{"id":404579,"date":"2025-09-24T12:21:39","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:21:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404579"},"modified":"2025-09-24T12:21:41","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T10:21:41","slug":"arctic-sea-ice-minimum-2025-another-year-another-non-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404579","title":{"rendered":"Arctic Sea Ice Minimum 2025: Another Year, Another Non-Event"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"404586\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=404586\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A man in a suit appears shocked and alarmed, standing on icy terrain with icebergs in the background at sunset. Overlaid text reads: 'The Arctic will be Ice Free 2013'.\" class=\"wp-image-404586\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOTVABL2MNjIVgWm8UWoCiFRN9Mvue5p14XmrEC2rrkJGiPWxXtS9uhbSgC0xaUsn7iGhvX3aVjLjJ-1f-98Mi4YiUWuseItYaBhm9Uscq5bYvx35hin_nu_HyUib4onhDWQZh_a2xQDD2lsuncEobvd_ViJQ.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/09\/21\/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-2025-another-year-another-non-event\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/author\/wattsupwiththat\/\">Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The annual Arctic Sea ice minimum has arrived once again, and as usual, it provides far less drama than the media headlines would suggest. According to the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/nsidc.org\/sea-ice-today\/analyses\/2025-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-squeezes-ten-lowest-minimums\">National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)<\/a>, Arctic Sea ice extent bottomed out on\u00a0<strong>September 10th, 2025<\/strong>, at\u00a0<strong>4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That figure puts 2025 in a tie for&nbsp;<strong>10th lowest in the satellite record<\/strong>, right alongside 2008 and 2010. But here\u2019s the key point that gets lost in the breathless reporting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It\u2019s been\u00a0<strong>13 years since the record low of 2012<\/strong>, and no new record has been set since.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This year\u2019s minimum is\u00a0<strong>higher than<\/strong>\u00a0the minimums of 2007, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>And despite Al Gore\u2019s infamous prediction of an \u201cice-free Arctic\u201d by 2014, here we are with nearly\u00a0<strong>1.8 million square miles of ice still in place<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ice, in other words, is still there \u2014 stubbornly refusing to cooperate with climate apocalypse narratives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, let\u2019s look directly at NSIDC\u2019s own words from their September 17th analysis:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cOn September 10, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles). The 2025 minimum shares the tenth lowest spot in the nearly 47-year satellite record with 2008 and 2010. While the last 19 years, from 2007 to 2025, are the lowest 19 sea ice extents in the satellite record, there has been no significant trend in September minimum extents over this time.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That last line is crucial. While the long-term decline since 1979 is real, over the last&nbsp;<strong>two decades<\/strong>&nbsp;there has been&nbsp;<strong>no significant downward trend<\/strong>&nbsp;in September minimums. In other words: the so-called \u201cdeath spiral\u201d has been more like a wobble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s NSIDC\u2019s own graph from&nbsp;<em>Figure 1b<\/em>, which tells the story clearly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"578\" data-attachment-id=\"404581\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=404581\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?fit=1050%2C840&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1050,840\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?fit=723%2C578&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?resize=723%2C578&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph depicting Arctic sea ice extent from May to September 2025, showing area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice. Various lines represent different years, with notable comparisons to historical data.\" class=\"wp-image-404581\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?resize=1024%2C819&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?resize=300%2C240&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?resize=768%2C614&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-524.png?w=1050&amp;ssl=1 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Figure 1b from NSIDC: Arctic sea ice extent as of September 10, 2025 (blue line), compared with prior years. Note the record low in 2012 (dashed brown). Source: NSIDC.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year\u2019s minimum of&nbsp;<strong>4.60 million km\u00b2<\/strong>&nbsp;is:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>1.21 million km\u00b2 above the record low<\/strong>\u00a0of 3.39 million km\u00b2 set in 2012.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>1.62 million km\u00b2 below the 1981\u20132010 average<\/strong>, which NSIDC notes is about the size of Alaska.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reached on\u00a0<strong>September 10<\/strong>, about four days earlier than the long-term median date of September 14.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s the ranking table directly from NSIDC:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"335\" data-attachment-id=\"404582\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=404582\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?fit=849%2C393&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"849,393\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?fit=723%2C335&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?resize=723%2C335&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Table showing minimum Arctic sea ice extents from 2012 to 2025, including data for square kilometers and square miles.\" class=\"wp-image-404582\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?w=849&amp;ssl=1 849w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?resize=300%2C139&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-525.png?resize=768%2C356&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Table 1 from NSIDC: Top 10 lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extents (1979\u20132025). Values within 40,000 km\u00b2 are considered tied. Source: NSIDC.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notice carefully: 2012 still stands alone at the top (or bottom, depending on your perspective). Every year since then \u2014 including this year \u2014 has had more ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So much for the \u201crunaway melt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Gore Factor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No discussion of Arctic ice would be complete without revisiting one of the most infamous climate predictions ever made. In 2009, former Vice President Al Gore declared at COP15 that the Arctic could be \u201ccompletely ice-free in the summer\u201d as soon as 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"723\" height=\"407\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MsioIw4bvzI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Well, here we are in 2025. Not only is the Arctic not ice-free, but it has also nearly\u00a0<strong>1.8 million square miles of ice still in place<\/strong>\u00a0\u2014 larger than the entire landmass of India. Gore\u2019s forecast has \u201cmissed\u201d by an area bigger than Greenland and Alaska combined.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s not a rounding error. That\u2019s a prediction failure of epic proportions. See more failures on our&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/failed-prediction-timeline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Failed Climate Prediction Timeline.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What the Satellite Record Really Shows<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The satellite record, beginning in 1979, does indeed show an overall decline in September ice. According to NSIDC:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThe overall, downward trend in the minimum extent from 1979 to 2025 is 12.1 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. From the linear trend, the loss of sea ice is about 74,000 square kilometers (29,000 square miles) per year, equivalent to losing the state of South Dakota or the country of Austria annually.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But again, they admit:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cThis overall trend should be viewed with the caveat that there has been no significant downward trend in September minimum extents over the past two decades.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s bureaucratic language for: \u201cIt\u2019s flatlined since 2007.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If climate models were right, we should have seen accelerating decline and likely another record low by now. Instead, the last 19 years have all occupied the same general band.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What About the Antarctic?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While this year\u2019s Arctic minimum is being framed as \u201camong the 10 lowest,\u201d NSIDC also notes something rarely discussed in the media:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cIn the Antarctic, sea ice extent has been tracking at the third lowest level in the satellite record for most of the growth season, but the maximum has not yet been reached.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That matters because for decades, Antarctic sea ice was stable or even growing slightly \u2014 a fact that often irritated those wanting a clean, one-way narrative. Now it\u2019s dipping, but NSIDC cautions that fluctuations are normal near the seasonal maximum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, variability is the rule, not the exception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If one steps back from the year-to-year noise, a larger pattern emerges. The Arctic is not vanishing \u2014 it\u2019s oscillating. Yes, the long-term baseline is lower than in the early 1980s. But the lack of a downward push since 2012 strongly suggests that&nbsp;<strong>natural variability plays a much larger role<\/strong>&nbsp;than climate models admit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solar cycles, ocean oscillations (such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and shifting wind patterns all play into the distribution and persistence of Arctic ice. Pretending this is purely about CO\u2082 levels is simplistic at best and misleading at worst.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Arctic has been used as a poster child for climate alarm for nearly two decades. Predictions of an \u201cice-free summer\u201d were leveraged to push policy, carbon taxes, and renewable mandates. Yet the reality on the ground \u2014 or in this case, on the ice \u2014 has not matched the rhetoric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If a business executive\u2019s forecast missed this badly, they\u2019d be fired. If a TV weather forecaster got it wrong for 13 years straight, viewers would stop tuning in. But in climate science, failed predictions are simply ignored while the climate doom narrative rolls on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conclusion: Still Plenty of Ice<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, where does this leave us in 2025?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>The Arctic minimum this year was 4.60 million km\u00b2.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>It ranks only 10th lowest<\/strong>, tied with two other years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>No new record has been set for 13 years.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>There has been no significant downward trend for 20 years.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Al Gore\u2019s 2014 prediction is still off by nearly 2 million square miles.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short: the Arctic is not disappearing. It remains icy, unpredictable, and inconvenient to those who wish to use it as a scare tactic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As NSIDC itself admits, the flattening trend is still a subject of \u201cactive debate\u201d among scientists. Perhaps it\u2019s time for policymakers and journalists to debate it as well \u2014 instead of pretending the science is \u201csettled.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Author\u2019s Note:<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/em>As always, I encourage readers to view the NSIDC\u2019s own analysis&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/nsidc.org\/sea-ice-today\/analyses\/2025-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-squeezes-ten-lowest-minimums\">here<\/a>&nbsp;and examine the figures and tables firsthand. The data tells a more interesting story than the headlines ever will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The annual Arctic Sea ice minimum has arrived once again, and as usual, it provides far less drama than the media headlines would suggest. According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Arctic Sea ice extent bottomed out on September 10th, 2025, at 4.60 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":404586,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover the latest Arctic sea ice minimum data for 2025, revealing a surprising stability amid alarming predictions. Explore the truth!","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Arctic Sea Ice 2025: Still Here Despite Al Gore's 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Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Nearly Half A Million Square Kilometers More Than 2007","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Late summer Arctic Sea ice extent has remained steady for almost 2 decades.","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Gore\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Gore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-gore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQPcOacUDXcdedQ2tNDRCZJ8F8y2ya9jXGx9uwoFmYpy8ILkfUByx13dk_whWwg1oj7JXg44nJrjgwPKn25qBX44XTqtNqRqbVGs4cKSiqI3rtP-bCbG-miTsqFifupYwEdYtiFUmAGP73BmnFK8PaKDC41B1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Ice\u00a0Outlook","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"After the dip there will be continuing recovery of ice extent, with end of September usually higher than the beginning.\u00a0 The September monthly average will be interesting to compare.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMdvRrPd8AapbqS598oXlkKL8lNU7wsJBLh3lBQbLXWVp8gPxPHVJ-c7_IyaJq2InhtPF4rh1Pm1Nr0yWAI8PFpn_cmf8Qs4FqzCtKq9vyhUnJ2IkdmpVNu6ZbDUspvvyl6vBhZ_OaycAK7i7JQcb1lXNUVlA.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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This compares to the 2011 \u2013 2020 average of 4.422 million sq km.","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic sea ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic sea ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-sea-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQN4n5Rlcqe77zG5PxfvMWt6IZgynJuU7y0aPJDfs3L7Q8OfeNpgP9qNIiD0J3k_P7Pf5Y6lWGLFk8al_ACqu7Jp1M0jwY5Fhsy_h3eyPXFfLDfP3Wmjv0N_WvuG3_YreQfmYd5N1zu9AbaJlqFL76Fpq3hrZw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":282425,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=282425","url_meta":{"origin":404579,"position":3},"title":"Veteran German Meteorologist: Arctic Showing \u201cSignificant Trend Towards More Ice!\u201d Since 2007","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From NoTricksZone By\u00a0P Gosselin\u00a0on\u00a07. October 2023 Retired German meteorologist\u00a0Klaus-Eckart Puls writes at the European Institute for Climate and Energy\u00a0(EIKE) that the Arctic has stopped melting over the past years. By Klaus-Eckart Puls The above polynomial curve chart plots the Arctic sea ice minimum for each year since 1990. It has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-185.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":419856,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=419856","url_meta":{"origin":404579,"position":4},"title":"Arctic Ice Recovering 2025\u00a0Yearend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Sea ice extent is the total area of ocean covered by at least 15% sea ice, measured daily via satellite passive microwave sensors (e.g., NSIDC Sea Ice Index). It differs from sea ice area (which accounts for actual ice concentration) or volume\/thickness. Extent is a key climate indicator because it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arctic Ice\"","block_context":{"text":"Arctic Ice","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arctic-ice"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQOKlKbXXj78ZND9m8v7CAsaTpNx7zuG8EEqsRtVS8ItC_FrhUjQZrN9cV3pbHOaEsC79TU93CX8kvZZyYCudf4iKlfwmCieEsB7MeOH1YkcahmdAaDCkzOpOcB1_sgy.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":216801,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=216801","url_meta":{"origin":404579,"position":5},"title":"Arctic Ice Hockey Stick Reappears August End","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Some take any year\u2019s slightly lower minimum as proof that Arctic ice is dying, but the image above shows the Arctic heart is beating clear and strong.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-53.png?fit=939%2C573&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-53.png?fit=939%2C573&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-53.png?fit=939%2C573&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-53.png?fit=939%2C573&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=404579"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":404588,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404579\/revisions\/404588"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/404586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=404579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=404579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=404579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}