{"id":397255,"date":"2025-08-23T20:13:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:13:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397255"},"modified":"2025-08-23T20:13:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-23T18:13:13","slug":"natural-gas-price-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=397255","title":{"rendered":"Natural Gas Price\u00a0Trends"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Illustration<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is a general consensus nowadays that gas prices are \u201chigh\u201d and this is why electricity prices are also \u201chigh\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But exactly how \u201chigh\u201d are natural gas prices?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line
https:\/\/www.ofgem.gov.uk\/news-and-insight\/data\/data-portal\/wholesale-market-indicators<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We all know of course that natural gas prices spiked just before the Ukraine war started, but they also fell back rapidly during the following 12 months or so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In June this year, according to OFGEM, wholesale gas prices were 86.28p\/therm, compared to 46.10p in January 2015, an increase of 87%. But we have also had something called inflation in the last ten years. Since January 2015, RPI has risen by 58%, so the real increase is much smaller than supposed:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Line
https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/inflationandpriceindices\/timeseries\/chaw\/mm23<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The following chart takes out the inflationary effect and shows some very interesting results:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we can see, real prices this year are no higher than they were in 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As with all commodities, gas prices are always volatile, following the vagaries of supply and demand. Prices fell sharply in 2015 and 2016 as a result of a glut of supply. You may recall the price spikes between 2012 and 2014 when demand exceeded supply. That led to wells reopening and a glut, the seemingly never ending cycle we see in markets like oil and mining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices obviously dipped to ridiculously low levels during COVID lockdowns as demand evaporated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But ignoring COVID and Ukraine, current gas prices are not excessive by historical standards, and therefore cannot explain why electricity prices are so high now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow I\u2019ll do the same exercise with electricity markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is a general consensus nowadays that gas prices are \u201chigh\u201d and this is why electricity prices are also \u201chigh\u201d.
\nBut exactly how \u201chigh\u201d are natural gas prices?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":397263,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819691,691818069,691820065],"class_list":["post-397255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-electricity-prices","tag-gas-prices","tag-ofgem","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Fll","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":260283,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260283","url_meta":{"origin":397255,"position":0},"title":"Surging New England Energy Prices: No Surprise","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"New England home heating and electricity prices are on the rise with no end in sight. 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