting suggests that US-Russia diplomacy has collapsed for the foreseeable future. Instead, the US seems to have adopted the maximalist demands of its European allies and is once again calling for immediate unconditional ceasefire. The US-Russia confrontational temperature was raised another notch by the ramping up of US sanctions on Russia that went well beyond what the previous Biden administration had invoked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Alaska Gambit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the Alaska summit, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin struck what appeared to be a pragmatic understanding. Trump, reverting to his businessman instincts, signalled that Washington would support negotiations to end the Ukraine conflict on terms acknowledging&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F4GdUaAZgDc\">battlefield realities<\/a>. This meant, in plain language, that Kyiv would have to cede territory to Moscow and remain a non-NATO neutral country. The \u201cunconditional ceasefire\u201d demanded by European leaders and the Biden-era foreign-policy establishment was, Trump&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/transcript-of-what-putin-trump-said-in-alaska\/\">argued<\/a>, \u201cunrealistic given the battlefield situation\u201d and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/trump-putin-summit-ends-with-no-ceasefire-ukraine-war-2025-08-16\/\">hinted<\/a>&nbsp;at land-swap ideas as the way forward to a negotiated peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Putin, for his part, floated the prospect of joint US-Russian ventures to explore the immense oil and gas reserves of Russia\u2019s Arctic. The&nbsp;<em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/business\/energy-oil\/exxon-rosneft-russia-oil-talks-f524e81f\">reported<\/a>&nbsp;that senior ExxonMobil executives were in secret talks with Rosneft to return to the massive Sakhalin project \u2013 a joint venture which was abandoned after Russia\u2019s invasion in 2022 \u2013 after having been given the green light by US authorities as part of the Ukraine peace process. President Putin also offered US businesses an opportunity to launch joint ventures to exploit Russia\u2019s vast reserves of critical minerals and rare earth metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a moment, the global energy markets exhaled. Oil prices softened a little in the immediate aftermath of the Trump-Putin Alaska summit on August 15th 2025, with Brent crude and WTI futures declining by 1-2% over the following day or two. This dip was attributed in part to optimistic signals about potential US-Russia energy collaborations, including joint ventures in the Arctic. The mood was one of cautious optimism \u2014 until it wasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>From Alaska to Budapest \u2014 and Back to Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Within weeks, Washington\u2019s mood soured. Reports emerged of new Russian offensives near Pokrov, with Western media framing them as proof that Putin had&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7310117\/putin-talks-trump-ukraine-takeaways\/\">used the Alaska talks as a smokescreen<\/a>. Russia hawks in the Trump administration \u2013 Secretary of State and (acting) National Security Advisor Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Keith Kellogg and Republican congressmen such as Senator Lindsey Graham \u2013 seemed to have little time for negotiations on terms outlined in the Alaska summit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The White House&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/volodymyr-zelenskyy-confirms-tomahawk-missiles-victory-plan-blasts-us-for-giving-away-secrets-ukraine-white-house-russia-war-leak\/\">leaked<\/a>&nbsp;plans to supply Kyiv with Tomahawk nuclear-capable cruise missiles, a move possibly designed to placate the hawks in Washington DC and Brussels but guaranteed to provoke Moscow. Predictably, Putin&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/putin-says-tomahawk-supply-ukraine-would-destroy-us-relations-2025-10-05\/\">said<\/a>&nbsp;that it would constitute a severe escalation requiring direct participation of US military personnel \u2014 implying it would cross a red line akin to direct aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response, Trump, in a characteristic burst of frustration,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/timesofindia.indiatimes.com\/world\/us\/not-wasting-time-trump-says-no-meeting-with-putin-until-deal-on-ukraine-admits-hes-disappointed\/articleshow\/124821520.cms\">told<\/a>&nbsp;reporters he was \u201cdisappointed\u201d with Putin and was \u201cre-evaluating\u201d the entire diplomatic process. Then came the Budapest debacle. Trump cancelled what was to have been a follow-up summit \u2014 one he had personally proposed just a few days before \u2014 and, in a twist of theatrical self-contradiction, imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russia\u2019s two major oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil. According to&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-24\/rubio-s-sizing-up-of-russian-spin-spurred-us-shift-on-putin\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/em>, it was Rubio who finally convinced President Trump to take \u201cownership\u201d of the US proxy war on Russia and place the sanctions on Russia\u2019s oil companies. Henceforth, President Trump can no longer call it \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/04\/14\/us-news\/trump-calls-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-bidens-war-as-putin-drags-on-peace-talks\/\">Biden\u2019s war<\/a>\u201d with any shred of credibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/us-announces-sanctions-russian-oil-companies-rosneft-lukoil-2025-10-22\/\">said<\/a>&nbsp;that: \u201cGiven President Putin\u2019s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia\u2019s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin\u2019s war machine. We encourage our allies to join us in and adhere to these sanctions.\u201d It was as if the Alaska summit which had initially signalled a tentative meeting of minds between Trump and Putin to step away from the maximalist position of \u2018immediate unconditional ceasefire\u2019 \u2013 pushed by Ukraine\u2019s Zelensky and Brussels \u2013 was scrubbed from memory. The same administration that had, only weeks earlier, promised a new era of pragmatic engagement had reignited the sanctions war with a vengeance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the Kremlin point of view, this was a familiar pattern: Western flirtation followed by betrayal, as in the affair over the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/putin-russia-may-have-make-ukraine-deal-one-day-partners-cheated-past-2022-12-09\/\">Minsk accords<\/a>&nbsp;which Angela Merkel later admitted was a ruse to buy time for Ukraine to be armed by NATO. For the rest of the world \u2014 particularly the Global South \u2014 it was confirmation that the so-called \u2018rules-based order\u2019 had become a synonym for Western hypocrisy and chaos in global energy markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rosneft is Russia\u2019s largest oil company by production (40% of national output), followed by Lukoil (15-20%). Together they account for a significant 5% of global output. At the limit, using broad estimates of demand elasticity for oil, a complete stop to oil production by the two companies would lead to a price shock of 25- 30% in the short run. Brent at around $65 per barrel currently would jump up to $80-$85, a major shock. In the event, markets reacted to the US sanctions with initial jitters but quickly stabilised, as traders anticipated \u2018workarounds\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The continued use of Russia\u2019s so-called \u2018shadow fleet\u2019 (i.e., those vessels not insured by Lloyds of London) and use of non-dollar settlements by Indian and Chinese oil companies working via proxies has evidently obviated the EU\u2019s 19 sanctions packages over the past three years, resulting in relatively limited impact on the Russian economy or its energy exports. A full cessation of oil exports by Russia\u2019s two major oil companies is unlikely and \u2018limited flows\u2019 via non-direct channels will persist, balancing energy security with compliance risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Europe\u2019s Moral Grandstanding \u2014 and Energy Suicide<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While Washington swung from conciliation to confrontation with Russia, Brussels marched steadfastly towards self-harm as it has over the past two decades in pursuit of its delusions of eco-socialism. While US big tech firms are looking at&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2024\/09\/26\/1104516\/three-mile-island-microsoft\/\">reviving dormant nuclear units<\/a>&nbsp;at Three Mile Island and elsewhere in the country for their datacentre needs, Germany\u2019s green-obsessed government is imploding mothballed nuclear plants to ensure that they can never be revived. On October 25th, two cooling towers at the former Gundremmingen nuclear power plant in Bavaria were&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2025\/10\/25\/germany-destroys-two-nuclear-plant-cooling-towers-as-part-of-nuclear-phaseout-plan\">demolished<\/a>, almost four years after the last reactor was shut down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With electricity prices at triple the US level and the highest in Europe,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2024\/12\/27\/germanys-economic-and-political-suicide\/\">Germany\u2019s de-industrialisation<\/a>&nbsp;is gathering terminal velocity. Following essentially zero GDP growth since 2018,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/economy\/bankruptcies-in-germany-at-highest-since-2009-financial-crisis\/3445964\">corporate bankruptcies<\/a>&nbsp;in Germany have reached their highest level in a decade, with 11,900 insolvencies recorded in the first half of 2025, a 9.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe\u2019s economic powerhouse now has automakers \u2013 one of its core sectors \u2013 on their knees. Its most iconic car manufacturers&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MarioNawfal\/status\/1982192945773043981\">are collapsing<\/a>. Porsche\u2019s operating profit has dropped by 99% in 2025, falling from approximately \u20ac4 billion to just \u20ac40 million. Its parent company, Volkswagen AG, has no money to produce new car models due to cash flow problems and a shortfall of \u20ac11 billion for next year. By August 2025, Germany\u2019s industrial production was over a fifth smaller than the trend over 1997-2017 would have predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"914\" data-attachment-id=\"411067\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=411067\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?fit=810%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"810,1024\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?fit=723%2C914&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?resize=723%2C914&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Graph illustrating the decline of industrial production in Germany from 1993 to August 2025, showing a significant drop of 22.2%. The chart includes actual production data and an extrapolated trend line.\" class=\"wp-image-411067\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?w=810&amp;ssl=1 810w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?resize=237%2C300&amp;ssl=1 237w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/image-574.png?resize=768%2C971&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany\u2019s latest public embarrassment, and a sign of its increasing geopolitical irrelevance, was paraded when German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Friday&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/china-trip-by-german-top-diplomat-cancelled\/\">postponed<\/a>&nbsp;an imminent diplomatic trip to China, over \u201ca dearth of meetings\u201d on his schedule. China is now Germany\u2019s largest trading partner. In plain English, the Chinese said, \u2018don\u2019t bother coming\u2019, after being subject to hectoring by bumptious German leaders on the Taiwan issue, economic relations with Russia and other matters such as China\u2019s \u2018blocking of semiconductor shipments to Europe\u2019. In August, Wadephul had proclaimed that&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/china-provide-crucial-support-enable-vladimir-putin-war-ukraine-germany-johann-wadephul\/\">China was providing \u201ccrucial\u201d support to Russia<\/a>, enabling President Vladimir Putin\u2019s ongoing war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet another arrow in Europe\u2019s moral quiver concerns \u2018corporate social responsibility\u2019 or ESG. The European Commission\u2019s latest proposal for corporate-responsibility codes contained in its&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/commission.europa.eu\/business-economy-euro\/doing-business-eu\/sustainability-due-diligence-responsible-business\/corporate-sustainability-due-diligence_en\">Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive<\/a>&nbsp;would require all firms operating in the EU to document the \u201chuman-rights\u201d and \u201cclimate-impact\u201d credentials of their entire global supply chains. In practice, this meant that energy companies would have to disclose not just emissions data but political affiliations and labour practices across multiple jurisdictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reaction from producers was swift and scathing. In an&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/business\/2025\/10\/23\/qatar-and-us-warn-eu-law-could-threaten-energy-security-as-gecf-ministers-meet\">extraordinary joint communiqu\u00e9<\/a>&nbsp;issued last week, the US Department of Energy and Qatar\u2019s Energy Ministry warned that they could \u201creconsider LNG supply commitments\u201d if the EU persisted with its intrusive regulatory regime. The world\u2019s two largest natural gas producers were on the same page \u2014 defending the sanctity of commerce against Brussels\u2019s moral imperialism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet the EU seems determined to press on. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, invoking the \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d mantra, has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/eu-propose-faster-phase-out-russian-energy-von-der-leyen-says-2025-09-16\/\">pledged<\/a>&nbsp;to end all dependence on Russian oil and gas by end 2027 \u2014 a goal that is as unlikely as it is self-defeating. Despite 19 rounds of sanctions and a significant decline in trade volumes since 2022, the bloc remained&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/policy.trade.ec.europa.eu\/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region\/countries-and-regions\/russia_en\">Russia\u2019s third-largest trading partner in 2024<\/a>, after China and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even sympathetic observers now admit that Europe\u2019s decarbonisation zeal has outpaced its economic common sense. The \u2018Green Deal\u2019, conceived in the salons of Brussels, is meeting the cold reality of physics and finance. Energy cannot be legislated into existence; it must be produced, transported and consumed \u2014 and for that, hydrocarbons, the substrate of civilisation, remain indispensable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The BRICS Counter<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the Atlantic powers engage in the escalation of war rhetoric against Russia&nbsp;<em>\u00e0 la&nbsp;<\/em>Zbigniew Brzezi\u0144ski\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/diplomacy.berlin\/the-grand-chessboard-american-primacy-and-its-geostrategic-imperatives\/\">grand chessboard<\/a>\u201d of American primacy and its geostrategic imperatives, the rest of the world is starting to decouple from the Western alliance. Russia, China and India have accelerated their energy integration, trading crude and LNG in yuan, rupees and dirhams rather than dollars. BRICS nations have been&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tilakdoshi\/2022\/07\/21\/brics-in-the-new-world-energy-order-hedging-in-oil-geopolitics\/\">discussing<\/a>&nbsp;a basket-based settlement currency to bypass the Western financial system since 2022, having witnessed the total economic war that the Western alliance had unleashed on Moscow including the freezing of its foreign exchange assets worth over $300 billion. For Russia, this is both necessity and opportunity: sanctions and the seizing of its financial assets in Western capitals have forced deep import substitution, re-direction of trade flows and innovation. With the shift to multipolarity, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/chicagopolicyreview.org\/2025\/10\/08\/brics-and-the-shift-away-from-dollar-dependence\/\">de-dollarisation trend<\/a>&nbsp;has gained momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India\u2019s Energy Minister, Hardeep Puri, recently&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/energy\/oil-gas\/india-challenges-us-rhetoric-on-russian-crude-oil-minister-puri-counters-laundromat-jibe\/articleshow\/123630740.cms\">dismissed<\/a>&nbsp;Washington\u2019s threat of secondary sanctions as \u201ccoercive unilateralism\u201d. New Delhi continues to buy discounted Russian oil, refine it and re-export the products \u2014 often to the same European markets that claim to boycott Russia. With the latest US sanctions, however, Indian refiners are adjusting their volumes of Russian purchases to avoid the risk of retribution by US authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beijing, meanwhile, has become Moscow\u2019s indispensable partner. Bilateral trade is now dominated by energy and technology exchanges settled in yuan. When asked to comment on the Trump administration\u2019s move to impose sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/page\/202510\/1346334.shtml\">said<\/a>&nbsp;on Thursday that China opposes unilateral sanctions, which lack a basis in international law and UN Security Council authorisation. There is no credible scenario where China kowtows to imperious American demands on the shape of its political and economic relations with Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This Eurasian realignment underscores the central paradox of Western sanctions: the more they are deployed, the less effective they become, as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/imf-warns-russia-sanctions-threaten-chip-away-dollar-dominance-ft-2022-03-31\/\">warned<\/a>&nbsp;by Gita Gopinath, the IMF\u2019s Chief Economist. Each new sanctions package merely accelerates the fragmentation of the global economy into competing blocs and chips away at US dollar dominance. What was once a unipolar system anchored by the Bretton Woods system, the dollar and NATO is morphing into a multipolar order driven by resource pragmatism and regional resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For President Donald Trump, the consequences are immediate and personal. With mid-term congressional elections looming, rising fuel prices could prove politically fatal. American motorists are unforgiving: $5 gasoline at the pump has sunk Presidencies before. Trump\u2019s own base \u2014 the working-class voters who rallied to his promise of \u201cenergy dominance\u201d and no more \u201cforever wars\u201d \u2014 now watch in dismay as the administration\u2019s erratic sanctions and mixed signals destabilise markets and risk escalating wars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The irony is stark. By sanctioning Russian oil companies and flirting with punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, President Trump risks replicating the inflationary spiral that he blamed his predecessor for. The Federal Reserve can do little to offset supply shocks driven by geopolitics. A tightening of global oil supply by US sanctions, compounded by Europe\u2019s moralistic policies and OPEC\u2019s cautious output stance, could send prices soaring into the 2026 election season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Long Arc of Energy&nbsp;<\/strong><em><strong>Realpolitik<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The events since the Alaska summit encapsulate the contradictions that have enveloped President Trump\u2019s nine months in power in his second term. European and UK leaders insist on their moral posturing, unable to reconcile their rhetoric of \u2018climate justice\u2019 with the material realities of industrial civilisation. Simultaneously, they claim the imperative to \u2018defeat\u2019 Russia. Trump\u2019s instinct to pursue pragmatic engagement with Russia was sound in principle \u2014 economic and energy cooperation is the surest path to peace \u2014 but his execution was undone by domestic politics and war hawks in his own administration as well as by US allies in Europe (with significant exceptions like Hungary and Slovakia which refuse to dance to Brussels\u2019s globalist tune).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Putin plays the long game. He knows that Europe\u2019s pledge to wean itself off Russian energy has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tilakdoshi\/2022\/05\/26\/watch-western-sanctions-on-russia-boomerang-a-global-energy-and-food-crisis-in-the-making\/\">boomeranged<\/a>&nbsp;on its executioners. Geography and thermodynamics are on his side. Even if Brussels cuts direct imports, Russian molecules in a fungible trade will continue to flow through intermediaries \u2014 refined, rebranded, relabelled but ultimately Russian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the proposed Budapest summit collapsed in recrimination and sanctions tighten once more, the world confronts a hard truth: there can be no stable global energy order without cooperation among its major producers. Trump\u2019s Alaska initiative, for all its flaws, at least recognised this. His subsequent retreat \u2014 under pressure from Washington\u2019s hawkish foreign-policy establishment and Brussels\u2014 marks yet another missed opportunity to bridge the East-West divide through shared material interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe\u2019s bureaucrats, meanwhile, continue to legislate against physics, demanding energy without emissions and growth without natural resources. The result is predictable: industrial decline, political unrest, establishment attacks on increasingly popular \u2018far Right\u2019 conservative opposition parties and a steady erosion of global influence. For those who still believe that the West can dictate the terms of global energy exchanges, the past three months offer a stark reminder. The world has changed; in a multipolar world, power now resides where the resources are and what battlefield realities determine, not where the moralistic lectures come from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lenin\u2019s decades have indeed happened in months if not weeks \u2014 and unless Western leaders rediscover the virtues of realism over rhetoric, of&nbsp;<em>realpolitik<\/em>&nbsp;over hypocritical moralism, the next few weeks and months may bring decades more of continued Western decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the&nbsp;<\/em>Daily Sceptic<em>\u2018s Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO<sub>2<\/sub>&nbsp;Coalition and a former contributor to Forbes. Follow him on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/tilakdoshi.substack.com\/\">Substack<\/a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/tilakdoshi\">X<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/42552745-james-curtis\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/362254155-claire-baker\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/58511728-zuriel\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/157768463-angelique-davey\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/profile\/110996203-uwe-roland-gross\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lenin\u2019s aphorism \u2014 \u201cthere are decades when nothing happens, and weeks when decades happen\u201d \u2014 has seldom felt more apt. Since the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska three months ago, global energy geopolitics has convulsed in a series of dizzying turns that have left analysts and investors alike struggling to keep pace. The meeting that was hailed as a bold attempt to initiate peace in Europe, \u2018reset\u2019 US-Russia relations and stabilise energy markets has instead opened a Pandora\u2019s box of further US sanctions on Russia and recriminations of Putin by Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":411142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the fallout of the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, as new sanctions reshape Europe's energy landscape and global geopolitics.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Trump and Putin: Energy Diplomacy's Fragile Path Ahead","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819814,691839246,691818583,691818154,691832968,691839245,691833487,691832961],"class_list":{"0":"post-411065","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy-prices-2","9":"tag-energy-suicide","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-net-zero","12":"tag-russian-president-vladimir-putin","13":"tag-russian-sanctions","14":"tag-us-president-donald-j-trump","15":"tag-war-in-ukraine","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/00AQOP1LurnIMXDa7k04xv_mVrh_Z-LrZgtlqw_cXDHRTohezeplkrRErFsJgN7yDbmQ_fi3CXCSSP541-q4JuE9TgeOGTuihkE6J5pWcznAk4vyBOpdNoiJwu3GFI4R9d-2.jpeg?fit=1819%2C917&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IW5","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":208322,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=208322","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":0},"title":"Putin Preparing for a \u201cTotal Cut off\u201d of Europe\u2019s Gas Supply","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall Europe is doubling down on their renewable energy insanity, despite Russia\u2019s President Putin threatening at any moment to permanently shut down Europe\u2019s gas supply. \u2018Prepare for total cut off\u2019 EU in crisis as Russia threatens supply \u2013 but UK has lifelineTHE EUROPEAN Union has been scrambling\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-87.png?fit=950%2C614&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-87.png?fit=950%2C614&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-87.png?fit=950%2C614&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-87.png?fit=950%2C614&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":201732,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=201732","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":1},"title":"Watch Western Sanctions on Russia Boomerang: A Global Energy and Food Crisis in The Making","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Originally posted in Forbes Tilak Doshi\u00a0ContributorI analyze energy economics and related public policy issues. We live in \u201cinteresting times\u201d as the\u00a0Chinese curse\u00a0would have it: \u201cRussia\u2019s war against Ukraine could spiral into the world\u2019s worst energy crisis since the 1970s, a top economic historian says\u201d,\u00a0Business Insider, March 4th \u201c\u2018Worst crisis since\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-56.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-56.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-56.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/0image-56.png?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210537,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210537","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":2},"title":"Europe\u2019s Economic Suicide\u2026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The trio of the Sanctions War, Green Energy Crusade and the Virus Patrol is a mortal threat to capitalist prosperity. That\u2019s already evident in the Eurozone where these policy diseases are most advanced and where the real GDP growth rate has plunged by\u00a074%\u00a0from its pre-2008 crisis rate. That\u2019s right. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-336.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-336.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-336.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-336.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-336.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":209928,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=209928","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":3},"title":"Putin Mocks EU: \u201cLooking for Culprits\u201d To Blame for Their \u201cUnreasonable and Unpredictable\u201d Energy Decisions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Putin mocks Europe: Green energy policies to blame for energy woes. European leaders make really dumb decisions, and then go blaming others. Now that Germany has rushed ahead on shutting down its baseload nuclear and coal power plants \u2013 thinking it can power the country solely with renewables -, its\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-288.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-288.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-288.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-288.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-288.png?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":217918,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=217918","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":4},"title":"Putin Responds to Truss \/ EU Energy Price Cap: \u201cKeep Freezing\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Why are UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and the European Union making such a futile stand?","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-442.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":210382,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=210382","url_meta":{"origin":411065,"position":5},"title":"Putin has Europe where he wants it","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/07\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"By Paul Homewood Meanwhile, in the Spectator: Have we reached the endgame of Vladimir Putin\u2019s energy war against the West, the point at which he turns off the gas for good? This afternoon, Gazprom announced that from Wednesday morning it will cut the quantity of gas flowing through the Nord\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/00image-91-1.png?fit=722%2C555&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/00image-91-1.png?fit=722%2C555&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/00image-91-1.png?fit=722%2C555&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/00image-91-1.png?fit=722%2C555&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=411065"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":411144,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/411065\/revisions\/411144"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/411142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=411065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=411065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=411065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}