{"id":406483,"date":"2025-10-03T18:58:19","date_gmt":"2025-10-03T16:58:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406483"},"modified":"2025-10-03T18:58:21","modified_gmt":"2025-10-03T16:58:21","slug":"new-study-attributes-arctic-sea-ice-decline-and-slowdown-since-2012-to-internal-variability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406483","title":{"rendered":"New Study Attributes Arctic Sea Ice Decline \u2013 And \u2018Slowdown\u2019 Since 2012 -To Internal Variability"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From No Trick Zone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Kenneth Richard<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u201cObservations show no significant decline in Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) since 2012\u2026revealing a negligible trend of -0.4% per decade\u2026\u201d \u2013 Wang et al., 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scientists are now acknowledging the sharply declining trend in Arctic Sea ice from the mid-1990s to 2010s (-11.3% per decade), as well as the \u201cnegligible\u201d or flat trend since 2012 (-0.4% per decade) are both \u201cclosely coupled\u201d with natural decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and \u201cenhanced summertime radiation balance associated with an anticyclonic atmospheric circulation pattern.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, instead of a linear decline in Arctic Sea ice coupled with rising greenhouse gas emissions, it is claimed that \u201capproximately half\u201d of the observed Arctic Sea ice decline in the modern era can be attributed to internal variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of this new study published in Nature Communications<\/em> further suggest the flattened trend or \u201cslowdown\u201d in sea ice decline will likely persist for the next 10 to 15 years. Consequently, alarmist predictions of an \u201cice-free\u201d Arctic in the coming decades will have to be put on hold until after the 2030s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Research
Image Source:\u00a0Wang et al., 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cObservations show no significant decline in Arctic Sea ice concentration (SIC) since 2012\u2026revealing a negligible trend of -0.4% per decade\u2026\u201d \u2013\u00a0Wang et al., 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":406487,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Recent studies reveal Arctic sea ice decline is linked to natural variability, with trends stabilizing since 2012. Discover the facts.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"New Study Shows Arctic Sea Ice Decline Slowing Since 2012","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691838534,691818990,691819160,691838535,691838492,691820700,691826569],"class_list":{"0":"post-406483","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-alarmist-predictions","9":"tag-arctic-sea-ice","10":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation","11":"tag-ice-free-arctic-3","12":"tag-nature-communications","13":"tag-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao","14":"tag-observations","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQP4jvCdXsU2rzNQhWIzGqXnme-KgOQj-QfAS7C6FPZiz3uWgtvbFdnSDQ-dxGZV8jDHGO5kURr_AkpLNpqrEZGxmSkCFnbOV1d4weCBTRRIWQDB93kdFSjlE0fFn7Y-1.png?fit=810%2C1440&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1HKb","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":384955,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=384955","url_meta":{"origin":406483,"position":0},"title":"Climate Oscillations 3: Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Northern Hemisphere sea ice area is an important climatic indicator because it determines how much of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are open to the atmosphere. Ice is a good insulator and traps heat in the water below it (Peixoto & Oort, 1992, p. 361). 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