{"id":410599,"date":"2025-10-28T10:04:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T09:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410599"},"modified":"2025-10-28T10:04:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T09:04:24","slug":"this-time-socialism-is-really-going-to-work-bolivia-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410599","title":{"rendered":"This Time Socialism Is Really Going To Work, Bolivia Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Three<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0By Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Waving<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As all good true believers know, the only reason that Socialism has thus far always failed in practice is that real Socialism has never yet been implemented. And thus, we have my hometown of New York, until now the world capital of capitalism, about to put into office a self-proclaimed Socialist, or maybe Communist, to give Socialism just one more shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How could large numbers of seemingly intelligent people believe that this could work? One reason is a remarkable lack of news coverage of the economic status and trajectory of the places that avowedly practice Socialism. My mission here at Manhattan Contrarian is to fix that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consider Bolivia. Have you read anything about it lately? They had a presidential election last week, which merited some small interior articles in newspapers I read. The articles I saw before starting to research the topic barely mentioned the current economic situation and did not mention at all the economic trajectory since the Socialists took power back in 2006.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the election, which was held on October 20, the nearly 20-year Socialist government has just been voted out by a huge electoral majority. The back story is that the effort to implement Socialism had failed disastrously, as it always does. But just as important is the trajectory followed by the economy under Socialist rule. Here\u2019s the summary: first, an early period of euphoria, where Socialist prescriptions like nationalizations of large businesses (in Bolivia, particularly natural gas sector) funded extensive handouts to government supporters; then a period where the nationalized industries gradually declined until they could not support the handouts any longer; and finally, the inevitable economic crisis and collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Way back in June 2015 I had a post titled \u201cOn Socialist Death Spirals.\u201d<\/a> Here is the pithy quote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

{W]hen you look at statistics coming out of fully or largely socialized economies, . . . what you find is that the official statistics for years and decades show growth comparable to, and sometimes faster than, that in capitalist economies; and then one day, it all falls apart.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here was my analysis of how this works:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course the numbers had been fictitious all along.  There really was a gradual decline going on, but the numbers didn’t show it.  And, without knowing all the tricks [used to cook the books in Socialist countries], the main one is obvious, namely counting all or most government spending as a full addition to GDP.  Where government owns the main businesses and controls most of the distribution of resources, not to mention prices, the measure of GDP becomes more and more arbitrary.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now to the case of Bolivia. I had a series of posts about Bolivia in October and November 2019, here<\/a>, here<\/a> and here<\/a>. The occasion was a previous presidential election held on October 20 of that year. Socialist President Evo Morales was finishing his third term and running for a fourth. Unfortunately, the Bolivian Constitution limited him to three terms; but as the saying goes about Socialists, \u201cyou can vote them in, but you have to shoot them out.\u201d In September 2019, Morales had just gotten his subservient Supreme Court to invalidate the constitutional term limit as contrary to his \u201chuman rights.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the run-up to that election, on October 1, 2020, The Nation ran the expected big piece touting the spectacular success of the Socialist government, 13 years into its rule. The headline was, \u201cBolivia\u2019s Remarkable Socialist Success Story.\u201d<\/a> In my October 3, 2019 post I had some long quotes from that piece, which I will repeat here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since taking office in 2006, [President Evo] Morales, a former coca grower and labor activist, has nationalized key industries and used aggressive social spending to reduce extreme poverty by more than half, build a nation with modern infrastructure, and lower Bolivia\u2019s Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, by a stunning 19 percent. For much of Bolivia\u2019s majority-indigenous population in particular, his tenure marks the first time that they\u2019ve lived above poverty and benefited from their country\u2019s tremendous natural resources.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s now clear that a redistributionist agenda has not been ruinous to Bolivia\u2019s economy. Far from it: During the Morales era, the economy has grown at twice the rate of the Latin American average, inflation has been stable, the government has amassed substantial savings, and an enterprising and optimistic indigenous middle class has emerged. . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Morales also dramatically increased social spending. He poured money into building roads, schools, and hospitals, an expansion of infrastructure that was particularly transformative in the countryside. And he established modest but deeply popular cash transfer programs. . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But my post then asked if, even if official government statistics seemed to be showing success, there might be another perspective on what was going on. I found a piece at Bloomberg from February 2019, headline \u201cSo Much Gas, So Few Allies Spells Trouble in Populist Nation.\u201d<\/a> The gist was that Bolivia had long been the only big natural gas producer in its region, which had enabled it to charge premium prices to places like Brazil and Argentina. But those countries were gradually figuring out ways to access cheaper supplies. Oh, and Bolivia\u2019s gas production was also sharply dropping due to lack of investment under the socialist government:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Basically, there\u2019s a new game in town that has broken the Bolivian monopoly on natural gas in South America,” said Fernando Valle, an oil and gas analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “When you have super high margins somewhere, someone is eventually going to find a way to go into that market and undercut you. That\u2019s what\u2019s happening to the Bolivians now.” . . . In 2018, Bolivia\u2019s gas exports fell by about 30 percent, drastically impacting the government\u2019s revenue and the entrance of foreign currency . . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The cracks had already begun to appear, even if the cheerleaders at the Nation didn\u2019t choose to see them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the October 20, 2019 election, returns on election night appeared to show Morales going down to defeat. But then the vote count was stopped, with no reason given. The next morning, Morales\u2019 people announced that in the final tally their man had won just enough votes to be re-elected without a run-off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was an immediate explosion of protests over the election result. Morales called in the OAS to perform a review, and they issued a Report<\/a> in November. My November 11, 2019 post <\/a>captured the flavor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[T]he [OAS] Report makes clear that the efforts of Morales and his people to rig the election were remarkably obvious, crude and amateurish. . . . Really, Evo, you should have been flunked out of Evil Dictator School for having learned so little about how to properly rig an election.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within weeks, Morales had resigned. Bolivia went through a year of turmoil, leading up to a re-run of the election in October 2020. The victor was Morales\u2019 Socialist side-kick Luis Arce, who has held the presidency since then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the Socialists have had another five years to fix the problems and get their program to work. How has that gone? The key industry in Bolivia for funding the Socialist dream has been natural gas production. OilPrice.com had an article on August 28<\/a>, with data sourced to Rystad Energy. The chart includes data from 2014 to 2025, and projections to 2033:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph
Bolivia gas production, consumption, and exports<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Production has fallen by nearly half since 2014, with declines accelerating in the past few years. I guess that every dollar you reinvest in producing gas is one dollar less that\u2019s available to buy votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A more comprehensive picture of the Bolivian economy can be found in an article at the Foundation for Economic Education from August 14<\/a>. The headline is \u201cCrisis in Bolivia?\u201d Excerpt:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolivia\u2019s economy is on the brink of collapse. . . . Facing reelection, [President] Arce refused to cut public spending, reduce subsidies, or liberalize the economy. Instead, the government imposed price controls, stricter currency regulations, and restrictions on importers\u2019 access to dollars. This led to severe shortages of fertilizers, medicines, fuel, cleaning supplies, and food. Prices skyrocketed, and distrust in the boliviano grew. People rushed to exchange bolivianos for US dollars, which were scarce. The central bank imposed further restrictions, pushing demand to the informal market\u2014common in countries like Venezuela or Argentina. Two exchange rates emerged. . . . Given the current trajectory, Bolivia could be headed for a crisis similar to Argentina\u2019s in 2001 or even Venezuela\u2019s. . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, it\u2019s the same old story. According to the latest data from the IMF<\/a>, Bolivia\u2019s per capital GDP in 2025 is $4,585. By contrast, the U.S. per capita GDP is given as $89,599.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first round of the recent presidential election, held back in August, the MAS party of Morales and Arce got just 3.2% of the vote. That\u2019s what they call \u201cbeyond the margin of fraud,\u201d and it looks like they completely gave up on rigging the election. The run-off, held October 20, was between candidates described by NPR here<\/a> as a \u201ccentrist\u201d and a \u201cconservative.\u201d The \u201ccentrist,\u201d Rodrigo Paz, won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NPR says that voters were \u201coutraged by the country’s economic crisis and frustrated after 20 years of rule by the Movement Toward Socialism party.\u201d<\/em> NPR also notes that Paz had \u201cgained traction among working-class and rural voters disillusioned with the unbridled spending\u201d<\/em> of the Morales\/Arce\/MAS regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paz takes over in a very difficult situation handed to him by his Socialist predecessors. In the first instance he will have to withdraw the pervasive handouts that the Socialists have put in place. That is not going to be popular. At least Bolivia didn\u2019t have to shoot the Socialists out of office. But they have a very deep hole to dig out of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As all good true believers know, the only reason that Socialism has thus far always failed in practice is that real Socialism has never yet been implemented. And thus we have my home town of New York, until now the world capital of capitalism, about to put into office a self-proclaimed Socialist, or maybe Communist, to give Socialism just one more shot.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":410603,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how Bolivia's 20-year socialist government collapsed, fleeing from economic reality and failing to deliver on its promises.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Socialism in Bolivia: A Historical Failure or New Hope?","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691839139,691820345,691836301,691818867,691819919,691819543,691834853,691839140],"class_list":{"0":"post-410599","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-bolivia","9":"tag-communist","10":"tag-natural-gas-production","11":"tag-new-york","12":"tag-socialism","13":"tag-socialist","14":"tag-socialist-government","15":"tag-socialist-president-evo-morales","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMbYm6X2_BmJWY4ZctCGo_IZx_muA2-HjT9Q10ZyvXsCZVt244Me794Tri0MMRDVwjKmC147-LpdQSn1oBJ66kqhK73fMzJpZzn2pX29UtE40Aa5XGipflvaaH-9VLq-1.jpeg?fit=1661%2C933&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IOz","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":213195,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=213195","url_meta":{"origin":410599,"position":0},"title":"Claim: A Total Victory for Socialism Could Save Us from Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/08\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Of course, it is possible a world dominated by global socialism would be like Cuba \u2013 a weakly industrial society, where medieval serfs suffer under an oppressive centralised regime.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-409.png?fit=720%2C336&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-409.png?fit=720%2C336&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-409.png?fit=720%2C336&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/08\/image-409.png?fit=720%2C336&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":332806,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=332806","url_meta":{"origin":410599,"position":1},"title":"Socialism\u2019s very quiet revolution","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In his 1949 book, The Road Ahead: America\u2019s Creeping Revolution, John T. 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