{"id":408184,"date":"2025-10-14T18:06:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T16:06:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408184"},"modified":"2025-10-14T18:06:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T16:06:11","slug":"the-end-of-paris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408184","title":{"rendered":"The End of\u00a0Paris?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Image<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Scepticism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Robin Guenier<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A comparison of the 30 countries that emit more than 0.5% of global greenhouse (GHG) emissions (see the European Commission\u2019s emissions database i<\/sup><\/a>) with the UN\u2019s Nationally Determined Contributions Registry ii<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 reveals that 21 of them failed to register updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as required by Article 3 of the 2015 Paris Agreement iii<\/sup><\/a>, even after the deadline had been extended from February to September 2025. Yet these countries account for 57% of global emissions, while the 9 countries that\u00a0did<\/em>\u00a0register an updated NDC account for just 25%. What\u2019s more, with the United States (accounting for 11% of emissions) now withdrawing from the Paris Agreement iv<\/sup><\/a>, that figure falls to only 14%, leaving 71% of emissions effectively uncommitted. This undermines one of the\u00a0raisons d\u2019\u00eatre<\/em>\u00a0of the \u2018landmark\u2019 Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Agreement was an attempt by the West and the UN to recover from the debacle of the UN\u2019s fifteenth Conference of the Parties (COP15) in Copenhagen in 2009. It was a debacle because EU and US negotiators had hoped to persuade the big developing countries to accept the emission reduction obligations of developed countries. But they were humiliatingly defeated when developing countries refused to budge. This problem was reinforced as, in succeeding COPs, developing countries continued to insist they would not accept binding reduction commitments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To break this deadlock, the UN proposed a completely new approach for COP21 to be held in Paris in 2015. The plan was that two key innovations would be introduced: (1) an aim to hold global average temperatures to \u2018well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels<\/em>\u2019; and (2) a methodology whereby countries would individually determine how they would reduce emissions augmented by a periodic review when each country\u2019s reduction plans would be steadily scaled up; the so-called \u2018ratcheting\u2019 mechanism. These proposals were both agreed; and the Agreement, regarded as an important breakthrough, was widely praised.v<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But both innovations have failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, if the 2018 IPCC Special Report (para C1)vi<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0got it right, there\u2019s no possibility that the \u2018well below 2\u00baC<\/em>\u2019 aim will be achieved. This is why: the Special Report recommended that, to limit \u2018global warming to below 2\u00b0C<\/em>\u2019 \u2013 i.e. to achieve the Paris Agreement\u2019s \u2018well below 2\u00baC<\/em>\u2019 target (Article 2.1 (a)) \u2013 global emissions should \u2018decline by about 25% from 2010 levels by 2030<\/em>\u2019. Therefore, as 2010\u2019s global CO2 emissions were 34.0 Gigatonnes (Gt), they\u2019d have to come down to about 25.5 Gt by 2030 to meet the target. But the world\u2019s 8 largest emitters\u00a0(<\/em>China, the USA, India, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, Brazil and Saudi Arabia) together already emit more than 25.5 Gt (see Endnote 1) \u2013 and all are likely to increase (or at best stabilise) their emissions over the next five years. Therefore, warming of at least 2\u00baC is a certainty. And that\u2019s true even if every other country in the world reduces its emissions radically by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, as shown in the first paragraph above, the Paris Agreement\u2019s \u2018ratcheting\u2019 mechanism \u2013 the other innovation \u2013 is clearly not working.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this makes it hard to avoid the conclusion that the Paris Agreement has failed \u2013 and, without Paris, what hope remains for the UN\u2019s climate change campaign?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robin Guenier October 2025<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Endnotes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

i<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu\/report_2025?vis=ghgtot#emissions_table<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ii<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/unfccc.int\/NDCREG<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

iii<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/english_paris_agreement.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

iv<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/presidential-actions\/2025\/01\/putting-america-first-in-international-environmental-agreements\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

v<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/344224160_Paris_Agreement<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

vi<\/a><\/sup> https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/spm\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A comparison of the 30 countries that emit more than 0.5% of global greenhouse (GHG) emissions (see the European Commission\u2019s emissions database) with the UN\u2019s Nationally Determined Contributions Registry\u00a0reveals that 21 of them failed to register updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as required by Article 3 of the 2015 Paris Agreement, even after the deadline had been extended from February to September 2025. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":408187,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the failures of the Paris Agreement as major emitters hesitate to act. Can we still combat climate change effectively?","jetpack_seo_html_title":"The Paris Agreement: A Failed Hope for Climate Action","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691838803,691820974,691838802,691838800,691818087,691833142,691820492,691838801],"class_list":["post-408184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-below-2c","tag-co2-emissions","tag-emission-reduction-2","tag-global-greenhouse-ghg-emissions","tag-global-warming","tag-nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs","tag-paris-agreement","tag-uns-fifteenth-conference-of-the-parties-cop15","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQPluMKe4OA4YE-gOvDPk9E36GD-xfpWqermNvH7hie1Oqmo8xuzL6VSM9OMjIV1TczL4gVhjPU-3BYkPS42nLt9jgOfvJeg2EvRsRqb9CDqC2twLfRLmt73q7CuLsxE-1.jpeg?fit=1714%2C968&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1IbC","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":291517,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=291517","url_meta":{"origin":408184,"position":0},"title":"Outcome Of COP 28 \u2013 Just The Facts","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The 28th\u00a0Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 13, 2023. 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