{"id":409206,"date":"2025-10-20T10:47:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T08:47:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409206"},"modified":"2025-10-20T10:47:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T08:47:16","slug":"is-the-biofuel-boom-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409206","title":{"rendered":"Is the Biofuel Boom Over?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OilPrice.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Felicity Bradstock<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"An<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Just last year, several oil majors looked to be betting big on biofuels, but some momentum seems to have been lost in project development in recent months. Despite a growing demand for biofuels, as several hard-to-abate industries strive to decarbonise, greater sectoral uncertainty and other challenges have led the rollout of new projects to stall in several parts of the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the end of 2024, several oil majors had increased investments in biofuel development, with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). At the time, there were 43 projects expected to be operational by 2030, according to Rystad Energy. Oil and gas firms such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Shell had all committed to biofuel production, with a production capacity pipeline of 286,000 barrels per day<\/a>(bpd).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With aviation contributing around 2 percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally, the sector is searching for ways to decarbonise operations, with many airlines introducing SAF targets for 2030 and beyond. SAF production mainly comes from waste and residue, like used cooking oil or organic crops. Although it still emits carbon dioxide, as it is produced using waste, it is considered less polluting throughout its entire lifecycle. The benefit of using SAF is that airlines do not have to invest in new fleets or retrofitting activities, as most aircraft engines can use SAF alongside traditional jet fuel in their existing engines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While SAF is generally more expensive to produce than conventional jet fuel, several regions of the world have introduced minimum targets on SAF use, which has encouraged an accelerated uptake of the fuel. For example, the European Union requires a minimum of 2 percent of SAF<\/a> use in aviation by 2025. Biofuels can also be used for other activities, such as in heating and electricity generation, and in fertilisers for food production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The OECD expects the global use of biofuels to grow by 0.9 percent a year<\/a> over the next decade, much lower than the 3.3 percent annual growth seen in recent years. The OECD forecasts that biofuel growth will slow in high-income countries due to stagnating fuel demand resulting from electric vehicle adoption and weaker policy support. However, the demand in middle-income countries is expected to offset the slowdown, with biofuel consumption expected to increase by 1.7% annually across these countries, with Brazil, Indonesia, and India driving demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As demand eases, some companies are backtracking on their commitment to biofuels. In September, Shell announced it would not be moving ahead with plans to develop a biofuels factoring in the Netherlands. The oil major initially paused work<\/a> on the project in July following a review that deemed the facility was too expensive and \u201cinsufficiently competitive\u201d. The plant in Rotterdam was expected to be one of the biggest in Europe to transform waste into SAF and biodiesel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is expected to hinder the European Union\u2019s target of decarbonising its aviation sector. It also reflects Shell\u2019s recent move away from a net-zero commitment, following the reduction of investment<\/a> in green energy and cleantech in favour of fossil fuels. Shell\u2019s downstream, renewables and energy solutions president, Machteld de Haan, said<\/a> of the move, \u201cAs we evaluated market dynamics and the cost of completion, it became clear that the project would be insufficiently competitive to meet our customers\u2019 need for affordable, low carbon products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Ashley Kelty, an analyst at Panmure Liberum, said<\/a> it was \u201canother nail in the ideological coffin for SAF and biofuels\u201d. He added, \u201cIt means that SAF is going to be more expensive, limited in supply and therefore difficult for airlines to justify using.\u201d Biofuels were expected to be a major part of Shell\u2019s anticipated energy diversification plan, as part of its shift to green. However, the recent move demonstrates its commitment to its fossil fuels business and could signal the beginning of a move away from biofuels across the oil and gas sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An August analysis<\/a> by Reuters showed that out of 165 SAF projects over the past 12 years, only 36 have come to fruition. Among those 36, just 10 projects, or 6 percent of the total, have reported producing commercial volumes of SAF. The analysis found that if all the pending projects announced by airlines reached their maximum potential, it would only add 12 billion gallons of SAF production, or around 10 percent of what\u2019s needed to achieve the net-zero target. Several airlines have blamed the oil and gas industry for backtracking on its biofuel commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was great optimism around the future of biofuels in 2024, with a strong project pipeline and several years of production and demand growth. However, as some oil and gas companies backtrack on their commitments to biofuel production and several projects are delayed not yet started, there is greater uncertainty in the sector. The lack of meaningful commitment to biofuels, particularly SAF, could make it more difficult to achieve decarbonisation targets in the coming years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Felicity Bradstock<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Felicity Bradstock is a freelance writer specialising in Energy and Finance. She has a Master\u2019s in International Development from the University of Birmingham, UK.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Just last year, several oil majors looked to be betting big on biofuels, but some momentum seems to have been lost in project development in recent months. Despite a growing demand for biofuels, as several hard-to-abate industries strive to decarbonise, greater sectoral uncertainty and other challenges have led the rollout of new projects to stall in several parts of the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":409209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the challenges and setbacks in the biofuel sector, as oil majors reassess commitments amid growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Are Biofuels Losing Traction in the Aviation Industry?","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691820609,691829997,691818154,691838947,691823039],"class_list":["post-409206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-biofuels","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-net-zero","tag-oil-majors","tag-sustainable-aviation-fuel-saf","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMt4g02lNpuY1P5bohH5VJ1td31DnLlvopIzwqW0O13nGPsjBbId4r9RN4TpX0VSw4oAQUr8TdYbu2gpaxBvGA7IuVv3AYV5s9QN_UjBIUJy7t0DjHfpHG6p_7Pqd7WwuqXXdoxCFksN8Gt_fFvZn94f_Jr.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Is6","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":400250,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=400250","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":0},"title":"Shell abandons huge biofuel project in Netherlands","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"British oil giant Shell announced Wednesday it has abandoned construction of one of Europe's largest biofuel plants in the Netherlands, as it focuses on its fossil fuels business.","rel":"","context":"In \"Europe's largest biofuel plants\"","block_context":{"text":"Europe's largest biofuel plants","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=europes-largest-biofuel-plants"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0the-shellenberger-chronicles-part-three-do-radical-environmentalists-mean-well-get-serious-1.jpg?fit=844%2C568&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0the-shellenberger-chronicles-part-three-do-radical-environmentalists-mean-well-get-serious-1.jpg?fit=844%2C568&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0the-shellenberger-chronicles-part-three-do-radical-environmentalists-mean-well-get-serious-1.jpg?fit=844%2C568&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0the-shellenberger-chronicles-part-three-do-radical-environmentalists-mean-well-get-serious-1.jpg?fit=844%2C568&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340069,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340069","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":1},"title":"The Cascade of Failures in the Biofuel Industry: A Case of Economic and Environmental Mismanagement","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/19\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The biofuel industry, once heralded as the golden child of renewable energy, is now facing a series of catastrophic failures that underscore its inherent inefficiency and lack of economic viability. The dream of turning agricultural products into clean fuel has been shattered by the harsh realities of economics, technology, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"biofuel industry\"","block_context":{"text":"biofuel industry","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=biofuel-industry"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OIG3.o3O9KJOUSWKj.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OIG3.o3O9KJOUSWKj.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OIG3.o3O9KJOUSWKj.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/OIG3.o3O9KJOUSWKj.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":335464,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335464","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":2},"title":"Shell to pause Dutch biofuels project as market\u00a0sags","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/04\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There is no viable commercial market for biofuels. It only survives because of government subsidies and diktat.","rel":"","context":"In \"Dutch biofuels project\"","block_context":{"text":"Dutch biofuels project","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dutch-biofuels-project"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0177680720-56a2ad2a3df78cf77278b56e.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0177680720-56a2ad2a3df78cf77278b56e.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0177680720-56a2ad2a3df78cf77278b56e.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0177680720-56a2ad2a3df78cf77278b56e.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0177680720-56a2ad2a3df78cf77278b56e.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429457,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429457","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":3},"title":"Ethanol Mandates are Dead, Long Live SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A bill has been introduced which could drive up US food prices, for the benefit of EU greens.","rel":"","context":"In \"Agricultur\"","block_context":{"text":"Agricultur","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=agricultur"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG3.lFU_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG3.lFU_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG3.lFU_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG3.lFU_.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":242942,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=242942","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":4},"title":"Al Jazeera: We are \u201cgreening\u201d ourselves to extinction","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Apocalypse investors are pushing fake climate solutions on us that are making climate change worse.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-95.png?fit=1200%2C732&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-95.png?fit=1200%2C732&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-95.png?fit=1200%2C732&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-95.png?fit=1200%2C732&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-95.png?fit=1200%2C732&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":262181,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262181","url_meta":{"origin":409206,"position":5},"title":"Right, New York Times, Biofuels Are Bad for the Environment","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent guest op-ed in\u00a0The New York Times\u00a0identifies some of the problems with biofuels that make them much less environmentally friendly than their promoters claim. The most common biofuels in the United States are ethanol and biodiesel, refined primarily from corn and soybeans, respectively.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/01628510465_biofuel-1600x900-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/01628510465_biofuel-1600x900-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/01628510465_biofuel-1600x900-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/01628510465_biofuel-1600x900-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/01628510465_biofuel-1600x900-1.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409206","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=409206"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409206\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":409212,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/409206\/revisions\/409212"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/409209"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=409206"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=409206"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=409206"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}