{"id":406727,"date":"2025-10-05T15:35:14","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T13:35:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406727"},"modified":"2025-10-05T15:36:17","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T13:36:17","slug":"claim-renewable-australia-will-have-no-problem-with-zero-generation-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406727","title":{"rendered":"Claim: Renewable Australia will Have No Problem with Zero Generation Days"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essay by<\/strong> Eric Worrall<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new study suggests blackouts will only happen sometimes, if we build enough batteries and overcapacity, and a hydrogen export industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

What is \u2018dunkelflaute\u2019? And how will a new long-duration battery change Australia\u2019s energy grid?
Limondale project designed to store excess renewable power during day and dispatch when demand is high<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Petra Stock<\/a> Mon 29 Sep 2025 10.00 AEST<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Australia\u2019s longest duration battery will come online this year, a major milestone as the power grid charges towards a mostly renewable <\/strong>energy future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When fully charged, the Limondale battery<\/a> in south-west New South Wales will be able to pump 50MW of power back into the grid over eight hours.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is \u2018dunkelflaute\u2019 and can we avoid it?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seasonal, or deep storage (beyond 12 hours), is more like an insurance policy, a strategic reserve for managing rare but unpredictable periods when cloudy and still weather conditions persist over several days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The phenomenon known as \u201cdunkelflaute\u201d (dark doldrums) is specific to highly renewable grids.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s the bit that is hardest to solve,\u201d Reeve says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Australia this risk is low<\/a> and it can be minimised by the geographic spread of solar, wind and hydro generation, or managed with seasonal storage like pumped hydro, like Snowy 2.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2025\/sep\/29\/limondale-long-duration-battery-energy-storage-system-bess-what-is-dunkelflaute-energy-grid-nsw-australia<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The study which claims the risk of prolonged blackouts is low is model based, they attempt to infer real historical conditions by hind casting based on scraps of historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Quantifying the risk of renewable energy droughts in Australia\u2019s National Electricity Market (NEM) using MERRA-2 weather data\u2606<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joel Gilmore, Tim Nelson, Tahlia Nolan,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is anticipated that Australia\u2019s National Electricity Market (NEM) will be almost entirely dependent upon variable renewable energy<\/a> (VRE) production in the coming decades. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and other researchers have provided detailed forecasts of the storage and firming required to ensure a secure electricity system that is supplied exclusively by VRE. However, these forecasts utilise existing VRE datasets which are often limited by historical observation given the relatively recent deployment of renewables in the Australian electricity system. This article seeks to significantly expand this analysis by building a VRE output forecast model that utilises 42 years of real-world weather data. This \u2018backcasting\u2019 approach provides data that will allow planners to far more accurately determine firming and storage requirements to overcome real-world instantaneous and medium-term production risk in a system supplied entirely by VRE resources<\/a>. Our results can be used by policy makers to better plan the just transition<\/a> to a renewable energy-based electricity system.Read more: https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0313592625001134<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

From the body of the study, \u201c\u2026 The end goal is a consistent weather dataset with much higher spatial resolution<\/a> than can be obtained from only physical historical measurements. \u2026\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors claim a high degree of accuracy, and also claim their model avoids overfitting. The following shows one of their models back casts vs real world data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Quantifying the risk of renewable energy droughts in Australia\u2019s National Electricity Market (NEM) using MERRA-2 weather data (Fig 2)<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Personally I have my doubts.\u00a0<\/strong>Overfitting is an insidious problem with these kinds of back casting attempts, especially when you are dealing with inadequate historical data. Even if you try to keep a portion of the data isolated to test the skill of a model trained on the rest of the data, knowledge of how to overfit that allegedly isolated test data can leak into your model through repeated attempts to get the model right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Comparison
An overfit model looks deceptively good.<\/strong>\u00a0An overfit model achieves a better score than a well trained model on the training data but fails horribly when presented with real world data which has not previously been presented to the model.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The conclusion of the study is interesting;<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Through the MERRA-2 reanalysis<\/a> dataset, we have undertaken a calibrated backcast of the existing VRE fleet as well as a hypothetical Future NEM fleet with greater geographical distribution<\/a>. While the concept of energy droughts have received much attention, we do not find evidence of extended time periods of low VRE production<\/a> in the NEM. For example, over a two-week period in the worst historical time sequence, the VRE fleet would still have delivered 70 % of the expected<\/em> output once seasonal trends (e.g., winter solar production) are taken into account. A 30 % reduction in expected energy is therefore the worst two-week historical VRE drought on record.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Firstly, it highlights the amount of firming required. For example, consider the simplest case of flat demand across the year, and the VRE fleet were built such that average generation equalled average demand. Section 4.2<\/a> suggests the worst case<\/em> firming energy requirements would be equal to i) two-thirds of the daily average energy demand; and ii) one-third of average monthly energy demand.<\/strong> This firming could be delivered through conventional hydro, seasonal energy storage, or zero emissions<\/a> gas peaking units but \u201coverbuilding\u201d the renewable energy fleet (that is, allowing for some spilled energy over time) is also likely to be an efficient source of energy firming.<\/strong> The relatively flat production risk over periods longer than two weeks (Fig. 15<\/a>) means technologies that can deliver additional energy over longer periods will be favoured (i.e., building additional VRE capacity and fuel based technologies such as zero emission OCGTs). A highly flexible demand side (e.g., hydrogen export industry<\/strong>) will support additional VRE build and provide its own source of firming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026Read more: https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0313592625001134<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

See \u2013 we Aussies can have our glorious renewable future, all we need is to put up with a few more blackouts, create a hydrogen export industry nobody wants, build lots of renewable overcapacity, and provide just over a week (a third of a month) of firming backup capacity, either through gas plants which will sit idle and burn money most of the time, or through lots of batteries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looming over all this is the energy surge the AI age is already starting to demand \u2013 a possible doubling of current electricity demand by 2050, just through the growth of AI.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course for a fraction of the money required to ensure a week of battery backup and 2-3x renewable overcapacity we could refurbish all our coal plants and have near zero blackouts and not have to bet the farm on a hydrogen export business which does not exist, but that kind of thinking is obviously evil and wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new study suggests blackouts will only happen sometimes, if we build enough batteries and overcapacity, and a hydrogen export industry.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":365948,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the challenges of achieving a renewable energy future in Australia and how new battery technology may prevent blackouts.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Managing Blackouts: The Future of Australia's Renewable Energy","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818216,691819405,691829379,691818154,691818181],"class_list":["post-406727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-australia","tag-dunkelflaute-or-dark-doldrums","tag-national-electricity-market-nem","tag-net-zero","tag-renewable-energy","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=2543%2C1649&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1HO7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":351562,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=351562","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":0},"title":"Why Ed Miliband\u2019s net zero dream is doomed to\u00a0failure","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/18\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate summits \u2013 with delegates flying in on private jets to discuss reductions in carbon emissions \u2013 tend to be hotbeds of irony. But the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change \u2013 also known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP \u2013 has elevated such lack of self-awareness\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/61c6b0050897d6c6eeebf20aea5d3965.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/61c6b0050897d6c6eeebf20aea5d3965.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/61c6b0050897d6c6eeebf20aea5d3965.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/61c6b0050897d6c6eeebf20aea5d3965.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/61c6b0050897d6c6eeebf20aea5d3965.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":365612,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=365612","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":1},"title":"Ed Miliband\u2019s Battery\u00a0Blitz","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Amongst all of Ed Miliband\u2019s crimes against the UK, surely the deliberate desecration of the countryside is up there amongst the worst.","rel":"","context":"In \"countryside\"","block_context":{"text":"countryside","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=countryside"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Abandonned-wind-park.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Abandonned-wind-park.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Abandonned-wind-park.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Abandonned-wind-park.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Abandonned-wind-park.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":350489,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=350489","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":2},"title":"The Dunkelflaute Disaster: What Happens When Wind Power Goes Silent","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In the latest illustration of why you can\u2019t rely on wishful thinking as a power source, the UK and Germany faced a harsh lesson in \u201cDunkelflaute.\u201d For those not familiar with this charming German term, it means \u201cdark doldrums\u201d\u2014or, in practical terms, a blackout in renewable power. While we\u2019ve been\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Dunkelflaute or \u2018dark doldrums\u2019\"","block_context":{"text":"Dunkelflaute or \u2018dark doldrums\u2019","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dunkelflaute-or-dark-doldrums"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-The-Dunkelflaute-Disaster.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-The-Dunkelflaute-Disaster.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-The-Dunkelflaute-Disaster.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-The-Dunkelflaute-Disaster.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/0-The-Dunkelflaute-Disaster.jpeg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377048,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377048","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":3},"title":"Dunkelflautes: Germany versus\u00a0Belgium","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Dunkelflaute = period in which total daily production of solar, and wind is less than 10% of its installed capacity","rel":"","context":"In \"Belgium\"","block_context":{"text":"Belgium","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=belgium"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":383912,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=383912","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":4},"title":"NESO Winter Outlook","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Britain will rely on electricity from France to guard against the risk of blackouts this coming winter, officials have said.","rel":"","context":"In \"Blackouts\"","block_context":{"text":"Blackouts","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=blackouts"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=1200%2C778&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=1200%2C778&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=1200%2C778&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=1200%2C778&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0Net-Zero-City-Blackout.jpg?fit=1200%2C778&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":354674,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354674","url_meta":{"origin":406727,"position":5},"title":"Germany Gets Dunkelf**ked Again, Norway to Dismantle Power Cables to Europe, Last Day For 30% Off","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/16\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Another wind drought has led to soaring electricity prices across Europe. Norway, which exports power to its European neighbors, has seen enough.","rel":"","context":"In \"Dunkelflaute or \u2018dark doldrums\u2019\"","block_context":{"text":"Dunkelflaute or \u2018dark doldrums\u2019","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dunkelflaute-or-dark-doldrums"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/077353323-07cf-485c-95eb-21caaaf9d66d_1280x720.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406727","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=406727"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406727\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":406739,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/406727\/revisions\/406739"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/365948"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=406727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=406727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=406727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}