{"id":401391,"date":"2025-09-11T09:15:06","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T07:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401391"},"modified":"2025-09-11T09:15:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T07:15:08","slug":"wind-constraint-payments-could-hit-12-billion-a-year-under-labours-2030-plan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401391","title":{"rendered":"Wind Constraint Payments Could Hit \u00a312 Billion A Year Under Labour\u2019s 2030\u00a0Plan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Aerial<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We currently moan about having to pay a couple of hundred millions or so to persuade wind farms to switch off, but that will soon be the tip of the iceberg, as the Telegraph report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ed Miliband can deliver his <\/em>net zero vision<\/em><\/a>, a windy day should be a good day for Britain.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Energy Secretary\u2019s clean power plans, it should mean lots of turbines \u2013 mostly in Scotland \u2013 spinning furiously and generating plentiful green power for the electricity grid, in theory.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in reality, this is not what always happens.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Britain has an unexpected problem: there are too many wind farms for the grid to handle, with the country\u2019s north-to-south power lines lacking the capacity to carry away all the electricity created.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It means that every week, grid operators are instead having to throw a huge amount of power away \u2013 all while paying wind farm owners millions of pounds for what is effectively \u201cphantom\u201d generation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2025\/09\/09\/net-zero-dirty-secret-risks-costing-britain-billions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We currently moan about having to pay a couple of hundred millions or so to persuade wind farms to switch off, but that will soon be the tip of the iceberg, as the Telegraph report:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Ed Miliband can deliver his <\/em>net zero vision<\/em><\/a>, a windy day should be a good day for Britain.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Energy Secretary\u2019s clean power plans, it should mean lots of turbines \u2013 mostly in Scotland \u2013 spinning furiously and generating plentiful green power for the electricity grid, in theory.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But in reality, this is not what always happens.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, Britain has an unexpected problem: there are too many wind farms for the grid to handle, with the country\u2019s north-to-south power lines lacking the capacity to carry away all the electricity created.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It means that every week, grid operators are instead having to throw a huge amount of power away \u2013 all while paying wind farm owners millions of pounds for what is effectively \u201cphantom\u201d generation.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/business\/2025\/09\/09\/net-zero-dirty-secret-risks-costing-britain-billions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matt Oliver, the Industry Editor, goes on to warn that the bill could reach \u00a38 billion a year by 2030, according to NESO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, as is often the case with the Telegraph and Net Zero, Oliver proceeds to get the story wrong by claiming this will all be because of lack of grid capacity. The National Grid is already planning to spend tens of billions on upgrading the network, which will largely deal with the problem of getting power from wind farms to customer. And most of the extra renewable coming forward will be from the North Sea, not Scotland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real problem come 2030 won\u2019t be the grid, it will be the oversupply of intermittent wind and solar power at times, for which there will not be enough demand to absorb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take yesterday as an example, quite a typical day weather wise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wind and solar power supplied just over half our electricity, 15 GW. Under mad Miliband\u2019s plans to triple wind and solar, we would be generating 45 GW, plus another 4 GW of nuclear from Hinkley and Sizewell B, which cannot be switched off.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A
https:\/\/grid.iamkate.com\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

We would therefore have 20 GW too much, even supposing you could store enough electricity to balance out supply during the day. That adds up to 480 GWh a day, or 175 TWh a year, if it happened every day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will of course be many days when there is not enough power to go round, but it gives an indication of the huge amounts of electricity we will have to throw away. To have enough renewable capacity to meet demand on low wind days, you have to build so much that you will inevitably have far too much at other times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NESO did the sums in their Clean Power 2030 Report last November, which I covered here<\/a>. Their modelling showed just how volatile generation will be. Virtually all the time, there will be either too much or too little power on the system:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Graph
https:\/\/www.neso.energy\/document\/346781\/download<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

They reckon that 22 TWh will need to be curtailed, with another 41 TWh of surplus power exported –\u00a0 a total of 63 TWh, which is a third of the projected offshore wind output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In all, NESO\u00a0 estimate the cost of curtailment, losses on exports and storage of excess power at \u00a325\/MWh, which works out at \u00a38.9 billion a year. This is on top of the existing cost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, NESO\u2019s figures already look too low. Their expectation that we can export two thirds of our surplus appears to be ridiculously optimistic, given that the rest of NW Europe will also have too much wind power at the time that we do. If we can find somebody to buy, we will be extremely lucky to get the projected \u00a340\/MWh for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At worst, assuming we can export none of it, the cost of curtailment will increase by \u00a31.6 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NESO have also underestimated the average strike price of wind and solar, which will determine the cost of curtailment \u2013 CfD generators won\u2019t settle for less, and most of those with ROC subsidies will demand even more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the vastly increased strike prices on offer in AR7, introduced after NESO\u2019s report was published, the weighted average will probably be over \u00a3100\/MWh. That would add another \u00a31.3 billion to the bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Add that lot up, and we are looking at close to \u00a312 billion a year, over \u00a3400 per household.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NESO have not even bothered to include the cost of grid expansion in their Clean Power 2030 Report. OFGEM<\/a> have estimated it will cost \u00a380 billion by 2030 to upgrade the grid to cope with increased demand and connect Scotland and the North Sea to consumers in England. Somebody will have to pay that back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bar<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We currently moan about having to pay a couple of hundred millions or so to persuade wind farms to switch off, but that will soon be the tip of the iceberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":401407,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover how Britain may face wind constraint payments soaring to \u00a312 billion a year due to grid capacity issues and oversupply of renewable energy.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"\u00a312 Billion Wind Farm Payments: Britain's Energy Dilemma","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831956,691837888,691831484,691818247,691818154,691818852],"class_list":["post-401391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-clean-power-2030","tag-constraint-payments","tag-energy-secretary-ed-miliband","tag-national-grid","tag-net-zero","tag-wind-power","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/AQOSg-GMAySmWroobLYZhIXmAPsh7qo3s9e4J2qLBSbf_hTbXBdOqhkkuJz-PePYfWrcTBts-kYbsmXH6E2EZ-vgungVg-yTK3PKGbuCJ37O10obrSY0ntpczCg85vC0wIY6Bz39nA65X-C2bWxcDs8t5rMrg.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Gq3","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":292083,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292083","url_meta":{"origin":401391,"position":0},"title":"Wind 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