{"id":403565,"date":"2025-09-20T19:43:47","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T17:43:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403565"},"modified":"2025-09-20T19:43:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-20T17:43:49","slug":"false-new-york-times-climate-change-isnt-causing-more-european-heat-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=403565","title":{"rendered":"False, New York Times, Climate Change Isn\u2019t Causing More European Heat Deaths"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Image<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In his The New York NYT<\/em> (NYT) article, \u201cClimate Change\u2019s Toll in Europe This Summer: Thousands of Extra Deaths,\u201d<\/a> reporter Raymond Zhong claims that severe heat in Europe this summer killed three times as many people as would have died in a world without human-caused warming. This is false. These are not real additional deaths, but estimates based on a modeling analysis of mortality trends across 854 European cities. Hard data on heat and cold mortality refutes the NYT\u2019s claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NYT reports that 24,400 deaths were attributable to the season\u2019s heat, compared to just 8,000 in a counterfactual world generated by computer model algorithms absent greenhouse gas emissions. To support its claims, the NYT quotes and cites the work of Dr. Malcolm Mistry of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who concludes that Europe\u2019s inability to keep pace with global warming shows a dangerous vulnerability, saying \u201cnearly all heat-related deaths are preventable.\u201d The NYT story further cites earlier research that estimated 61,000 people died during the 2022 summer heat across the continent, half of which it attributed directly to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NYT framing is deeply misleading. The first problem is that Mistry\u2019s analysis, by the article\u2019s admission, has yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. This means it\u2019s nothing more than a unsubstantiated opinion. Instead, Mistry\u2019s analysis relies on modeled \u201cearly estimates\u201d extrapolated from past mortality rates and climate model counterfactuals. That means the 24,400 figure is not based on actual death records, but on computer simulations. As anyone who has followed climate science closely knows, computer models are seriously flawed<\/a> and can be tuned to yield virtually any desired outcome. Models\u2019 projections are not equivalent to hard observational evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an attempt to frighten its readers, the NYT also omits crucial context, specifically that while heatwaves can indeed cause tragic deaths, data shows they aren\u2019t becoming more common or severe and far more people die from cold than heat. A comprehensive study in The Lancet<\/em> covering data from 43 countries found that cold weather kills about ten times more people than hot weather<\/a>. Europe, with its long, harsh winters, is especially vulnerable to cold-related mortality. This reality undermines the constant focus on summer heat as though it were the primary temperature-related health threat. If policymakers are genuinely concerned with saving lives, reducing cold-weather deaths should be a far higher priority than sensationalizing seasonal heatwaves. (See the Figure 1, below)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Bar
Figure 1. Global heat and cold related deaths graphed by region, from 2000-2019. Graph created by Willis Eschenbach from Monash study data.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Equally important is the fact that a single hot year is a weather anomaly, not an indication of long-term climate change which could only be reflected in a trend of increasing heat waves; a trend which does not exist. The NYT presents a single season\u2019s heat as though it was proof of a runaway climate crisis, yet meteorological records show that past heatwaves have been far more severe. Europe experienced devastating heat in 1540, when temperatures remained scorching for months.<\/a> Temperatures were significantly above normal, reaching over 40\u00b0C (104\u00b0F) in many areas, causing widespread crop failures and famine across the continent. Even within the instrument record, the 2003 European heatwave, which killed more than 70,000 people, remains unmatched in severity despite lower atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. As Climate at a Glance<\/a> points out, U.S. heatwaves were actually worse in the 1930s Dust Bowl era than they are today. Historical variability, not modern emissions alone, is the defining factor in extreme heat events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nor does the NYT acknowledge that 1.5\u00b0C of warming added to a heatwave peak makes little meaningful difference. If a city reaches 100\u00b0F during a heatwave, adding another 2.7\u00b0F is not what tips human health outcomes. What matters are pre-existing health conditions, housing quality, and access to cooling and hydration. A marginal increase in temperatures during an already hot event is does not make it less survivable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to the most glaring omission of all: Europe\u2019s persistent lack of air conditioning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A previous Climate Realism<\/em><\/a> article points out that fewer than 20 percent of European households have air conditioning, compared with over 90 percent in the United States. In countries like Germany, France, and the UK, air conditioning is not only rare but often discouraged or even restricted by regulations. In Switzerland, homeowners in some cantons face prohibitive rules against installing units. In Spain, energy efficiency mandates restrict cooling use. These policies mean millions of Europeans are far more exposed to heat than their American counterparts. Blaming climate change while ignoring the absence of air conditioning is misleading at best and irresponsible at worst. Figure 2 below, from an article by Fixr titled \u201cThe Use of AC Across the World: Putting America\u2019s Dependence Into Perspective<\/a>,\u201d clearly illustrates the difference between Europe and the rest of the developed world when it comes to air conditioning adoption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"World
Figure 2. Comparison of air conditioning adoption by country. Image by Fixr.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Even Sweden, cited in the NYT as a country where \u201cclimate change is now starting to lift summer temperatures into the range where they can harm human health,\u201d could mitigate the risk easily by adopting modern cooling infrastructure. Yet the political climate in much of Europe frames air conditioning as environmentally suspect, leaving populations vulnerable. To claim, as the NYT does, that global warming is to blame while failing to mention the preventable factor of inadequate cooling is to substitute ideology for analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent research published by both the International Journal of Biometeorology<\/a> and the International Energy Agency<\/a> both confirm that adaptation to heat, such as the wider adoption of air conditioning, saves thousands of lives each year, and could save more lives, for instance in Europe, if governments there didn\u2019t\u2019 discourage or forbid the technology\u2019s adoption. I guess the NYT decided that this good news was not among the \u201cNews that\u2019s fit to print,\u201d as its masthead proclaims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also a statistical trick at play. The study estimated that European summers would have been \u201c2.2\u00b0C cooler\u201d absent human emissions. But as Climate at a Glance explains<\/a>, the observed global warming over the past century amounts to about 1.1\u00b0C, not 2.2\u00b0C. The study doubled the attribution to make its estimates more dramatic, highlighting just how malleable modeling assumptions can be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, the NYT has presented a speculative, model-based estimate as though it were hard evidence of climate catastrophe. The paper neglects the overwhelming toll of cold weather deaths, ignores historical heat extremes worse than today, exaggerates the impact of a degree or two of warming, and sidesteps the obvious reality that inadequate adoption of air conditioning\u2014not carbon dioxide\u2014is what is responsible for European heat related deaths in recent decades, including this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The New York Times<\/em> has misled its readers, offering them a scary but ultimately false narrative of crisis rather than a sober assessment of facts. That may make for click-driving headlines, but it fails as serious journalism. The NYT\u2019s readers deserve better than a warmed-over tale of doom built on simulations, omissions, and half-truths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In his The New York NYT (NYT) article, \u201cClimate Change\u2019s Toll in Europe This Summer: Thousands of Extra Deaths,\u201d reporter Raymond Zhong claims that severe heat in Europe this summer killed three times as many people as would have died in a world without human-caused warming. This is false. These are not real additional deaths, but estimates based on a modeling analysis of mortality trends across 854 European cities. Hard data on heat and cold mortality refutes the NYT\u2019s claim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":403575,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Uncover the truth behind the NYT's misleading climate claims, revealing crucial context on heat-related deaths and air conditioning in Europe.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Exposing the NYT's Misleading Claims on European Heat Deaths","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691819743,691819680,691818583,691818087,691821107],"class_list":["post-403565","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-computer-model","tag-europe","tag-global-warming","tag-heat-deaths","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMhR_64Zhj8TWplhOsTVYZcDxPOActU-RtaTwo26EUX7GtDqgZ3X7DT1VMXYzcUx9_VFgrM0aX02utWsbLnPivm6rS47xnMlm5vr_wc0RR7dMif1qBoYuzbzw1bpN4d9LNylPm_5B08KwRBW5OBPkDOx3k3sw.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1GZ7","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":449343,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449343","url_meta":{"origin":403565,"position":0},"title":"No, New York Times, Climate Change Is Not Making Tennis Players Ill","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/08\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent article in The New York Times (NYT) suggests that climate change is increasingly endangering tennis players at the French Open, particularly those less inured to the heat, making them ill and unable to compete. 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