{"id":402020,"date":"2025-09-14T13:13:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-14T11:13:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=402020"},"modified":"2025-09-14T13:13:56","modified_gmt":"2025-09-14T11:13:56","slug":"systematic-attribution-of-heatwaves-to-the-emissions-of-carbon-majors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=402020","title":{"rendered":"Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon\u00a0majors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t Ian Magness<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Screenshot<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Extreme event attribution assesses how climate change affected climate extremes but typically focuses on single events. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, these attributions rarely quantify the extent to which anthropogenic actors have contributed to these events. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here we show that climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000\u20132023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This work relies on the expansion of a well-established event-based framework. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Owing to global warming since 1850\u20131900, the median of the heatwaves during 2000\u20132009 became about 20 times more likely, and about 200 times more likely during 2010\u20132019.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, one-quarter of these events were virtually impossible without climate change. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The emissions of the carbon majors contribute to half the increase in heatwave intensity since 1850\u20131900. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Depending on the carbon major, their individual contribution is high enough to enable the occurrence of 16\u201353 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible in a preindustrial climate. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We, therefore, establish that the influence of climate change on heatwaves has increased, and that all carbon majors, even the smaller ones, contributed substantially to the occurrence of heatwaves.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our results contribute to filling the evidentiary gap to establish accountability of historical climate extremes.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-025-09450-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve known for years that the weather attribution scam was really intended for legal action against fossil fuel companies.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This new paper makes this explicit now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a scientific study, it is a joke. It assumes, for a start, that all of the warming since the Little Ice Age is the result of CO2 emissions. And why don\u2019t they also look at the reduced incidence of extremely cold weather?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Above all, how can you assess the impact on society without looking at the wider economic implications. Whatever deleterious effect heatwaves have had, it is tiny compared to the overwhelming benefits brought to the world by fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve known for years that the weather attribution scam was really intended for legal action against fossil fuel companies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":402025,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the role of carbon majors in increasing heatwave intensity and uncover the impact of climate change on historical events.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding Heatwaves: Role of Carbon Majors in Climate Change","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691820974,691818087,691818236,691819281,691837953,691837954],"class_list":["post-402020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-co2-emissions","tag-global-warming","tag-heatwaves","tag-little-ice-age","tag-preindustrial-climate","tag-weather-attribution-scam","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQMcBbvsz0SvdwTDyTCAwH2qmYxSqh01bC1Nbc8Dusv9Hz5913cvZHZSoMb-ehyDEhj8ylRuLsB-tC2Gz4RG6XzvUVgeTJQe-MnRSHtB3ZKj5rWbeO-eI4d_3l_8eYKud22zvTaBDjmgOwc0mwd2p_fVKdaGtA-3.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1GAc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":402345,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=402345","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, The Guardian, Oil Company Operations Aren\u2019t Making Heatwaves Worse","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In The Guardian\u2019s article, \u201cCarbon emissions from oil giants directly linked to dozens of deadly heatwaves for first time,\u201d Damian Carrington reports on a study claiming that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from just 14 major fossil fuel companies were enough to cause more than 50 heatwaves that \u201cwould otherwise\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1930s Dust Bowl\"","block_context":{"text":"1930s Dust Bowl","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1930s-dust-bowl"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMEJ8xQofCYRvfhGcC6Mcv2PtJISsQ6u-X1L3PyzD5dge-wHNEdkKhnVpmlhU0Vg1YLGf4fEbIfYbJUqED32sswO4vXHrSOoJWYaZX0wXmXSx70epLQsHB61TJSa5qb-1.jpeg?fit=1000%2C608&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMEJ8xQofCYRvfhGcC6Mcv2PtJISsQ6u-X1L3PyzD5dge-wHNEdkKhnVpmlhU0Vg1YLGf4fEbIfYbJUqED32sswO4vXHrSOoJWYaZX0wXmXSx70epLQsHB61TJSa5qb-1.jpeg?fit=1000%2C608&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMEJ8xQofCYRvfhGcC6Mcv2PtJISsQ6u-X1L3PyzD5dge-wHNEdkKhnVpmlhU0Vg1YLGf4fEbIfYbJUqED32sswO4vXHrSOoJWYaZX0wXmXSx70epLQsHB61TJSa5qb-1.jpeg?fit=1000%2C608&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMEJ8xQofCYRvfhGcC6Mcv2PtJISsQ6u-X1L3PyzD5dge-wHNEdkKhnVpmlhU0Vg1YLGf4fEbIfYbJUqED32sswO4vXHrSOoJWYaZX0wXmXSx70epLQsHB61TJSa5qb-1.jpeg?fit=1000%2C608&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":381095,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=381095","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":1},"title":"Climate Attribution Lawfare Hits New Low with 2021 Heat Wave Lawsuit","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In yet another theatrical act of lawfare against the fossil fuel industry, Misti Leon has launched a wrongful death lawsuit against seven oil and gas companies, alleging they were responsible for the tragic passing of her mother, Juliana Leon, during the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave. The legal argument? That anthropogenic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-09_40_40.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-09_40_40.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-09_40_40.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/ChatGPT-Image-21.-Mai-2025-09_40_40.png?fit=800%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":436025,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=436025","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":2},"title":"No, NPR, Climate Change Didn\u2019t Cause the Recent Heatwave","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/31\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"National Public Radio (NPR) recently posted an interview, titled \u201cHow climate change has powered the heat wave blanketing much of the U.S.\u201d claiming the recent March heat dome is something that \u201chas not happened to this level before\u201d and that climate change is the reason record highs are outpacing record\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1930s Dust Bowl\"","block_context":{"text":"1930s Dust Bowl","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1930s-dust-bowl"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG-55.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG-55.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG-55.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/OIG-55.jpg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":434626,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=434626","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":3},"title":"No, Associated Press, This Southwest Heatwave Was Not \u2018Virtually Impossible\u2019 Without Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/27\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Associated Press (AP) story titled \u201cRecords shattered as summer heat hits Southwest in March; \u2018This is what climate change looks like\u2019\u201d claims the recent Southwest heatwave is the latest proof that climate change is driving \u201cultra extremes.\u201d This is highly misleading and unsupported by real-world data. The story\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1930s Dust Bowl\"","block_context":{"text":"1930s Dust Bowl","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1930s-dust-bowl"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":321165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=321165","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":4},"title":"Wrong, BBC and Reuters, No Evidence Proves West African Heatwave Is Unprecedented","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Multiple media outlets, including the BBC and Reuters, claim that a recent West African heatwave would be \u201cimpossible\u201d without global warming. This is claim is misleading and not supported by real-world data. The study cited in both articles is merely an attribution modelling study, which is not proof of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC and Reuters\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC and Reuters","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc-and-reuters"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/09719heatwavepng.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/09719heatwavepng.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/09719heatwavepng.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/09719heatwavepng.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/09719heatwavepng.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":334326,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=334326","url_meta":{"origin":402020,"position":5},"title":"No, BBC, It Was Not An Extreme Heatwave In\u00a0Phoenix","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/24\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As usual the BBC rely on Weather Attribution models which are clearly fraudulent, and designed for propaganda purposes only. Given that this heatwave was not even extreme, the rest of the claim is plainly a con-trick.","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/05e2d0b90d2e067bbaaadb94b_phoenix-skyline-midtown-sunset-p-2000.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/05e2d0b90d2e067bbaaadb94b_phoenix-skyline-midtown-sunset-p-2000.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/05e2d0b90d2e067bbaaadb94b_phoenix-skyline-midtown-sunset-p-2000.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/05e2d0b90d2e067bbaaadb94b_phoenix-skyline-midtown-sunset-p-2000.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/05e2d0b90d2e067bbaaadb94b_phoenix-skyline-midtown-sunset-p-2000.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=402020"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":402027,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402020\/revisions\/402027"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/402025"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=402020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=402020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=402020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}