{"id":410434,"date":"2025-10-27T18:15:18","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T17:15:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410434"},"modified":"2025-10-27T18:15:20","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T17:15:20","slug":"net-zero-2093","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=410434","title":{"rendered":"Net Zero 2093"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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From The Honest Broker<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Roger Pielke Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Aerial
Source:\u00a0DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2025<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Each year, the Norwegian company DNV (Det Norske Veritas \u2014 The Norwegian Truth in English) publishes a global Energy Transition Outlook (ETO). I appreciate the DNV Outlook not because I always agree with it, but because they are transparent in their methods and update their work annually, identifying how assumptions and projections have changed over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DNV also publishes a projection that they believe to be the \u201cmost likely\u201d future trajectory based on what we know today, rather than relying on conditional scenarios. They explain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The ETO is a simulation-based forecast that reflects how the energy system behaves under a most-likely scenario. It is not a best-case pathway or a cost- optimized solution.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

There are strengths and weakness to both system and scenario approaches for projecting the future. DNV is fairly unique in its use of a systems approach to produce a \u201cmost likely\u201d projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DNV acknowledges that a lot has changed since its 2024 report, but maintain that the global energy systems is on the brink of irreversible change:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Faced with these developments, a casual observer might conclude that the energy transition is stalled or in reverse. That is most definitely not the case. The energy transition is rolling on.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Today I share 10 of the figures of their just-released 2025 ETO<\/a> that I find particularly interesting. There is much more in the full report, which I encourage any energy nerd to read closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before getting to the figures, it is important to understand how DNV characterizes its approach:<\/p>\n\n\n\n