{"id":405637,"date":"2025-09-29T09:06:40","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:06:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405637"},"modified":"2025-09-29T09:06:42","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T07:06:42","slug":"arctic-ice-aplenty-at-annual-dip-september-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405637","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Ice Aplenty at Annual Dip September\u00a02025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After a sub-par March maximum, by end of May 2025 Arctic ice closed the gap with the 19-year average.\u00a0 In mid-August MASIE showed the Arctic ice extent matching the 19-year average.\u00a0 Mid month Arctic ice went above average and remained in surplus, ranging from a high of +231k km2 to +160k km2 at end of August. Now during the annual minimum month of September 2025 there is Arctic ice aplenty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

During the annual dip in Arctic ice extent, the average year since 2006 is lowest on day 260 at 4.53M km2.  It then rises to 4.8M km2 ten days later.  The cyan line shows 2025 above average throughout, its lowest extent at 4.85M km2 on day 265, and now up to 5.07M km2.  SII v.4 was lower than MASIE throughout, but has drawn closer in recent days.  So far MASIE September average is 5.0M and SII is 4.7M, with 4 more days remaining in the month. Note 2007 was ~800k km2 in deficit, 2020 ~600k down at day 270, while last year was ~300k below average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The regional distribution of ice extents is shown in the table below. (Bering and Okhotsk seas are excluded since both are now virtually open water.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2025270<\/strong><\/td>Day 270 ave.<\/strong><\/td>2025-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2007270<\/strong><\/td>2025-2007<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>5074777<\/td>4798758<\/td>276018<\/td>4023569<\/td>1051207<\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>483527<\/td>520730<\/td>-37203<\/td>482030<\/td>1497<\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>332213<\/td>210352<\/td>121861<\/td>214<\/td>331999<\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>499915<\/td>280923<\/td>218992<\/td>311<\/td>499604<\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>273431<\/td>152794<\/td>120636<\/td>238340<\/td>35091<\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>4906<\/td>33680<\/td>-28774<\/td>15113<\/td>-10207<\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>0<\/td>12945<\/td>-12945<\/td>4851<\/td>-4851<\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>165160<\/td>225916<\/td>-60756<\/td>339720<\/td>-174560<\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>70284<\/td>47480<\/td>22804<\/td>43624<\/td>26660<\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>302771<\/td>336303<\/td>-33533<\/td>280360<\/td>22410<\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>2415<\/td>2252<\/td>163<\/td>1936<\/td>479<\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>2938588<\/td>2974115<\/td>-35527<\/td>2615795.38<\/td>322792<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The table shows large surpluses in Eurasian basins  Laptev, Chukchi and E. Siberian, more than offsetting smaller deficits in Central Arctic, CAA and Greenland seas. Hudson Bay is mostly open water at this time of year. 2025 exceeds the average ice extents by 276k km2, or 6%, and is over 1 wadham greater than 2007 or a surplus of 1.05M km2 of ice extent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

September monthly average ice extent is considered the annual minimum for climate purposes.\u00a0 Note also that typically the lowest daily value occurs mid-September, with a small positive gain between the end of August and end of September.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Why is this important?\u00a0 All the claims of global climate emergency depend on dangerously higher\u00a0 temperatures, lower sea ice, and rising sea levels.\u00a0 The lack of additional warming prior to 2023 El Nino is documented in a post\u00a0SH Drives UAH Temps Cooler July 2025.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The lack of acceleration in sea levels along coastlines has been discussed also.  See Observed vs. Imagined Sea Levels 2023 Update<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, a longer-term perspective is informative:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Footnote Regarding  SII v.4<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NSDIC acknowledged my query regarding the SII (Sea Ice Index) dataset. While awaiting an explanation I investigated further. My last download of the SII Daily Arctic Ice Extents was on July 30, meaning that the most recent data in that file was day 210, July 29. The header on that file was Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then on August 1, the downloaded file had the heading Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v4. So it appears that these are now the values from a new version of SII. As I wrote in my query, since March 14 all of the values for Arctic Ice Extents are lower in this new record. The graph above shows the implications for August as an example of estimates from SIIv.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past, SIIv.3 tracked MASIE with slightly lower values.  But with v.4, larger monthly average deficits to MASIE were reported in July 2025 ( -282k km2) and in August (-440k km2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The change started in January 2025 and will be the basis for future reporting.  The logic for this is presented in this document: Sea Ice Index Version 4 Analysis<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In June 2025, NSIDC was informed that access to data from the Special Sensor Microwave<\/em>
Imager\/Sounder (SSMIS) onboard the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)<\/em>
satellites would end on July 31 (NSIDC, 2025). To prepare for this, we rapidly developed version<\/em>
4 of the Sea Ice Index. This new version transitions from using sea ice concentration fields<\/em>
derived from SSMIS data as input to using fields derived from the Advanced Microwave<\/em>
Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor onboard the Global Change Observation Mission \u2013 W1<\/em>
(GCOM-W1) satellite.  <\/em>On 29 July 2025, we learned that the Defense Department decision to terminate access to <\/em>DMSP data had been reversed and that data will continue to be available until September 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are publishing Version 4, however, for these reasons:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 The SSMIS instruments are well past their designed lifespan and a transition to<\/em>
AMSR2 is inevitable. Unless the sensors fail earlier, the DoD will formally end the<\/em>
program in September 2026.<\/em>
\u2022 Although access of SSMIS will continue through September 2026, the Fleet<\/em>
Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), where SSMIS data<\/em>
from the DMSP satellite are downloaded, made an announcement that \u201cSupport<\/em>
will be on a best effort basis and should be considered data of opportunity.\u201d This<\/em>
means that SSMIS data will likely contain data gaps.<\/em>
\u2022 We have developer time to make this transition now and may not in the future.<\/em>
\u2022 We are confident that Version 4 data are commensurate in accuracy to those<\/em>
provided by Version 3.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After a sub-par March maximum, by end of May 2025 Arctic ice closed the gap with the 19-year average.\u00a0 In mid-August MASIE showed the Arctic ice extent matching the 19-year average.\u00a0 Mid month Arctic ice went above average and remained in surplus, ranging from a high of +231k km2 to +160k km2 at end of August. Now during the annual minimum month of September 2025 there is\u00a0 Arctic ice aplenty.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":405650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the Arctic ice changes in September 2025, revealing surplus levels and significant impacts on climate predictions.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Arctic Ice Levels Surpass Average: September 2025 Update","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819671,691822451,691830791],"class_list":["post-405637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic-ice","tag-masie","tag-sii-sea-ice-index","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQM10HmKgmFuz-Uy0dDj8rmRkOuVkvdLbZca1VvP4NCYoBLj0B5mzpRn-Dn3RVdvrHOKb2vFT7cSUt8icXD-zWAkbm_lHpSE15MagrvnypWe_EmvE5mmC23ioxZsfEz28DQW6A3ZxAe5ibNP170RLcpf2vtq7A.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Hwx","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":401071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401071","url_meta":{"origin":405637,"position":0},"title":"September 2025 Arctic Ice\u00a0Outlook","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"After the dip there will be continuing recovery of ice extent, with end of September usually higher than the beginning.\u00a0 The September monthly average will be interesting to compare.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic 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Ice Recovering\u00a0Rapidly","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arctic ice was rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0 From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows Arctic ice rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426276,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426276","url_meta":{"origin":405637,"position":3},"title":"Arctic Ice Nearly Average mid-February\u00a02026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/15\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The arctic ice extents are now reported through mid-February 2026, showing rising refreezing rates bringing Arctic ice extents within 200k km2 of the 20-year average.\u00a0 Remarkably, the last two days virtually matched the 2025 annual extent maximum of 14.48M km2 on day 80 of that year, compared to 14.44 on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIGP-4.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIGP-4.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIGP-4.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/OIGP-4.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282822,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282822","url_meta":{"origin":405637,"position":4},"title":"October 2023 Arctic Ice Flash\u00a0Freezing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"All climate models and doomed predictions of Ice - Free Arctic had been wrong. From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows the rapid refreezing of Arctic ice from September 30 to yesterday October 9.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-272.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278030,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278030","url_meta":{"origin":405637,"position":5},"title":"September Outlook Arctic Ice\u00a02023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The experts involved in SIPN are expecting SII 2023 September to be higher than 2007 and somewhat lower than 2022. \u00a0The way MASIE is going, this September looks to be nearly average unless some bad weather intervenes.\u00a0 While the daily minimum for the year occurs mid September, ice extent on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/010_9_14_upton_Antarctic_sea_ice_NASA__1050_788_s_c1_c_c.jpg?fit=1050%2C788&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=405637"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":405652,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405637\/revisions\/405652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/405650"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=405637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=405637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=405637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}