{"id":410591,"date":"2025-10-28T09:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-28T08:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410591"},"modified":"2025-10-28T09:11:03","modified_gmt":"2025-10-28T08:11:03","slug":"recent-global-warming-mostly-due-to-natural-factors-new-study-finds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410591","title":{"rendered":"Recent Global Warming Mostly Due To Natural Factors, New Study Finds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0P Gosselin<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent warming is mostly due to natural climate\u00a0factors\u2026only 1\/3\u00a0is attributable to the rising GHG concentrations.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
CO2\u2019s impact on warming is likely wildly overstated.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A recent paper by Ad Huijser, \u201cGlobal Warming and the \u2018impossible\u2019 Radiation Imbalance<\/em><\/a>,\u201d published in Science of Climate Change<\/em>, presents a detailed analysis that challenges the widely held assumption that rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are the sole, or even the primary, drivers of recent global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hat-tip Report 24<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By comparing observed energy trends with theoretical forcings, the study concludes that natural factors play a significant and dominant role in the warming observed since the mid-1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Discrepancy: GHG Forcing vs. Observed Warming<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study scrutinizes the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, which attributes all observed warming solely to human-caused GHG emissions. Using satellite data from the CERES program and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) data from the ARGO float program, the author analyzed the Earth\u2019s Top of Atmosphere (TOA) radiation imbalance\u2014the net energy flux into the Earth\u2019s thermal system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Natural factors dominate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central finding is that the assumed radiative forcing trend from GHGs is insufficient to account for the magnitude of the observed TOA radiation imbalance. The discrepancy suggests that another, significant factor must be involved in heating the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysis points strongly toward natural forcings, specifically a long-term increase in incoming shortwave solar radiation, as the significant, dominant factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper\u2019s findings:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two-thirds of the observed global warming must be attributed to natural factors that increase incoming solar radiation. This is due to a natural forcing trend of about 0.035 W\/m2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only one-third is attributable to the rising GHG concentrations. This is due to a GHG-related forcing of about 0.019 W\/m2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This increase in incoming solar energy is likely due to natural changes in factors like cloud cover and surface albedo (the reflectivity of the Earth\u2019s surface). The study argues that the observed radiation imbalance correlates strongly with these natural processes, appearing largely unrelated to GHGs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implications for Future Climate Policy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study\u2019s findings show the planet\u2019s warming is largely being driven by external factors (increased solar input) and not solely by an internal atmospheric resistance (GHGs), thus implying a much lower climate sensitivity<\/strong> than that suggested by most IPCC-endorsed Global Circulation Models (GCMs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This new paper questions the alarmist claims about \u201cheat in the pipeline\u201d and suggests that future warming will be driven by natural forcings as long as they are acting, rather than historical emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It underscores the importance of fully accounting for natural variability, especially in solar input<\/strong>, when evaluating both historical warming trends and the effectiveness of future climate mitigation policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recent warming is mostly due to natural climate\u00a0factors\u2026only 1\/3\u00a0is attributable to the rising GHG concentrations.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":410596,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore how natural factors, not just greenhouse gases, may be driving recent global warming in this insightful study analysis.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"New Study: Natural Factors Drive Recent Global Warming","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691835982,691818087,691839136,691839137,691820367,691839138,691823095],"class_list":{"0":"post-410591","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-global-greenhouse-gas-ghg","9":"tag-global-warming","10":"tag-natural-climate-factors","11":"tag-science-of-climate-change","12":"tag-solar-radiation","13":"tag-toa-radiation-imbalance","14":"tag-top-of-the-atmosphere-toa","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF8mw475x_kKox_uOT-d9tN-0yi3b11eQs1YG23HuX48Wyt4zst5pIzmpHeCA5M_b_58ZWnoNdb3rO-zkmJ1SNTdHndoCpuLHAJPscqgcBvuPoPQ8yH_T0MnMQTwsp.jpeg?fit=1622%2C897&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IOr","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":176691,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=176691","url_meta":{"origin":410591,"position":0},"title":"Global Warming Theory and the Tests It Fails 2021","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/12\/2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The updating of this previous post is timely following on Dr. William Happer\u2019s additional test of Global Warming Theory, the notion that rising CO2 causes dangerous warming of earth\u2019s climate. A synopsis of that presentation is at\u00a0Climate Change and CO2 Not a Problem.\u00a0 For the purpose of this discussion I\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/003590563286_cff83d3344_o.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/003590563286_cff83d3344_o.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/003590563286_cff83d3344_o.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":329768,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329768","url_meta":{"origin":410591,"position":1},"title":"The Battle of The climate Hypotheses: The Green-House Gas Forcer vs. The Winter Gatekeeper Round 1.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"What drives climate change? 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A large part of this blindness comes from constraints dictated by the IPCC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming)\"","block_context":{"text":"AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=agw-anthropogenic-global-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/0wp4555644.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/410591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=410591"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/410591\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":410598,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/410591\/revisions\/410598"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/410596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=410591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=410591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=410591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}