{"id":397652,"date":"2025-08-25T08:12:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T06:12:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397652"},"modified":"2025-08-25T08:12:23","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T06:12:23","slug":"pielke-jr-a-takeover-of-the-ipcc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397652","title":{"rendered":"Pielke Jr. \u2013A Takeover of the IPCC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Pielke Jr.\u2019s\u00a0\u201cA Takeover of the IPCC\u201d<\/a>\u00a0offers a timely post-mortem on what\u2019s left of scientific rigor in the world\u2019s most influential climate assessment body, of which Pielke Jr. has long been a supporter. The article chronicles not just a change in personnel at the IPCC, but a seismic shift in methodology and purpose\u2014a transformation best described as a hostile takeover by advocates of \u201cExtreme Event Attribution\u201d (EEA). The implications for public policy, scientific integrity, and even the basic credibility of climate science are staggering, and long overdue for public scrutiny.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A
https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/a-takeover-of-the-ipcc<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Pielke is unambiguous from the opening lines:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe IPCC\u2019s longstanding framework for detection and attribution looks DOA in AR7\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The gravestone image\u2014marking the death of the IPCC\u2019s \u201cDetection and Attribution Framework, 1988\u20132025\u201d\u2014sets the tone. What we are witnessing is the burial, not of a bureaucratic process, but of one of the last vestiges of disciplined scientific skepticism inside the IPCC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He explains,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe author list for its Chapter 3\u2014Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes\u2014suggests strongly that the IPCC will be shifting from its longstanding focus on detection and attribution (D&A) of extreme events to a focus on \u2018extreme event attribution\u2019 (EEA)\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This isn\u2019t an arcane distinction. The traditional D&A framework involved the slow, often frustrating, but necessary work of looking for actual changes in the statistics of weather over many decades and then trying to assign causes\u2014usually with a healthy dose of uncertainty and humility about what could or could not be claimed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here, the IPCC\u2019s previous D&A approach was<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cscientifically rigorous, consistent with the IPCC\u2019s definition of climate change, and treats extreme events in the same manner as other phenomena, like global temperatures and sea level rise.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, Pielke states,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe EEA approach is scientifically problematic, inconsistent with the IPCC\u2019s findings on extreme weather, and is explicitly grounded in climate advocacy\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In other words, we are trading disciplined science for press releases, advocacy, and, more insidiously, ammunition for climate litigation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pielke takes care to document the makeup of the new IPCC author list for Chapter 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe chapter\u2019s author list shows that it is stacked with people who focus on extreme event attribution\u2014far out of proportion to their presence in the field. With the help of Google Scholar and ChatGPT I created the table below, which shows that 9 of the chapter\u2019s 20 authors focus their research on extreme event attribution. Two of the three coordinating lead authors focus on EEA. Few of the authors, if any, have expertise in the IPCC\u2019s conventional framework for detection and attribution, and so have no publications on either detection or attribution\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The table spells this out visually: only a minority of the authors have any background in the original detection and attribution methodology. Instead, there\u2019s a glut of \u201cattributionists\u201d\u2014scientists whose careers are based not on understanding long-term climate shifts, but on drawing direct lines from today\u2019s weather headlines to anthropogenic climate change. This is not \u201cscience as a conversation,\u201d it\u2019s science as a megaphone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pielke provides a textbook example with the recent coverage of flooding in Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cWorld Weather Attribution (WWA) in the media (6 Aug 2025): \u2018Every tenth of a degree of warming will lead to heavier monsoon rainfall, highlighting why a rapid transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is so urgent.\u2019 The WWA analysis (not peer-reviewed, issued as a press release) claimed: \u2018Historical trends associated with global warming in observational datasets show the 30-day maximum rainfall over the study region is now approximately 22% more intense . . . heavy rainfall events such as this one are expected to become more frequent and intense.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But as Pielke points out, this narrative falls apart under actual scientific scrutiny. A new peer-reviewed study, published July 9, 2025, concluded: \u201c\u2018[U]nderstanding how climate change affects monsoon regions in South Asia is not straightforward, contrary to what some media commentators suggested when reporting the Pakistan floods in 2022.\u2019\u201d Even more damning, their projections indicate \u201ca non-significant reduction by approximately 5% of the ensemble mean rainfall has been found.\u201d And a 2022 study on flood incidence? \u201cAnnual maximum flows exhibited negative trends at 15 (10 significant) stations while positive trends were shown at 7 (2 significant) between 1981 and 2016 . . . Counter to common belief, the most profound and decreasing pattern of flows was observed in summer\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These claims are, as Pielke notes, \u201cimpossible to reconcile.\u201d Is Pakistan\u2019s flooding getting worse? Is it tied to climate change at all? Is rainfall going up or down? Are emissions reductions relevant to monsoon behavior? The science\u2014when you look past the headlines and advocacy\u2014simply doesn\u2019t support the sweeping certainty promoted by extreme event attributionists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He notes that media outlets have become complicit in this shift, echoing EEA talking points without any critical scrutiny. The New York Times, for example, reports, \u201cOnce a Source of Life and Renewal, Monsoon Brings Death to Pakistan . . . climate change has brought a catastrophic new normal to the country.\u201d Pielke retorts, \u201cIn reality, there is no \u2018new normal.\u2019 Pakistan has long been one of the most flood prone and flood impacted nations on the planet\u201d. Table 1 backs this up, listing deadly floods going back decades\u2014a grim but factual reminder that disasters are a feature of history, not a \u201cnew\u201d by product of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Table<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s really happening is that \u201cextreme events have become a political football. Climate advocacy has emphasized connecting extreme events with climate change, promoting the idea that \u2018every tenth of degree\u2019 of global temperature increase is associated with more extreme events and more disasters. If only we reduce emissions, the argument goes, we can also modulate extreme weather. In this logic, every extreme event becomes about energy use, and not about exposure, vulnerability, and the local decisions that have seen disaster deaths drop to their lowest in human history. EEA has been central to such advocacy\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a sleight of hand: instead of improving resilience, strengthening infrastructure, or investing in risk reduction\u2014the things that actually save lives\u2014policy is redirected into the dead end of emission controls and carbon accounting. EEA, according to Pielke, is now \u201ccentral to such advocacy,\u201d and the takeover of the IPCC chapter ensures that this will be the party line for years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the most important takeaway is that this transformation is not merely a \u201cscientific debate.\u201d It represents the replacement of scientific skepticism with groupthink and advocacy, all dressed up as expertise. \u201cScientific assessment can be challenging in the best of circumstances. When an assessment is taken over to serve politics it ceases to be an assessment and turns into something else\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pielke\u2019s article, in short, is a wakeup call. The so-called \u201csettled science\u201d is more unsettled than ever, and the very structures meant to provide honest assessment are being repurposed for advocacy. The cost, inevitably, will be paid in public trust, misallocated resources, and a continued failure to address the real drivers of disaster risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s an old saying in science: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The new IPCC, sadly, seems content to settle for extraordinary press releases. The public deserves better. It\u2019s time to ask, loudly, whose interests are really being served by this shift\u2014and to demand a return to genuine scientific skepticism before the last shreds of credibility are gone for good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Roger Pielke Jr.\u2019s\u00a0\u201cA Takeover of the IPCC\u201d\u00a0offers a timely post-mortem on what\u2019s left of scientific rigor in the world\u2019s most influential climate assessment body, of which Pielke Jr. has long been a supporter. The article chronicles not just a change in personnel at the IPCC, but a seismic shift in methodology and purpose\u2014a transformation best described as a hostile takeover by advocates of \u201cExtreme Event Attribution\u201d (EEA). The implications for public policy, scientific integrity, and even the basic credibility of climate science are staggering, and long overdue for public scrutiny.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":397660,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691837468,691837478,691818056,691837479,691837480,691818228,691821642],"class_list":{"0":"post-397652","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-extreme-event-attribution-eea-2","9":"tag-climate-and-extremes","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-da-framework","12":"tag-flooding-in-pakistan","13":"tag-fossil-fuels","14":"tag-ipcc-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1FrK","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":397419,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397419","url_meta":{"origin":397652,"position":0},"title":"A Takeover of the IPCC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just released the\u00a0names of its authors\u00a0for its seventh assessment report (AR7). 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