{"id":397419,"date":"2025-08-24T12:08:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-24T10:08:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397419"},"modified":"2025-08-24T12:08:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-24T10:08:14","slug":"a-takeover-of-the-ipcc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397419","title":{"rendered":"A Takeover of the IPCC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"397427\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397427\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1280,1280\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA (1)\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>The IPCC&#8217;s longstanding framework for detection and attribution looks DOA in AR7<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just released the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apps.ipcc.ch\/report\/authors\/\">names of its authors<\/a>\u00a0for its seventh assessment report (AR7). The author list for its Chapter 3 \u2014\u00a0<em>Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 suggests strongly that the IPCC will be shifting from its longstanding focus on detection and attribution (D&amp;A) of extreme events to a focus on \u201cextreme event attribution\u201d (EEA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/a-takeover-of-the-ipcc?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">Roger Pielke Jr.<\/a> has the story.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s first briefly clarify how these concepts are different and why the difference matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The IPCC D&amp;A framework follows from its definition of \u201cclimate change\u201d as a change in the statistics of weather over long time periods, typically many decades.\u00a0<em>Detection<\/em>\u00a0refers to identifying such a change.\u00a0<em>Attribution<\/em>\u00a0refers to identifying causes of that change. For most extreme weather phenomena, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/we-dont-need-no-stinking-science\">IPCC has not achieved\u00a0<\/a>detection or attribution with high confidence and does not expect to for most this century.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In part due to the IPCC\u2019s failure to achieve D&amp;A for most types of extreme events, the notion of EEA was invented to connect specific weather events with changes in climate and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/weather-attribution-alchemy\">characterized as an effort to get into the media and support climate litigation<\/a>. Most EEA work is published outside of the scientific literature, announced by press release, and is typically contrary to peer-reviewed research on extreme events.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The D&amp;A framework is scientifically rigorous, consistent with the IPCC\u201ds definition of climate change, and treats extreme events in the same manner as other phenomena, like global temperatures and sea level rise. The EEA approach is scientifically problematic, inconsistent with the IPCC\u2019s findings on extreme weather, and is explicitly grounded in climate advocacy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IPCC AR6 was decidedly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/weather-attribution-alchemy\">lukewarm to freezing cold<\/a>&nbsp;on the notion of EEA, and emphasized the traditional D&amp;A framework. Those days may now be over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">World Weather Attribution (WWA) co-founder Frederika Otto has been put in charge of the chapter, along with another academic who focuses on extreme event attribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Otto&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/news\/267695\/imperial-researchers-take-leading-role-major\/\">explains<\/a>&nbsp;today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m a coordinating lead author. This means leading the chapter, and ultimately being responsible for making it happen. It\u2019ll be a lot of work, but it also gives a lot of opportunity to shape the structure and focus of the chapter.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chapter\u2019s author list shows that it is stacked with people who focus on extreme event attribution \u2014 far out of proportion to their presence in the field. With the help of Google Scholar and ChatGPT I created the table below, which shows that 9 of the chapter\u2019s 20 authors focus their research on extreme event attribution. Two of the three coordinating lead authors focus on EEA. Few of the authors, if any, have expertise in the IPCC\u2019s conventional framework for detection and attribution, and some have no publications on either detection or attribution.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"488\" height=\"900\" data-attachment-id=\"397425\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=397425\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-476.png?fit=488%2C900&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"488,900\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-476.png?fit=488%2C900&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-476.png?resize=488%2C900&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A table listing authors of the IPCC chapter on extreme event attribution, including their names, focus on extreme event attribution publications, and notes on their contributions.\" class=\"wp-image-397425\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-476.png?w=488&amp;ssl=1 488w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/image-476.png?resize=163%2C300&amp;ssl=1 163w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 488px) 100vw, 488px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">IPCC AR7 authors for WG1 Chapter 3, Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes. Highlighted rows indicate researchers who have published on extreme event attribution. The three entries at the top are the coordinating lead authors of the chapter. I assume that each of these scientists are excellent at what they do and sincere in their beliefs \u2014 However, they represent a highly concentrated subset of perspectives on extreme events, one explicitly focused on climate advocacy and litigation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of note, in addition to Otto, the chapter includes a second WWA collaborator. The Bezos Earth Fund partially funds WWA along with the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/attribution-stealth-advocacy-at-the\">U.S. National Academy of Sciences ongoing study of extreme event attribution<\/a>. At least five of the 20 chapter authors have\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/attribution-stealth-advocacy-at-the\">participated in some way in that study<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Read the full story <a href=\"https:\/\/rogerpielkejr.substack.com\/p\/a-takeover-of-the-ipcc?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email\">here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just released the\u00a0names of its authors\u00a0for its seventh assessment report (AR7). The author list for its Chapter 3 \u2014\u00a0Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes\u00a0\u2014 suggests strongly that the IPCC will be shifting from its longstanding focus on detection and attribution (D&#038;A) of extreme events to a focus on \u201cextreme event attribution\u201d (EEA).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":397427,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the IPCC's shift from detection and attribution to extreme event attribution in AR7. Understand the implications for climate science.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"IPCC's Shift from Detection to Attribution in AR7 Explained","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691837468,691818056,691819743,691827534,691820922,691837469,691834206],"class_list":["post-397419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-extreme-event-attribution-eea-2","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-propaganda","tag-extreme-events","tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","tag-ipcc-da-framework","tag-world-weather-attribution-wwa","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQN8E73mBIeJ79BE64oOwpgHrEoSyrULkNvH71IBO_mZ-qC9TT56xklCfqmbKBgyyUuH0SiFQnL0RA97mkkP-gt4iwKb3cGby9hHl1IrYhMenazzDXdlq4RY91HfC4fLWJZVAxkCgmGcMTsLCwfKPZDwSEAaCA-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1FnZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":397652,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397652","url_meta":{"origin":397419,"position":0},"title":"Pielke Jr. \u2013A Takeover of the IPCC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/25\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Roger Pielke Jr.\u2019s\u00a0\u201cA Takeover of the IPCC\u201d\u00a0offers a timely post-mortem on what\u2019s left of scientific rigor in the world\u2019s most influential climate assessment body, of which Pielke Jr. has long been a supporter. The article chronicles not just a change in personnel at the IPCC, but a seismic shift in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cExtreme event attribution\u201d (EEA)\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cExtreme event attribution\u201d (EEA)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=extreme-event-attribution-eea-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMj8yHR8Be8RHSFGKLFy_bflKmAnzt8LM1X7piKEL-2ElU5jZObEOU6HGGBGI1E2OSwUBxyA7Arc4WJhfFb9P6XGZu9UVClDsD0gxlikkhHBUYvuFviW7TVKMhjRH4de4-fyUz9zWF8pT6BR0uNlanT4P2Wpg.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":398682,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=398682","url_meta":{"origin":397419,"position":1},"title":"Beware Claims Attributing Extreme Events to\u00a0Hydrocarbons","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/29\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just released the names of its authors for its seventh assessment report (AR7). The author list for its Chapter 3 \u2014 Changes in regional climate and extremes, and their causes \u2014 suggests strongly that the IPCC will be shifting from its longstanding\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Central (CC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Central (CC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-central-cc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMftlemxtqUzUpTqSFddzeJWDW3keQOeviRYVZp6kR0_N5EBF5gUWScpL1rcnrzL8llPbZLH_v_0EQCJsm5RCBaK4MLIZ9d1KNnLmW_UlTRRr8aIShnwpZX-Vmdvog_17wn8BQPVmelV9Ey2fK_A7IGIAhTHQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMftlemxtqUzUpTqSFddzeJWDW3keQOeviRYVZp6kR0_N5EBF5gUWScpL1rcnrzL8llPbZLH_v_0EQCJsm5RCBaK4MLIZ9d1KNnLmW_UlTRRr8aIShnwpZX-Vmdvog_17wn8BQPVmelV9Ey2fK_A7IGIAhTHQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMftlemxtqUzUpTqSFddzeJWDW3keQOeviRYVZp6kR0_N5EBF5gUWScpL1rcnrzL8llPbZLH_v_0EQCJsm5RCBaK4MLIZ9d1KNnLmW_UlTRRr8aIShnwpZX-Vmdvog_17wn8BQPVmelV9Ey2fK_A7IGIAhTHQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMftlemxtqUzUpTqSFddzeJWDW3keQOeviRYVZp6kR0_N5EBF5gUWScpL1rcnrzL8llPbZLH_v_0EQCJsm5RCBaK4MLIZ9d1KNnLmW_UlTRRr8aIShnwpZX-Vmdvog_17wn8BQPVmelV9Ey2fK_A7IGIAhTHQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/AQMftlemxtqUzUpTqSFddzeJWDW3keQOeviRYVZp6kR0_N5EBF5gUWScpL1rcnrzL8llPbZLH_v_0EQCJsm5RCBaK4MLIZ9d1KNnLmW_UlTRRr8aIShnwpZX-Vmdvog_17wn8BQPVmelV9Ey2fK_A7IGIAhTHQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":441863,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=441863","url_meta":{"origin":397419,"position":2},"title":"&#8220;Frustrating and Disappointing&#8221;: IPCC Leaves Bangkok Without AR7 Roadmap","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/29\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The IPCC's 64th Plenary Session took place in Bangkok, Thailand, from March 24\u201327, 2026, at the UNESCAP headquarters. Nearly 300 delegates from member governments and observers attended to advance the Seventh Assessment Report (AR7) cycle, discuss the 2026 workplan for the three Working Groups, and review the organization's Principles and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\"best available science\"\"","block_context":{"text":"\"best available science\"","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=best-available-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-generate-an-image-Frustrating-and-Disappointing-IPCCs-Bangkok-Plenary-Ends-in-Total-Failure-on-AR7-Roadmap4.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-generate-an-image-Frustrating-and-Disappointing-IPCCs-Bangkok-Plenary-Ends-in-Total-Failure-on-AR7-Roadmap4.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-generate-an-image-Frustrating-and-Disappointing-IPCCs-Bangkok-Plenary-Ends-in-Total-Failure-on-AR7-Roadmap4.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":408592,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=408592","url_meta":{"origin":397419,"position":3},"title":"Bunk from the Brink","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/16\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Over at\u00a0The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather have taken on the role of self-appointed sheriffs of climate science, at times in highly partisan and personal terms. 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