{"id":409985,"date":"2025-10-24T10:54:12","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T08:54:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409985"},"modified":"2025-10-24T10:54:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T08:54:14","slug":"irina-slav-when-in-doubt-complicate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409985","title":{"rendered":"IRINA SLAV: When in doubt, complicate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Irina Slav on energy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Irina Slav<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf a robust, resilient, sustainable and innovative economy is our goal, then dogmatically clinging to our existing business models, whatever their past successes, is not the solution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The profound words of wisdom come from EC president Ursula von der Leyen in a letter to member states. The goal of the letter is to appease those among them worried that a planned expansion of the carbon market in the EU would hurt people financially.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The letter was quoted copiously <\/a>by Politico, which sought to help President von der Leyen in her reassurance effort, also featuring the heartfelt statement that \u201cno one should be able to submit our economic and social fabric to so much tension that it breaks down.\u201d Which is absolutely hilarious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The planned expansion of the carbon market, also known as the Emissions Trading System, would cover, in addition to heavy industries, transport and buildings, meaning heating. The less green your car and your heating system, the more you pay for both, per the plan. Per reality, higher prices are not going to be welcome. So von der Leyen has promised to cut carbon costs before the expanded market comes into effect in what must be a first in the history of trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat we need is a transition that is just and fair, whereby especially vulnerable households, small companies and regions that are most exposed to structural changes are protected and supported,\u201d von der Leyen also said in her letter, apparently thinking that stringing together buzzwords \u2014 or what passes for buzzwords in Brussels \u2014 would be enough for Eastern and Central European countries to calm down and say \u201cThat\u2019s all right, then.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When it comes to actual measures to ensure the ETS expansion does not plunge even more people into poverty, there is precious little to report. Per Bloomberg<\/a>, \u201cThe commission will enhance the role of a reserve pot of permits under ETS2, known as the Market Stability Reserve, von der Leyen said. The bloc\u2019s executive branch is also exploring the possibility of front-loading auctions of permits, which could also curb price rises. The European Investment Bank would play a role, she added.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the Commission doesn\u2019t know what the hell it\u2019s doing but it\u2019s doing it anyway. Or at least talking about it. It\u2019s complicated. The EU likes complicated. It helps the people running the show pretend they know what they are doing. It\u2019s a fun show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The von der Leyen camp in Brussels has been working tirelessly to convince the EU that we need to reduce emissions more and faster, even if it costs a lot \u2014 and it will. Since no one would do it voluntarily, they came up with the idea of extending the ETS, which hitherto only hurt power generators and industries such as steel and cement, among others<\/a>, to start also hurting the transport industry and everyone who uses a mode of transportation with an engine and heats their home. Inevitably, the pain will cascade throughout the economy because goods and services use transport to get from provide to consumer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The word \u201churt\u201d is not an exaggeration, by the way. You know the claims that coal power has become more expensive than wind and solar in Europe? That\u2019s because of the ETS. You know how heavy industries are complaining about losing competitiveness? That\u2019s also because of the ETS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No wonder, then, that the poorer members of the EU spoke out against the ETS expansion earlier this month, writing their own letter <\/a>to the Commission, in which they asked for a delay in the ETS expansion until 2030. Not that it would make any difference, but it\u2019s a start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe 2027 launch of ETS2 risks triggering unintended social, economic and political disruptions, particularly in member states with higher exposure to energy poverty,\u201d the authors of that letter wrote in a rare instance of truth being spoken at the higher echelons of power in the EU. What they got in return, was words that mean nothing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are some more of those words from the Politico report: \u201cFor the EU\u2019s economy to take its rightful place in the global economy, we must be among those who are driving the response to the challenges of our time,\u201d Ursula of Brussels wrote. The challenges? \u201cThe scientific reality that we are increasingly putting our prosperity and our social models at risk, while our communities risk becoming uninhabitable.\u201d I don\u2019t know where that last part comes from. It\u2019s not like we\u2019re losing habitat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then come the so-called concessions. One of these is getting some of the planned emission cuts from\u2026 international carbon credit trading. Not a lot, just 3%, but it\u2019s the thought that counts, I\u2019m sure. Another thought that surely counts is the upcoming revision of emission cuts under the \u2014 brace yourself \u2014 the LULUCF regulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

LULUCF <\/a>stands for land use, land use change, and forestry and \u201caims to enhance governance, promote transparency, and strengthen the link between climate mitigation and environmental protection measures.\u201d I apologise for quoting EU documentation to you when you have done nothing to deserve it. Basically, the idea is to turn the land into a carbon sink because, as we know, emissions must be cut at all costs. Well, almost all costs. Unrest in the East does not seem to be an acceptable option, hence the assurances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One more thought that would probably count if we ever see it, is Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra\u2019s proposals for carbon cost cut measures\u2026 which were supposed to be made public on Tuesday but weren\u2019t, at least not anywhere where I could find them, including on his X account. I\u2019m not holding my breath for any major concessions from Hoekstra. He is a \u201cat all costs\u201d type of man. And he\u2019s about to become an even unhappier man than he already is because China is so not committing<\/a> to cutting its emissions by 200% by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s what\u2019s going to happen. The Commission will delay the ETS2 as they lovingly call it, just like it will almost certainly delay the 2035 ICE car ban. The Commission will do everything it can to avoid an Eastern European revolt against the transition. Then again, they might just try to override the quite legitimate concerns of the East in what would ultimately hasten the end of a political and economic structure that has become a bloated pool of incompetence, geopolitical rabies, and destructiveness. \u201cFabricati Diem, Pvncs.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cIf a robust, resilient, sustainable and innovative economy is our goal, then dogmatically clinging to our existing business models, whatever their past successes, is not the solution.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":409988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818560,691839031,691839032,691839033,691829858,691838941,691827234,691820837,691825193,691839034],"class_list":{"0":"post-409985","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-carbon-market","9":"tag-emissions-trading-system","10":"tag-ets-emissions-trading-system","11":"tag-ets2","12":"tag-european-commission-president-ursula-von-der-leyen","13":"tag-european-investment-bank","14":"tag-european-union-eu","15":"tag-green-transition","16":"tag-greenhouse-gas-ghg","17":"tag-lulucf","19":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQNNnbP_zg7PeDmjdjiejkugUj9ZLUF3_i-QhRHZ1LImufXeAm1qUXWowbIe_qGXmXZXMyAcUPhadmG36fCTsdVpemlt_RaJZpyK36eKC16Ka0Lu86L-QPWBXmcApQ-1.jpeg?fit=1396%2C933&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IEF","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":393096,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393096","url_meta":{"origin":409985,"position":0},"title":"China\u2019s Solar Sector Has Slashed 87,000 Jobs Since\u00a02024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Over 40 solar firms have delisted, gone bankrupt or been sold since 2024.","rel":"","context":"In \"China\"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNYAt4mIYamAARs9n4irXtC85NHYSnYfYgzLnoLVWXWJUJPE2jwJVP8vLCMr2UDsQGgvYrj7UblKXZJmFSGezv6PHAhfLGw7n2RG4OJVqjubi_q0zXGdpM1_hZEliOL77RIsIqGVCkJM32SuS6ClmDUxS0hgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNYAt4mIYamAARs9n4irXtC85NHYSnYfYgzLnoLVWXWJUJPE2jwJVP8vLCMr2UDsQGgvYrj7UblKXZJmFSGezv6PHAhfLGw7n2RG4OJVqjubi_q0zXGdpM1_hZEliOL77RIsIqGVCkJM32SuS6ClmDUxS0hgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNYAt4mIYamAARs9n4irXtC85NHYSnYfYgzLnoLVWXWJUJPE2jwJVP8vLCMr2UDsQGgvYrj7UblKXZJmFSGezv6PHAhfLGw7n2RG4OJVqjubi_q0zXGdpM1_hZEliOL77RIsIqGVCkJM32SuS6ClmDUxS0hgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNYAt4mIYamAARs9n4irXtC85NHYSnYfYgzLnoLVWXWJUJPE2jwJVP8vLCMr2UDsQGgvYrj7UblKXZJmFSGezv6PHAhfLGw7n2RG4OJVqjubi_q0zXGdpM1_hZEliOL77RIsIqGVCkJM32SuS6ClmDUxS0hgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNYAt4mIYamAARs9n4irXtC85NHYSnYfYgzLnoLVWXWJUJPE2jwJVP8vLCMr2UDsQGgvYrj7UblKXZJmFSGezv6PHAhfLGw7n2RG4OJVqjubi_q0zXGdpM1_hZEliOL77RIsIqGVCkJM32SuS6ClmDUxS0hgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":327762,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=327762","url_meta":{"origin":409985,"position":1},"title":"EVs: The Reckoning Begins","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/05\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This is a fundamental issue for EVs. The only way to get people to buy electric vehicles is to subsidize them but subsidizing them leads to tax losses elsewhere.","rel":"","context":"In \"electric vehicles (EVs)\"","block_context":{"text":"electric vehicles (EVs)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-vehicles-evs"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-67-1.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-67-1.jpeg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-67-1.jpeg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/OIG-67-1.jpeg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":306733,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306733","url_meta":{"origin":409985,"position":2},"title":"Burn, Hollywood, Burn","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Irina Slav on energy\u00a0Substack is described as \u201cAll things energy. 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