{"id":404544,"date":"2025-09-24T09:17:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T07:17:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404544"},"modified":"2025-09-24T09:17:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T07:17:08","slug":"hurricane-bloating-discovery-no-global-warming-needed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=404544","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Bloating Discovery \u2013 No Global Warming Needed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Purdue study uncovers why some hurricanes balloon in size and what that means for forecasting future storms \u2013 well\u2026 maybe. It seems to simplistic to me as there are many other factors in hurricane formation and life-cycles. But\u2026.there\u2019s this: \u201cThe study found that hurricane size growth rates do not change much with global mean warming, though global temperatures continue to rise.<\/em>\u201d -Anthony<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When people hear about hurricanes, they often focus on the category rating: Category 1 through 5, based on maximum wind speeds. But not all hurricanes with the same wind speeds are alike. Some are compact storms while others can span the size of entire states. Larger hurricanes bring far greater damage, generating wider footprints of high winds, heavier rainfall and more dangerous storm surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new study led by Purdue University researchers has uncovered why some hurricanes grow significantly larger than others and why this growth occurs rapidly under certain ocean conditions. The research shows, for the first time, that hurricanes grow in size much faster when traveling over locally warm waters where the ocean surface is significantly warmer than the rest of the tropical oceans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThis discovery can be put directly into use for daily forecasting of hurricane size and impacts,\u201d said Danyang Wang, postdoctoral researcher in Purdue\u2019s Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). \u201cIt can also be used to better model hurricane size in long-term risk models used by industry to evaluate property risks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The discovery, led by Wang with guidance from professor Dan Chavas of Purdue\u2019s EAPS department, was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences<\/a> (PNAS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wang developed the underlying theory, extracted and analyzed data from historical records and climate simulations, and wrote the manuscript. Chavas provided high-level feedback on how to connect the theory to real-world storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They were joined by collaborator Ben Schenkel, a research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations at the University of Oklahoma. Schenkel provided a tropical cyclone size database used in the analysis and helped clarify results across multiple datasets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before this work, scientists knew that some hurricanes expanded significantly during their lifetimes while others stayed compact. But the factors behind that difference were not well understood. Wang and Chavas showed that the rapid growth of storms is tied to \u201chot spots\u201d in the ocean. These are localized areas where the water is significantly warmer than the surrounding tropical waters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results also suggest a surprising silver lining in a warming world. The study found that hurricane size growth rates do not change much with global mean warming, though global temperatures continue to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season gave a striking example of why storm size matters. Hurricane Helene expanded rapidly before making landfall, ballooning into one of the largest storms in U.S. history at an estimated width of over 400 miles and causing unprecedented damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTwo hurricanes with the same maximum wind speed can be two very different sizes,\u201d Wang said. \u201cBut think of one doughnut the size of South Carolina and another the size of Texas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chavas compared the process to popcorn kernels in a pan. \u201cThe hurricanes see the tropical ocean like popcorn heated on an uneven pan \u2014 turning up the heat everywhere may make them pop a little faster, but it\u2019s over the hot spots where the hurricanes will pop the fastest.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modern satellites provide high-quality, daily estimated measurements of sea surface temperatures worldwide. By applying this new understanding of how hurricanes respond to local ocean hot spots, forecasters may be able to better predict how large storms will become at landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA larger storm has a larger footprint of damaging winds, generates higher storm surge and over a larger area, and produces more rainfall \u2014 all greater risks to society,\u201d Wang said. \u201cBetter predictions of storm size at landfall translate to better predictions of the hazards that pose risks to life and property.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chavas lab at Purdue specializes in understanding extreme weather, from tropical cyclones to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Wang focuses on the physics of hurricane structure, particularly storm size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The team tapped into Purdue\u2019s Rosen Center for Advanced Computing<\/a>, which gave them the ability to analyze global data in fine detail and uncover patterns that would have been impossible to see otherwise. These resources helped ensure that their findings about tropical cyclone growth are both accurate and comprehensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They also used the National Center for Atmospheric Research\u2019s Cheyenne and Derecho supercomputers, some of the fastest in the world, to run experiments that mimic how storms behave in different warming scenarios. This powerful combination of Purdue and NCAR computing resources let the researchers explore what-if questions about our climate and deliver insights that can improve forecasts and preparedness for future storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The findings pave the way for improvements in both daily storm forecasting and long-term risk assessment used by industries such as insurance and infrastructure planning. The research also highlights the importance of integrating theoretical science with high-resolution data and advanced computing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The work was supported by the National Science Foundation Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences under grants #2431970 and #1945113.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When people hear about hurricanes, they often focus on the category rating: Category 1 through 5, based on maximum wind speeds. But not all hurricanes with the same wind speeds are alike. Some are compact storms while others can span the size of entire states. Larger hurricanes bring far greater damage, generating wider footprints of high winds, heavier rainfall and more dangerous storm surge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":404547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691838254,691838255,691838256,691819268,691818087,691818104,691833970,691820968],"class_list":["post-404544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-category-1-through-5","tag-eaps","tag-global-mean-warming","tag-global-temperatures","tag-global-warming","tag-hurricanes","tag-proceedings-of-the-national-academy-of-sciences-pnas","tag-sea-surface-temperatures-sst","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQNE9m-vHY2t7WraL5DSk1JXgkxMzZfhaVDHKgXNooIqw78rE_GwnRL6-D_E0OXHArIjfyv3vqH_zw14HBKobSWHY1ihcptMxn0PRXJ01bT0Xj0j8u5Ivlq_4RZwR_X-Mcp5AOR2fqdYuLYtvTDINwOkOZx4-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1HeU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":411107,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=411107","url_meta":{"origin":404544,"position":0},"title":"The AP Gets Hurricanes Wrong, Again, Melissa\u2019s Intensity Is Not Proof of Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/31\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a widely published\u00a0Associated Press\u00a0(AP) article,\u00a0\u201cClimate change fuels Hurricane Melissa\u2019s rapid intensification to Category 5,\u201d\u00a0reporter Sibi Arasu claims that \u201cthe warming of the world\u2019s oceans caused by climate change helped double Hurricane Melissa\u2019s wind speed in less than 24 hours.\u201d This is highly misleading if not outright false. Scientific data\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-31-100804.png?fit=1200%2C718&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412350,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412350","url_meta":{"origin":404544,"position":1},"title":"Wrong, Detroit Free Press, Hurricane Melissa Wasn\u2019t Caused by Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In a Detroit Free Press (FP) opinion piece, \u201cClimate change denial can\u2019t stand up to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa,\u201d meteorologist Paul Gross claims that Hurricane Melissa proves climate change is making hurricanes stronger, faster, and more destructive. 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The inspiration for this came indirectly from Bill O\u2019Reilly. 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We don\u2019t know of course what the wind speeds were at landfall, as the 185-mph figure was measured hours before landfall.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricane Wilma\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricane Wilma","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricane-wilma"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-08-141201.png?fit=1200%2C876&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-08-141201.png?fit=1200%2C876&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-08-141201.png?fit=1200%2C876&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-08-141201.png?fit=1200%2C876&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/00Screenshot-2025-11-08-141201.png?fit=1200%2C876&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","url_meta":{"origin":404544,"position":5},"title":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophe prophets\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophe prophets","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=catastrophe-prophets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=404544"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404544\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":404549,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/404544\/revisions\/404549"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/404547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=404544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=404544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=404544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}