{"id":405032,"date":"2025-09-26T08:27:42","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T06:27:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405032"},"modified":"2025-09-26T08:36:50","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T06:36:50","slug":"arctic-sea-ice-refuses-to-disappear-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405032","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Sea Ice Refuses To Disappear\u00a0(Again!)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can now provisionally declare that Arctic Sea ice hit its minimum extent on September 10, relatively early this year, measured at 4.602 million sq km. This compares to the 2011 \u2013 2020 average of 4.422 million sq km.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"Graph
https:\/\/nsidc.org\/sea-ice-today\/sea-ice-tools\/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

For a clear picture, I have charted the annual minimums since 2001. It shows the same story as in previous years \u2013 a sudden decline in extent in 2007, since when things have remained stable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was not, of course, how things were supposed to be!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the years we have been assured by many experts that all the sea ice in the Arctic would soon have melted away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2007, for instance, Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told us that northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years.  In December that year, Jay Zwally of NASA agreed, giving the ice till 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A year later, Professor David Barber went one step further, saying the ice would all be gone that very summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For sheer persistence in getting it wrong, however, the prize must go to Professor Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • In 2012, he predicted that the Arctic would be ice free by 2015\/16.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • In 2014, he thought it might last till 2020<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • In 2016, he confidently predicted the Arctic would be ice free that summer (though curiously he now defined \u201cice free\u201d as less than 1 million square kilometers!)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    We can now provisionally declare that Arctic Sea ice hit its minimum extent on September 10, relatively early this year, measured at 4.602 million sq km. This compares to the 2011 \u2013 2020 average of 4.422 million sq km.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":405039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover the surprising stability of Arctic sea ice as it reaches 4.602 million sq km, defying predictions of complete disappearance.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Arctic Sea Ice Update: Minimum Extent Shows Unexpected Resilience","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818990,691821266,691838298,691838299,691838297],"class_list":["post-405032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic-sea-ice","tag-ice-free-2","tag-jay-zwally","tag-professor-david-barber","tag-professor-wieslaw-maslowski","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1HmM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":404579,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404579","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":0},"title":"Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 2025: Another Year, Another Non-Event","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/24\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The annual Arctic Sea ice minimum has arrived once again, and as usual, it provides far less drama than the media headlines would suggest. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 10th, 2025, at 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"10th lowest\"","block_context":{"text":"10th lowest","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=10th-lowest"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":283797,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=283797","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":1},"title":"Mid October 2023 Arctic Ice Recovering\u00a0Rapidly","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/18\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Arctic ice was rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite much ado about September minimums, in fact the ice recovers quickly from its annual low extent.\u00a0 From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz The animation shows Arctic ice rapidly growing from September 30 to yesterday October 16.\u00a0 Despite\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/OIGP-7.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":280974,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=280974","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":2},"title":"What Happened To The Ice-Free\u00a0Arctic?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic ice cap\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic ice cap","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice-cap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1200%2C587&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1200%2C587&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1200%2C587&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1200%2C587&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Wall-Street-Journal_Fred-Singer_sea-level-rise-climate-change_screen.png?fit=1200%2C587&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419856,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419856","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":3},"title":"Arctic Ice Recovering 2025\u00a0Yearend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Sea ice extent is the total area of ocean covered by at least 15% sea ice, measured daily via satellite passive microwave sensors (e.g., NSIDC Sea Ice Index). It differs from sea ice area (which accounts for actual ice concentration) or volume\/thickness. Extent is a key climate indicator because it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":401071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401071","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":4},"title":"September 2025 Arctic Ice\u00a0Outlook","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"After the dip there will be continuing recovery of ice extent, with end of September usually higher than the beginning.\u00a0 The September monthly average will be interesting to compare.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":405503,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=405503","url_meta":{"origin":405032,"position":5},"title":"2025 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Nearly Half A Million Square Kilometers More Than 2007","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/28\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Late summer Arctic Sea ice extent has remained steady for almost 2 decades.","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Gore\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Gore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-gore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=405032"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405032\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":405044,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/405032\/revisions\/405044"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/405039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=405032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=405032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=405032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}