{"id":410762,"date":"2025-10-28T18:15:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T17:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410762"},"modified":"2025-10-28T18:15:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T17:15:24","slug":"claim-increasing-heat-is-super-charging-arctic-climate-and-weather-extremes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410762","title":{"rendered":"CLAIM: Increasing heat is super-charging Arctic climate and weather extremes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From North Carolina State University and the \u201cbecause our models say-so<\/strong>\u201d department comes this press release<\/a> that is far more predictable than the climate change it claims to predict \u2013 Anthony.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By evaluating historical climate records, observational and projection data, an international team of researchers found a \u201cpushing and triggering\u201d mechanism that has driven the Arctic climate system to a new state, which will likely see consistently increased frequency and intensity of extreme events across all system components \u2013 the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere \u2013 this century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe know that mean temperatures are rising, and the Arctic is commonly considered an indicator of global changes due to its higher sensitivity to any perturbation of external and internal forcings,\u201d says Xiangdong Zhang, research professor at North Carolina State University and senior scientist at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe annual mean warming rate of the Arctic is more than three times the global average \u2013 this is known as Arctic amplification,\u201d Zhang says. \u201cBut no systematic review has been done about the interplay of warmer temperatures with the dynamics of atmosphere, ocean and sea ice in weather and climate extremes around the Arctic.\u201d Zhang is the lead author of the study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The team looked at historic temperature data and the records of extreme events in the Arctic system components, as well as CMIP6 model projections that covered a period from the present-day to the end of the century. Overall, they saw that extreme events \u2013 atmosphere and ocean heatwaves, heavy precipitation, sea ice loss and ice sheet melt \u2013 have consistently occurred across the Arctic climate system with an increased frequency and intensity since the year 2000. The CMIP6, or Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, is an international project consisting of modeling centers and groups worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe usually think about warming as a gradual, quasi-linear change of temperature over time \u2013 it slowly gets warmer everywhere,\u201d Zhang says. \u201cBut nonlinear changes occur across the entire system. The interplay between warming and the changes in atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice dynamics creates \u2018pushing and triggering\u2019 mechanisms that result in a tipping point for the climate system.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the researchers, since the year 2000 these pushing and triggering mechanisms have forced a step change, or sudden shift, in the baseline of the Arctic climate system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mechanisms in question include changes in large-scale atmosphere and ocean circulation that enhance poleward atmospheric heat and moisture transport and ocean heat transport into the Arctic. Intense cyclones and blocking high-pressure systems that obstruct the movement of other systems through the upper atmosphere further enhance warming, increasing sea ice and ice sheet temperatures and pushing the Arctic climate system to a tipping point, triggering more extremes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce there is a baseline state change in climate, we also see a change in extreme events,\u201d Zhang says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the researchers\u2019 analysis, since the year 2000 the probability of atmospheric heatwaves has increased by 20%; Atlantic Ocean layer warm events have increased by 76%; sea ice loss events have increased by 83%; and Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent has increased by 68%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPrior to the 21st century, these events were rare,\u201d Zhang says. \u201cBut with continued warming they will become the new norm, and we could see ice-free summers in the Arctic by mid-century. More work must be done to understanding the interplay of multiscale climate drivers in the Arctic, so that we can predict and plan for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study appears in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment<\/a><\/em>. Zhang is supported in part by the U.S. Department of Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The work was done by leading and early-career scientists from the U.S., Australia, Canada, China, Finland, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From North Carolina State University and the \u201cbecause our models say-so\u201d department comes this\u00a0press release\u00a0that is far more predictable than the climate change it claims to predict \u2013 Anthony.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":410765,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how Arctic climate change is triggering extreme weather events, with a focus on recent findings from North Carolina State University.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Arctic Climate Changes: Rise in Extreme Weather Events","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818605,691839147,691818056,691821072,691839146,691820346,691823916,691822982],"class_list":{"0":"post-410762","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-arctic","9":"tag-pushing-and-triggering","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-climate-model","12":"tag-cmip6-model-projections","13":"tag-greenland-ice-sheet","14":"tag-tipping-point","15":"tag-weather-and-climate-extremes","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPLcRcBwol4dKQisCGp3oKXzVDKeKc7CklnRasaQ0rfTQMuulrCGRKQMiizHys_6bW8USOCqQ-KOByIuJJKEuhJNyK59XqjoeXSd4zTwBslS9wi-iR0ZD7cmA0ytBg-1.jpeg?fit=1164%2C939&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IRc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":205994,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=205994","url_meta":{"origin":410762,"position":0},"title":"Claim: Australia\u2019s Supercomputer Gadi will Solve the Climate Crisis","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"26\/06\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Essay by Eric Worrall Because when your models can\u2019t predict the climate, what you really need is a bigger computer, right? 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