{"id":403748,"date":"2025-09-21T14:04:05","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T12:04:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403748"},"modified":"2025-09-21T14:04:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T12:04:07","slug":"an-early-look-at-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403748","title":{"rendered":"An early look at winter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"403802\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403802\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Two deer grazing near a snow-covered lake surrounded by pine trees and mountains in the background.\" class=\"wp-image-403802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/2025\/09\/19\/an-early-look-at-winter\/\">CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/guestauthor47181744466634www-cfact-org\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"403800\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403800\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?fit=848%2C565&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"848,565\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0a-visit-from-saint-joe\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A tabby cat wearing a purple scarf looks up as snowflakes fall in a winter setting.\" class=\"wp-image-403800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?w=848&amp;ssl=1 848w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0a-visit-from-saint-joe.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This was first issued Aug 29 to clients.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The threat of a cold winter looms.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Plenty of blocking is expected over the Arctic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A prominent Alaskan ridge should lead to plenty of cold air.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Another Thanksgiving-to-Christmas cold period is on the table, but this time it may not break.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The heart of the winter looks coldest relative to average, but there are questions as to how it starts and ends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-attachment-id=\"403751\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403751\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-422.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,427\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-422.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-422.png?resize=640%2C427&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing the November 2025 to March 2026 temperature anomaly forecast across the United States, with varying color-coded temperature ranges.\" class=\"wp-image-403751\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-422.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-422.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analog:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"403753\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403753\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-424.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,492\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-424.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-424.png?resize=550%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map depicting NOAA\/NCEI climate division composite temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit from November to March, comparing values against the long-term average from 1991 to 2020.\" class=\"wp-image-403753\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-424.png?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-424.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Snowfall:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-attachment-id=\"403755\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403755\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-426.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,427\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-426.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-426.png?resize=640%2C427&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing the Winter 2025-26 snowfall forecast as a percentage of normal across the United States, highlighting areas with increased snowfall potential.\" class=\"wp-image-403755\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-426.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-426.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Temperatures for the heart of winter:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" data-attachment-id=\"403757\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403757\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-427.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,427\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-427.png?fit=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-427.png?resize=640%2C427&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing the temperature anomaly forecast for December 2025 to February 2026 across the United States, highlighting varying temperature ranges with color-coded keys.\" class=\"wp-image-403757\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-427.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-427.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Euro loves to forecast an Alaskan ridge from December into January. Given it can\u2019t see cold, what it is seeing is impressive at 500 mb:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"403759\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403759\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-429.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-429.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-429.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ECMWF seasonal forecast map showing 500 mb height and anomaly for December 2025, with contour lines and color shading indicating different pressure levels across North America and the Arctic.\" class=\"wp-image-403759\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-429.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-429.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian Seasonal\u2019s winter forecast last year did the best. It\u2019s banging the drum for a cold one (as much as it can for now):<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"403762\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403762\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-431.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-431.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-431.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temperature anomaly map for December 2025 to February 2026, showing colder temperatures in the northern U.S. and warmer temperatures in the southern U.S.\" class=\"wp-image-403762\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-431.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-431.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last 10 days of runs from the CFSv2 Control echo the Canadian Seasonal to some extent:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"403764\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403764\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-433.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-433.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-433.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temperature anomaly map for the United States, highlighting expected temperatures for December 2025 to February 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-403764\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-433.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-433.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What is standing out to me is the CFSv2 SST forecast off the East Coast:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"122\" height=\"92\" data-attachment-id=\"403771\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403771\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-434.png?fit=122%2C92&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"122,92\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-434.png?fit=122%2C92&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-434.png?resize=122%2C92&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temperature anomaly map showing cooler areas in blue and warmer areas in orange along the East Coast.\" class=\"wp-image-403771\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.3261112544063278;width:349px;height:auto\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The warm ring is also getting closer to the West Coast than we have seen since the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"494\" data-attachment-id=\"403776\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403776\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-436.png?fit=640%2C494&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,494\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-436.png?fit=640%2C494&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-436.png?resize=640%2C494&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing CFSv2 seasonal sea surface temperature anomalies from December 2025 to February 2026, highlighting temperature variations across the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.\" class=\"wp-image-403776\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-436.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-436.png?resize=300%2C232&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That has a weak La Ni\u00f1a signature, but last year, the ONI did not even make the required period for an official La Ni\u00f1a event. It always seems to be too cold. I think a weak-to-nonexistent cool signal is on the way, and with more warm water close to the West Coast and cool water off the Northeast coast, it should allow for a lot of cold air to come into the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While I have no proof of this, the falling global temperatures might be something models are not handling well, as we have seen them too warm. This is the opposite of what the usual error has been over the last 10 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The question that is still in my mind is, what do we do with the start and end of the season (November and March)? Last year was a classic example of what can happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">January and February looked like this:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"403778\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403778\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-438.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,492\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-438.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-438.png?resize=550%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing climate division temperature anomalies in degrees Fahrenheit across the United States for January to February 2025, compared to the long-term average from 1991 to 2020.\" class=\"wp-image-403778\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-438.png?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-438.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">December \u2013 February was not as cold:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"403781\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403781\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-440.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,492\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-440.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-440.png?resize=550%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map displaying NOAA\/NCEI climate division temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit for December to February 2024-25 compared to the long-term average from 1991 to 2020.\" class=\"wp-image-403781\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-440.png?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-440.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">November to March, because of warming at the start and end, turned out warm:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"403783\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403783\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-442.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,492\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-442.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-442.png?resize=550%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map of the United States displaying climate division temperature anomalies for Nov to Mar 2024-25 compared to the 1991-2020 long-term average.\" class=\"wp-image-403783\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-442.png?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-442.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Links to 13-14, 14-15<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Interesting parallels to 2013 and 2014 are going on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both years had warmth in the Northeast Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"403785\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403785\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-444.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-444.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-444.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing sea surface temperature anomalies worldwide, with warmer areas in red and cooler areas in blue.\" class=\"wp-image-403785\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-444.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-444.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"403788\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403788\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-446.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-446.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-446.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing global sea surface temperature anomalies, highlighting warm and cold areas, with color gradient representing temperature variations.\" class=\"wp-image-403788\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-446.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-446.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both years had well-below-normal ACE index (so did 2015, but there was a Super Nino.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year is similar, though on weather roids in part due to a high input of geothermal sources from southwest of Japan to east of Kamchatka.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"403790\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403790\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-448.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-448.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-448.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global sea surface temperature anomalies map for September 2025, depicting varying temperature patterns across the world's oceans.\" class=\"wp-image-403790\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-448.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-448.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One might wonder, if this tropical dog stays down as we are seeing, will there be a link to winter? I guess the ultimate endgame would be a surge for a time, but a below normal average ace, and then we can test Thanksgiving to Christmas, but the bigger linkage is the DJF period of winter<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"492\" data-attachment-id=\"403793\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403793\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-450.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"550,492\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-450.png?fit=550%2C492&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-450.png?resize=550%2C492&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing composite temperature anomalies across the United States from December to February for the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 compared to the long-term average from 1991 to 2020, illustrating temperature variations with a color gradient.\" class=\"wp-image-403793\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-450.png?w=550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-450.png?resize=300%2C268&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Southern Hemispheric Stratospheric warming in September<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Please read this first of all:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.severe-weather.eu\/global-weather\/south-polar-vortex-stratospheric-warming-event-weather-winter-impact-usa-canada-fa\">https:\/\/www.severe-weather.eu\/global-weather\/south-polar-vortex-stratospheric-warming-event-weather-winter-impact-usa-canada-fa<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On a personal note, I love things like this. I see the love of the weather in the writing. But when I read it, I decided to look at September 2013 and 2014 to see if there was a stratwarm event over the S Pole then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bingo Front row:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"631\" data-attachment-id=\"403795\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403795\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?fit=640%2C631&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,631\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?fit=640%2C631&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?resize=640%2C631&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A weather forecast image showing temperature anomalies over Antarctica for September 2013-2014, featuring a color gradient from purple and blue to red and yellow, indicating varying temperature levels.\" class=\"wp-image-403795\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?resize=300%2C296&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-452.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, this is really interesting, as it\u2019s going on again.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"403798\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=403798\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-454.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-454.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-454.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Weather forecast map showing temperature anomalies and patterns, with a prominent low-pressure system illustrated in dark red, surrounded by varying shades of green and blue to indicate temperature changes across regions.\" class=\"wp-image-403798\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-454.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-454.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We have the NPAC link, the stratwarm link that they outline nicely, and the low ace for the hurricane season, along with the NE Pacific being so warm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Globally, the ACE in 13,14 was below normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Verdict<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It appears another back-weighted hurricane season is shaping up, and I have used that to predict pre-Christmas cold shots in both 2022 and last year. The ante is upped this year because SSTs in the Pacific are suggestive of the kind of pattern that can pump an Alaskan and Western ridge. This means that once the cold comes, it may hang around, barring any MJO rotation into the \u201ckiss of death\u201d for cold phases (Phases 4, 5, and 6). My hand-drawn map is more ambitious than the analogs, but after getting burned on being too warm on several forecasts this year (most distinctly, summer), I think the trend of models not seeing enough cold air may continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 5-month period could be colder, as we have seen models overwarmed overall since last winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Snowfall last year was weird, with streaks of heavy snow and a lack of snow in between. I would assume that a more normal distribution will show up this year relative to temperature, and the forecast map reflects that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would be surprised if it turns out warmer than what I have but not surprised if it turns out colder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The threat of a cold winter looms.<br \/>\nPlenty of blocking is expected over the Arctic.<br \/>\nA prominent Alaskan ridge should lead to plenty of cold air.<br \/>\nAnother Thanksgiving-to-Christmas cold period is on the table, but this time it may not break.<br \/>\nThe heart of the winter looks coldest relative to average, but there are questions as to how it starts and ends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":403802,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691838184,691826018,691822483,691818825,691820424,691826928],"class_list":["post-403748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-alaskan-ridge","tag-cold-air","tag-east-coast","tag-la-nina-2","tag-temperatures","tag-west-coast","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQNnnNCV_TThd9PUSP0dG3DvcbRfGJWgJDLRw9YAeAjLfVSFt1PK0B2iA0BJ9C8VEc1p-7MT0oU4NeUSC3qtvtDg71a9ECmoMSOPLbxHgn1bQTmSVuGMI98wvLC0bAMXwT6uOoiAiRBsPHixD11zCtxWTv2Z-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1H24","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":423355,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423355","url_meta":{"origin":403748,"position":0},"title":"Trap set over a month ago on the cold for man-made climate propagandists","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/27\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"They are going to come out of the woodwork, but fortunately, a nice trap was set for them over a month ago, using weather from over 40 years ago. Just before\u00a0the Ice Age scare of the 70s turned into Gore\u2019s Global Warming Apocalypse.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM8uEkBqD1HNUdkoSyrVSrgwCM919uGG-ER1uh10K75DKvbcfRRanQhwycx9-PoyPI7GG4FGUFpWCl27UzY8MBh98EIyh2mxnKZmAyGeX3m3M257KvdZAlEnr-aDwOoT2umc9pOAFDJWtdvLjTS5v2cbQ1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM8uEkBqD1HNUdkoSyrVSrgwCM919uGG-ER1uh10K75DKvbcfRRanQhwycx9-PoyPI7GG4FGUFpWCl27UzY8MBh98EIyh2mxnKZmAyGeX3m3M257KvdZAlEnr-aDwOoT2umc9pOAFDJWtdvLjTS5v2cbQ1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM8uEkBqD1HNUdkoSyrVSrgwCM919uGG-ER1uh10K75DKvbcfRRanQhwycx9-PoyPI7GG4FGUFpWCl27UzY8MBh98EIyh2mxnKZmAyGeX3m3M257KvdZAlEnr-aDwOoT2umc9pOAFDJWtdvLjTS5v2cbQ1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM8uEkBqD1HNUdkoSyrVSrgwCM919uGG-ER1uh10K75DKvbcfRRanQhwycx9-PoyPI7GG4FGUFpWCl27UzY8MBh98EIyh2mxnKZmAyGeX3m3M257KvdZAlEnr-aDwOoT2umc9pOAFDJWtdvLjTS5v2cbQ1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/AQM8uEkBqD1HNUdkoSyrVSrgwCM919uGG-ER1uh10K75DKvbcfRRanQhwycx9-PoyPI7GG4FGUFpWCl27UzY8MBh98EIyh2mxnKZmAyGeX3m3M257KvdZAlEnr-aDwOoT2umc9pOAFDJWtdvLjTS5v2cbQ1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":366209,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366209","url_meta":{"origin":403748,"position":1},"title":"Major Storm Pounds Western US\u2026Reaches Northeastern States This Weekend\u2026Very Cold Next Week\u2026Mid-Week East Coast Storm Threat","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A major storm system will pound the western states during the next couple of days and it will then trek across the nation and wreak havoc in the eastern states this weekend. In California, the rainfall in coming days will be heavy all along low-lying coastal sections from Oregon to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"cold air\"","block_context":{"text":"cold air","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cold-air"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0image-47.webp?fit=975%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0image-47.webp?fit=975%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0image-47.webp?fit=975%2C731&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0image-47.webp?fit=975%2C731&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":363765,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=363765","url_meta":{"origin":403748,"position":2},"title":"Al Gore\u2019s \u2018Climate Reality Project\u2019 claims: \u2018Super Cold? Thank the Climate Crisis\u2019 \u2013 \u2018As counter intuitive as it may seem\u2026Arctic warming appears to be\u2019 altering \u2018polar jet stream\u2026sending bitterly cold Arctic air diving unusually far south\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/28\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Despite the overall trend of warming winters, cold weather and snow can (and does) still happen as the globe continues to warm \u2013 as we\u2019ve seen just this week and sometimes in areas not accustomed to it. In fact, as counter intuitive as it may seem, rapid warming in the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Al Gore\"","block_context":{"text":"Al Gore","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=al-gore"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0636517827687329793-AP-CORRECTION-Russia-Cold-Weather.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426165","url_meta":{"origin":403748,"position":3},"title":"El Ni\u00f1o weather aspects: Summer, the hurricane season, and next winter","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/14\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The forecast calling for an El Ni\u00f1o makes sense in the context of the natural cycle of these events. But we\u2019re in a different world now, with oceans unusually warm nearly everywhere. The previous El Ni\u00f1o should be a wake-up call that the atmosphere\u2019s response is no longer behaving the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C749&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":416977,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=416977","url_meta":{"origin":403748,"position":4},"title":"Costly models costing dearly","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The reason I don\u2019t pick on the U.S. models is that they are so bad overall. In fact, I hardly even look at them anymore. The GEFS, which is the flagship ensemble model of the U.S. fleet, is last in skill score vs the European, Canadian, and, though not shown\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"forecasting models\"","block_context":{"text":"forecasting models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=forecasting-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQP1owmlkb2elbZMYX7TGhlWKFYyQuiWPxWRre2IoS5jYJGvmgGl_zXlOrjjPFbs_I_GqcNeQDJTqQk4azNW3GTfGMLoKaZGNW9N8pvr2m_bTsBL0TioaCQdQO_JVd-7EYTxcmHAPg3Tsb2tgUCL6DjsGYHSKw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQP1owmlkb2elbZMYX7TGhlWKFYyQuiWPxWRre2IoS5jYJGvmgGl_zXlOrjjPFbs_I_GqcNeQDJTqQk4azNW3GTfGMLoKaZGNW9N8pvr2m_bTsBL0TioaCQdQO_JVd-7EYTxcmHAPg3Tsb2tgUCL6DjsGYHSKw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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