{"id":397664,"date":"2025-08-25T15:36:50","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T13:36:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397664"},"modified":"2025-08-25T15:36:52","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T13:36:52","slug":"change-in-reflected-solar-electro-magnetic-radiation-during-ceres-era","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397664","title":{"rendered":"Change in Reflected Solar Electro-Magnetic Radiation During CERES Era"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"397682\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397682\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A view of Earth from space, with the Sun shining brightly in the background, illuminating the planet's surface, which shows land masses and clouds.\" class=\"wp-image-397682\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=768%2C768&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=600%2C600&amp;ssl=1 600w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=400%2C400&amp;ssl=1 400w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=200%2C200&amp;ssl=1 200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/wattsupwiththat.com\/2025\/08\/24\/change-in-reflected-solar-electro-magnetic-radiation-during-ceres-era\/\">Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Richard Willoughby<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article examines the seasonal variation in Earth\u2019s reflectivity through the CERES era.&nbsp; Changes in solar forcing over the same period are examined with the objective of identifying possible linkages to the measured change in reflectivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The primary driver of the changes in solar forcing over the 15 year observational interval is identified then assessed to show why there will be a reversal of this particular change by 2037.&nbsp; This introduces the prospect of the reducing trend in reflectivity being reversed by 2037; noting that seasonal cycle change in solar forcing will revert to the longer term trend that has caused the NH to gradually warm over the past 300 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The article concludes by pointing out the Earth\u2019s reflectivity is primarily a function of ice\/snow and the available solar EMR that can be reflected.&nbsp; There is no reflection off ice\/snow when the daily solar is zero as occurs each year in the polar regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project provides satellite-based observations sufficient to enable fair estimates of Earth\u2019s radiation balance.\u00a0 The satellite-based instruments have been calibrated to match the ocean heat content as determined by the Argo Ocean submersible drones.\u00a0 The first CERES mission began in 1997 but the reflected electro-magnetic radiation (EMR) for this analysis was not available till 2004.\u00a0 The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/neo.gsfc.nasa.gov\/about\/\">NASA NEO<\/a>\u00a0data used here only has full year data from 2007.\u00a0 The most recent full year is 2024.\u00a0 The analysis considers changes to 2024 relative to 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart 1 displays the monthly area averaged reflected solar EMR for both hemispheres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"453\" data-attachment-id=\"397665\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397665\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?fit=955%2C598&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"955,598\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?fit=723%2C453&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?resize=723%2C453&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bar chart showing monthly reflected solar electromagnetic radiation (EMR) in watts per square meter for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in red and Southern Hemisphere (SH) in blue for the year 2024.\" class=\"wp-image-397665\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?w=955&amp;ssl=1 955w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-496.png?resize=768%2C481&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Both hemispheres exhibit similar annual cycles with reflected EMR peak in mid-summer.\u00a0 The June average in the northern hemispheres is 136.3W\/m\u00b2 while the December average in the southern hemisphere is 152.7W\/m\u00b2.\u00a0 These summer peaks are dominated by high reflectivity of ocean and land ice\/snow rather than clouds.\u00a0 Also, the polar regions have high monthly average solar EMR in summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart 2 examines the monthly reflected EMR over just land masses, which includes any permanent ocean ice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"450\" data-attachment-id=\"397667\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397667\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?fit=952%2C593&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"952,593\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?fit=723%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?resize=723%2C450&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bar chart displaying monthly reflected electro-magnetic radiation (EMR) over land for 2024 by hemisphere, showing comparisons between the Northern Hemisphere (red) and Southern Hemisphere (blue).\" class=\"wp-image-397667\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?w=952&amp;ssl=1 952w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?resize=300%2C187&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-497.png?resize=768%2C478&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The land exhibits similar annual cycle to the total but the summer peaks are somewhat higher.\u00a0 June average is 154.9W\/m\u00b2 while December average is 219.2W\/m\u00b2.\u00a0 Again, the summer highs are due to the high reflectivity of permanent ice\/snow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Changes in Reflected EMR over Land<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Land has a faster thermal response to changes in surface insolation than the oceans so the changes in reflected EMR over land give a more immediate response compared with the muted response of the oceans.\u00a0 Accordingly, Chart 3 displays the change in monthly area averaged reflected EMR over land and permanent sea ice in 2024 relative to 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"455\" data-attachment-id=\"397668\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397668\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?fit=947%2C596&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"947,596\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?fit=723%2C455&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?resize=723%2C455&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A bar chart illustrating the change in monthly reflected solar electromagnetic radiation (EMR) over land from 2007 to 2024, comparing the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in red and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) in blue.\" class=\"wp-image-397668\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?w=947&amp;ssl=1 947w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?resize=300%2C189&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-498.png?resize=768%2C483&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The annual average over all land is down by 1.06W\/m\u00b2 but there is considerable month-to-month variation.\u00a0 The NH displays some cyclic regularity while the SH is more random.\u00a0 The November peak of 6.02W\/m\u00b2 is an outlier and begs closer examination per Image 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"428\" data-attachment-id=\"397671\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397671\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?fit=948%2C561&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"948,561\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?fit=723%2C428&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?resize=723%2C428&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A global map depicting variations in reflected solar electromagnetic radiation (EMR) over land and ocean, with color gradients illustrating changes in reflectivity in various regions.\" class=\"wp-image-397671\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?resize=300%2C178&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-500.png?resize=768%2C454&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The higher November reflectivity in the SH is the result of increased cloud over tropical and temperate land.&nbsp; This leads the monsoon cycle in these regions so is related to increased moist air advection from the tropical oceans rather than convective instability over the land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Changing Solar Forcing and Advection<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"397673\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397673\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?fit=953%2C596&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"953,596\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?fit=723%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?resize=723%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chart visualizing daily solar forcing in Northern Hemisphere for 2024, showing Solar EMR values in W\/m\u00b2 across various latitudes.\" class=\"wp-image-397673\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?w=953&amp;ssl=1 953w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-501.png?resize=768%2C480&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earth\u2019s positional relationship with the Sun is not perfectly periodic over any time cycle.&nbsp; The two bodies have continual movement relative to each other.&nbsp; The positional variation changes the solar intensity reaching Earth and those changes drive changes in Earth\u2019s climate.&nbsp; Chart 4 examines solar intensity at 15N and 50N through 2024 to consider how the difference in solar forcing contributes to poleward advection in the NH.&nbsp; The Earth to Sun positional data used for these calculations was generated by&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ssd.jpl.nasa.gov\/horizons\/app.html#\/\">JPL\u2019s Horizons App<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apart from early summer, the solar intensity at 15N is higher than the solar intensity at 50N.&nbsp; However the oceans have slower thermal response compared with land so there will be a lagged response between poleward advection and the difference in solar intensity from low latitude to high latitude.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart 5 now considers how the difference in latitudinal forcing has changed in 2024 relative to 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"397674\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397674\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?fit=951%2C595&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"951,595\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?fit=723%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?resize=723%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line chart showing the change in daily solar driving poleward advection in the Northern Hemisphere for the years 2024 and 2007, with differences in solar intensity plotted against angular position over a yearly cycle.\" class=\"wp-image-397674\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?w=951&amp;ssl=1 951w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-502.png?resize=768%2C481&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The difference curves for 2024 and 2007 appear identical on the left hand scale but the annual cycle becomes apparent when the delta is displayed against the right hand scale.&nbsp; The range from peak to peak over the annual cycle is slightly above 0.6W\/m\u00b2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Charts 6 and 7 provide similar daily solar EMR for the SH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"901\" data-attachment-id=\"397675\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397675\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?fit=952%2C1186&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"952,1186\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?fit=723%2C901&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?resize=723%2C901&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chart 6 displays daily solar electro-magnetic radiation (EMR) levels driving poleward advection in the Southern Hemisphere for 2024, showing values at 15S and 50S latitudes.\" class=\"wp-image-397675\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?resize=822%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 822w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?resize=241%2C300&amp;ssl=1 241w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?resize=768%2C957&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-503.png?w=952&amp;ssl=1 952w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The delta 2024 relative to 2007 for the SH has a similar range of 0.6W\/m\u00b2 while the peaks are narrower in the SH compared with the NH.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Solar and Reflectivity Changes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The delta in solar forcing peaking in October in the SH is consistent with increased cloud cover over tropical land in the SH in November.&nbsp; There is also some consistency in the NH between the annual cycle in the delta in solar forcing and the increase then decrease of reflectivity in the NH.&nbsp; Neither of these observations are compelling though.&nbsp; On the other hand the delta in forcing over the 15 year period is of similar magnitude to the reduction in reflectivity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Looking ahead to 2037<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the delta in solar forcing from year-to-year is a driver of Earth\u2019s reflectivity then the response over the past 15 years can be used as a basis for prediction.&nbsp; Chart 8 offers the delta in solar forcing for both hemispheres to 2037 relative to 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"453\" data-attachment-id=\"397677\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397677\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?fit=948%2C594&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"948,594\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?fit=723%2C453&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?resize=723%2C453&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph showing the change in daily solar driving poleward advection for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in red and Southern Hemisphere (SH) in blue, projected from 2024 to 2037. The y-axis represents delta in watts per square meter (W\/m\u00b2), while the x-axis represents time in days. Both hemispheres display distinct annual cycles with positive and negative values throughout the year.\" class=\"wp-image-397677\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?w=948&amp;ssl=1 948w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-504.png?resize=768%2C481&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The delta to 2037 relative to 2024 exhibits a reversal in seasons in the hemispheres compared with 2024 relative to 2007 and almost a 10-fold increase in range.\u00a0 This reversal is due to the movement of the Sun in and out of Earth\u2019s orbital plane as shown in Chart 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"397678\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397678\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?fit=953%2C596&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"953,596\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?fit=723%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?resize=723%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph depicting the Sun's movement relative to Earth's orbital plane from 2000 to 2040, showing fluctuations in distance out of plane in astronomical units (AU).\" class=\"wp-image-397678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?w=953&amp;ssl=1 953w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?resize=300%2C188&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-505.png?resize=768%2C480&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2007 the Sun was south of Earth\u2019s orbital plane near a minimum while in 2024 the Sun was North of Earth\u2019s orbital plane close to a maximum.&nbsp; This slight movement out of plane changes the declination of the Sun relative to Earth\u2019s axis of rotation.&nbsp; By 2037, the Sun will be almost in plane with Earth\u2019s orbit and that reduces the solar intensity in the NH but increases solar intensity in the SH.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earth\u2019s reflectivity depends primarily on permanent ice\/snow on land, temporary ice\/snow that forms on land, permanent ice\/snow on oceans, temporary ice\/snow on oceans and temporary ice in the atmosphere.&nbsp; The amount of reflected solar is a function of the solar intensity; the reflectivity of the ice or snow surface the EMR encounters and the amount of ice present across the globe on any day.&nbsp; Overall, the complexity involved in solar EMR not being thermalised due to Earth\u2019s albedo cannot be overstated.&nbsp; Over the CERES period, Earth\u2019s reflectivity has reduced.&nbsp; There appears to be some linkage between the changes in reflectivity and changes in the solar forcing that drives poleward advection.&nbsp; The seasonal reversal of the forcing change driving poleward advection over the next decade introduces the prospect of the reducing trend in reflectivity reversing over the next decade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This analysis shows that permanent ice\/snow is the most significant factor in summer reflectivity in both hemispheres and that is obviously linked to the high average daily intensity of the summer insolation at high latitudes.&nbsp; It is also apparent that there is significant year-to-year changes in seasonal solar intensity that could cause changes in advection that would change cloud cover and reflectivity but thorough analysis of that is beyond the scope of this article.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any year-to-year changes in solar forcing have to be considered in the context of longer climate trends.&nbsp; Chart 10 shows how the solar EMR at 40N and 40S will change from 1850 (the year of perfect weather) to 2100.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"448\" data-attachment-id=\"397680\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397680\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?fit=962%2C596&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"962,596\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?fit=723%2C448&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?resize=723%2C448&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Line graph depicting changing solar electro-magnetic radiation (EMR) across selected latitudes (40N and 40S) from 1850 to 2100, with solar EMR values in W\/m\u00b2 on the vertical axis and day of the year on the horizontal axis. Red line represents 40N latitudes, while the blue line represents 40S latitudes.\" class=\"wp-image-397680\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?w=962&amp;ssl=1 962w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?resize=300%2C186&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-506.png?resize=768%2C476&amp;ssl=1 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The curves in Chart 10 are more indicative of the longer-term seasonal changes in solar intensity, possibly slightly lower than the mid-range of the extremes from specific year to specific year.\u00a0 The NH is experiencing an increase in the warming season solar intensity from March solstice to June equinox and a similar reduction in the late summer-autumn period.\u00a0 These changes are already apparent in the NH ocean warming and the increased early season snowfall in the NH.\u00a0 The increasing snowfall in the NH is presently offset by accelerating spring melt in most locations.\u00a0 An important exception is that the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.sciencenews.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/042920_MT_ice_inline-desktop.png?w=680&amp;ssl=1\">Greenland plateau is already gaining altitude<\/a>; keeping in mind glaciers first form at altitude then migrate down slope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The SH has much lower seasonal swing with the increase in spring solar EMR of about 1W\/m\u00b2 being the only notable change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article raises the prospect of solar forcing being a key factor in reducing Earth\u2019s reflectivity through the CERES era but fails in making a convincing connection.&nbsp; It also suggests the trend could reverse in the coming decade as poleward forcing reverses seasons to the long term trend.&nbsp; A reversal to increasing reflectivity over the coming decade would strengthen the connection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Understanding Earth\u2019s reflectivity requires a comprehensive knowledge of ice formation and disappearance across the globe.&nbsp; That requires an understanding of how the solar intensity is changing because ice forming is energy intensive as is ice loss.&nbsp; All ice began life as water in an ocean.&nbsp; The ice that forms in the atmosphere and then settles on land had to be liberated from the ocean surface and into the atmosphere.&nbsp; Evaporation of water is energy intensive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Understanding climate change on Earth is primarily based on understanding Earth\u2019s physical relationship with the Sun and the ice forming and ice loss processes on land, oceans and atmosphere.&nbsp; It is also&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/lasp.colorado.edu\/sorce\/data\/tsi-data\/\">apparent that the solar \u201cconstant\u201d<\/a>&nbsp;is not constant and has a role in climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The misdirected demonising of CO\u2082 has resulted in climate models that are blind to seasonal changes in solar intensity across the hemispheres and naively embody parameterisation of ice forming and ice loss processes that are disconnected from physical reality.&nbsp; The models have created a widely held cargo cult styled primitive belief that eliminating burning of carbon and hydro-carbon fuels will deliver perfect weather that existed on Earth in 1850.&nbsp; Climate models underpin the notion that eliminating use of carbon and hydro-carbon fuels will deliver perfect weather with no destructive storms; no heat waves; no blizzards; gentler cyclones; just the right amount of rain; no deserts; no floods; perfect seasons; perfect crops and so on \u2013 all things good.&nbsp; France would not have experienced destructive wild fires in 2025 if humans had not burnt carbon and hydro-carbon fuels.&nbsp; Childish, na\u00efve beliefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Author<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Richard Willoughby is a retired electrical engineer having worked in the Australian mining and mineral processing industry for 30 years with roles in large scale operations, corporate R&amp;D and mine development.&nbsp; A further ten years was spent in the global insurance industry as an engineering risk consultant where he developed an enduring interest in natural catastrophes and changing climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This article examines the seasonal variation in Earth\u2019s reflectivity through the CERES era.\u00a0 Changes in solar forcing over the same period are examined with the objective of identifying possible linkages to the measured change in reflectivity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":397682,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore Earth's changing reflectivity and solar forcing from the CERES era, predicting a reversal trend by 2037. Discover the connection!","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Understanding Earth's Reflectivity Changes: A CERES Analysis","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691837484,691837485,691834892,691823356],"class_list":{"0":"post-397664","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-clouds-and-the-earths-radiant-energy-system-ceres-2","10":"tag-earths-reflectivity","11":"tag-electro-magnetic-radiation-emr","12":"tag-solar-forcing","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPRx03Ab9b22RU3_YepCvVM61ax_ke3XIaPITVugQIvk8GUpZSC4Bc2kBLrC2UtSX_NeZgK5qvI_gVOnFXMQL2htX6kIEeepMR0VNcjLQoKrIS3hY9redwii3V-WwEHV5UC8LVjbV-WCgZnkI3C2cJjMUVsnA-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1FrW","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":338319,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338319","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":0},"title":"Unconventional Sign Conventions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The CERES project has advanced the state-of-the-art in Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) observations through improved accuracy of the CERES instruments and extensive use of coincident higher spatial resolution spectral imager measurements on both low-Earth orbit and geostationary platforms. CERES involves a high level of data fusion. During the CERES period,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ceres\"","block_context":{"text":"Ceres","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":337742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337742","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":1},"title":"Nikolov &amp; Zeller: Misrepresentation of Critical Satellite Data by\u00a0IPCC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) concluded \u201cIt is very likely that well-mixed GHGs [greenhouse gases] were the main driver of tropospheric warming since 1979\u201d (IPCC, 2021; p.5).","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES data\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":358490,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358490","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":2},"title":"New Study: The Warming Trend Since 2013 Explained by Increases in Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/12\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Instead, a\u00a0new study\u00a0published in the journal\u00a0Science\u00a0contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W\/m\u00b2\/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively), explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth\u2019s surface, warming it.)","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":198525,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=198525","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":3},"title":"Ned Nikolov &#038; Karl Zeller: Exact Calculations of Climate Sensitivities Reveal the True Cause of Recent Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m delighted Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller have chosen the Talkshop as the venue for the publication of this new open peer review paper on climate sensitivity. Scientific advance at the cutting edge has always been the most important aim of this blog, and I think this paper truly is\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340498","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":4},"title":"\u00a0Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing\u2026Human Climate Forcing \u2018Does Not Exist In Reality\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.","rel":"","context":"In \"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]\"","block_context":{"text":"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=eei-earths-energy-imbalance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342670,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342670","url_meta":{"origin":397664,"position":5},"title":"Satellite Observations Confirm 2000-\u201922 Warming Has Been Due To An Increasing Solar Radiation Trend","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Satellite observations from CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) indicate cloud cover has been declining since 2000. Declining cloud cover has meant less shortwave radiation has been reflected to space, resulting in an increase in the solar radiation absorbed by the Earth\u2019s surface (ocean).","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System)\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-clouds-and-the-earths-radiant-energy-system"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0AdobeStock_266865139.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=397664"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":397684,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397664\/revisions\/397684"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/397682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=397664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=397664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=397664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}